OKpowdah Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The last 24 hours of model runs have certainly had a few interesting outcomes / trends. A number of factors here that need to be considered for this forecast problem. 1) The Friday trough ... amplitude, speed, etc. ... that is our "50/50" low 2) Shortwave diving through the Midwest around the same general vortex on Saturday morning 2/18 ... some model runs actually keyed in on this s/w to phase (or attempt phasing) with the southern energy 3) More s/w energy in Manitoba within the west side of the vortex that may or may not amplify into a lobe off the vortex. ... this is where the vortex gets stretched, which is a decent idea considering upper level flow on the south side of the vortex accelerates from ~40kt over the Midwest to 150kt+ blasting off the east coast. 4) The southern energy ...amplitude, speed, etc. ... pretty classic Gulf coast low in formation on all the model guidance. 5) Shortwave in the Central Plains Saturday morning ... this has generally been the "popular choice" for the models at this point for the key northern s/w. 6) Shortwave upstream of (5) in southern Canada ... I think a few runs this weekend wanted to key in on this one, but that idea has flown. Now the Euro wants to phase it into the western vortex energy (3)... 7) Another pesky s/w coming onshore in the west kicking things eastward, and preventing an amplified western ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 That about sums it up..lol. However, despite the cluster fook look, a few s/w's aren't far off from something a little more important. It's not a monumental task. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 We should get 2 and 6 to party with 4 and 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I will take #2 with a phase with #4.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I'll take 1-3 phased into one 50/50 low with a side of 6&7 phased of of the Mid-Atl heading NE and stalling SE of ACK. 4&5 can go piss in the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 We should get 2 and 6 to party with 4 and 5. I'm thinking 3 and 6 with 4 and 5. Shear 2 out of the picture into the forming vort lobe centered around 1 But yeah, the interactions between all these disturbances are sure to provide a number of different solutions over the next 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I'm thinking 3 and 6 with 4 and 5. Shear 2 out of the picture into the forming vort lobe centered around 1 But yeah, the interactions between all these disturbances are sure to provide a number of different solutions over the next 5 days. Haha, yeah that's what I meant. What a weenie convo..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 pesky but nice work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I'm willing to sacrifice Friday if we get a huge one on Sunday that destroys everyone. I'm not willing to sacrifice Friday for some pos that slides ene of the mid atlantic....I just want that known up front...been there done that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 it's been a winter where phasing has been weak and we need phasing for this to work. good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 18z GFS is another step better, but focusing on all nrn stream stuff. It's tough to say if it's even right since there is so many things that could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Inv trough look to it on sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Inv trough look to it on sunday Oh, yea! Those have really worked out this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Oh, yea! Those have really worked out this winter Yeah real well, Thats why i don't buy it, Its the 1st model run to show it plus they are not usually handeld well until close in if at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 oh, okay, there is a thread then - I posted on this next system in that other thread. NCEP was all over this system. It's uncertian how much N- stream phasing there will be... What is interesting about that, much of that will actually be determined by the amount of S/W potency riding underneath the SPV dangling in wait up over Ontario... These subsume scenarios take place because the SPVs in question were essentially held in check by the geopotential medium riding out at lower latitudes... But when the S/W incurs a weakness in that field south, such as drilling a stronger S -stream impulse through, down she comes... This is best illustrated by Feb 1978, and that debacle MA ghost storm of all ages, March 2001. These are both classic subsume scenarios, where southern stream really induced the SPV out of its den - "dont' wake the sleeping bear" - so to speak. There are some appeals about this - the 12z Euro in particular was darn close. You could see at 144 hours the N -stream just wants to ...it's begging to, but doesn't make the switch. The UKMET is has yet a strong southern stream system, but it lacks the N -stream SPV material and ops for an open tripple wave look. Kind of weird... The GFS has been persistently lacking any S -stream potency and going with all N -steam. The GFS is just an open N -stream wave with not much S -stream to work with ...a little though. With that much variety in depicted stream interaction, ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 One of my classic favs, inverted trough of venereal disease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 LOL, nice hit in the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 LOL, nice hit in the GEFS. Yeah, Better then the op, With all the pieces involved we are going to see a variety of solutions for a few more days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 Excellent post John. The GFS has been keying in on shortwave #3 for the last two runs. It focused on #2 in the 00z and 06z runs. So really reliable runs here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 GEFS are giving more support to the srn vortmax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yeah, Better then the op, With all the pieces involved we are going to see a variety of solutions for a few more days I was just going to post that... wow... There has to be a couple of MECS's in the individual members there...Its interesting Scott, the GFS op completely vanishes the Southern Vort on the 18z run. It was pretty potent too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 WOW! Does anyone have individual members for the GFS ensemble yet? The southern energy is much more amplified in the MEAN than on the op, and just looking at the smoothed mean heights, I would guess a few members at least come close to dropping the PV lobe into the trough and produce something big. Wow, great to see this on the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 It might be the GFS loving to crush srn stream energy. That's why you have ensembles, they are a lot better than the op at day 6. Anyways, having the 18z GEFS on board at day 6 is not exactly comforting, but I think the threat has some legs for now. Tonight's guidance should be interesting, but I wouldn't expect massive jumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 It might be the GFS loving to crush srn stream energy. That's why you have ensembles, they are a lot better than the op at day 6. Anyways, having the 18z GEFS on board at day 6 is not exactly comforting, but I think the threat has some legs for now. Tonight's guidance should be interesting, but I wouldn't expect massive jumps. This probabaly deserves a weenie but sometimes the 18z GFS can be the first to sniff out some of these large scale threats.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 This must be a real KU monster on the 18z control run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 The GEFS mean for 144hr. Classic Northeast snowstorm height pattern, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The EC ensembles were west of 00z, but still east of the OP, so scooter caution flags are advised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The GEFS mean for 144hr. Classic Northeast snowstorm height pattern, FWIW. It even has the little low height anomaly east of Nova Scotia. Not a bad look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 DT holding chat's about this storm already...It's going to be a looooooooongggg 6 days. That is unless 00z loses the storm completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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