BristowWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 So the Euro ensembles are more amped up...interesting development...can't stick a fork in it until 12z Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 http://www.americanw...ost__p__1370679 Interesting note about the ensembles. Someone had mentioned that the GFS ensembles had new physics implemented as of today's 12z suite - anyone care to elaborate? I'm not trying to weenie my way out of the solution they provided or anything like that...just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Interesting note about the ensembles. Someone had mentioned that the GFS ensembles had new physics implemented as of today's 12z suite - anyone care to elaborate? I'm not trying to weenie my way out of the solution they provided or anything like that...just curious. http://www.nws.noaa....ncrease_aab.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I think we need to keep an open mind about this. I know that sounds stupid, but this seems to be an evolving situation. The GFS first started this thing as being a Sat event, iirc, and now 6 of its 12z ensemble members have low pressure in the vicinity of the Fla panhandle/northern Fla on Monday morning. I think what we actually see from sat-mon could end up any number of ways different from what we are seeing modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Interesting note about the ensembles. Someone had mentioned that the GFS ensembles had new physics implemented as of today's 12z suite - anyone care to elaborate? I'm not trying to weenie my way out of the solution they provided or anything like that...just curious. The big change was in the resolution of the model for the ensemble members (from T190L28 to T254L42). The physics were changed to (finally!) match the same set that the OP is using (though things behave differently at lower resolution). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 yeah the ens mean isnt that bad on the euro.. comparatively at least. .25"+ into PA... .5"+ starts about 30-50 mi south of dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 yeah the ens mean isnt that bad on the euro.. comparatively at least. .25"+ into PA... .5"+ starts about 30-50 mi south of dc. I like the idea (expressed by others) that we'll likely see the models converge in a day or so on a solution that fringes us and slides the storm OTS and then we hope for a north move in the last 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Our PAC s/w makes it onshore tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I like the idea (expressed by others) that we'll likely see the models converge in a day or so on a solution that fringes us and slides the storm OTS and then we hope for a north move in the last 60 hours. surface temps would be a concern in a fringe imo tho perhaps they'll be just cold enough. the euro ens is pretty torchy at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 surface temps would be a concern in a fringe imo tho perhaps they'll be just cold enough. the euro ens is pretty torchy at the surface. That new hp over the eastern lakes has made me feel a bit better about our low level cold. Hopefully it remains and strengthens in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 You need to call up HPC. They seem to think that it won't become clear until Friday at the earliest. Maybe you could help them out. for a Major storm that beings on Saturday night or Sunday morning....You should know by Wednesday 00z that its coming. What big storm do you remember that was only modeled 2 days out where Thursday there was nothing...Friday showed a storm and then the storm started 48-60 hours later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 for a Major storm that beings on Saturday night or Sunday morning....You should know by Wednesday 00z that its coming. What big storm do you remember that was only modeled 2 days out where Thursday there was nothing...Friday showed a storm and then the storm started 48-60 hours later? 12/26/10 oh right we did not get that , but everyone else did and that is what the models showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 12/26/10 oh right we did not get that , but everyone else did and that is what the models showed. It seems to me most of the coastals that trend better at the last minute are "late bloomers" that miss us and swing around to nail SNE. Painful stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Raven Your right..the dec 26 storm came back to life 48 hours before the event. Forgot about that one..and for good reason:( The feb 2006 storm had nothing till Wednesday noon runs and that storm started Saturday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Raven Your right..the dec 26 storm came back to life 48 hours before the event. Forgot about that one..and for good reason:( The feb 2006 storm had nothing till Wednesday noon runs and that storm started Saturday evening You're right.........I recall the Feb 2006 MECS rapidly trending better as the storm approached. Easily the most satisfying event in years, possibly since PDII. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Raven Your right..the dec 26 storm came back to life 48 hours before the event. Forgot about that one..and for good reason:( The feb 2006 storm had nothing till Wednesday noon runs and that storm started Saturday evening If it still shows OTS by 0Z tomorrow night then it is probably time to pack it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Yeah but wasn't the 12/26/10 system modeled a few days before then the models lost it and brought it back again. It wasn't like it was never there before and then just appeared 48 hours before the event. If i remember correctly it was modeled and then lost but it was no where near as strong as it ended up when it was first modeled. It means nothing for this system and who knows how this will end up we just have to wait till probably tomorrow night or Thursday and then we will know. No sense in trying to find other events that happened in the past, that has no bearing on this outcome nor was the setup or the factors the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 for a Major storm that beings on Saturday night or Sunday morning....You should know by Wednesday 00z that its coming. What big storm do you remember that was only modeled 2 days out where Thursday there was nothing...Friday showed a storm and then the storm started 48-60 hours later? I don't think many of us are banking on a major storm here. Our socks could get knocked off with tonight's and tomorrow's runs but I think todays 12z suite added some clarity. Flow is consistenly being modeled a bit flat to think we have a decent chance at a solid hammering. I'm just focused on the hp around the lakes to deliver just enough cold air and having the system bloom large enough over nc/va tidewater to put us in a solid .25.50 stripe. Off topic a bit but this is one odd nina. If you look at the snow depths in the colorado rockies it just doesn't paint a nina picture. I saw this earlier this year but was told that regular nina climo should kick in later in the season. Here we are in mid Feb and another string of closed lows keep cruising through the sw and adding to the precip totals in az, nm, and sw colorado. I guess the good part about this is that it's indicative of a healthy split flow and that's exactly what we need to get a decent event in the ma. Of course I'm hoping that tonight's and tomorrow's runs build on a more amped system but I have plenty reservations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Will be hugging the Dgex from here on out.. lol.. Makes for a good laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Will be hugging the Dgex from here on out.. lol.. Makes for a good laugh. 138 hrs is RAIN on DGEX http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 18z GFS looks to have an actually northern vort this time compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 138 hrs is RAIN on DGEX You have stooped to a new low analyzing the DGEX . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 GFS is gonna do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 18z GFS looks to have an actually northern vort this time compared to 12z Im not sure how it will effect the run but its deff further south with the storm in the PAC NW, so the Ridge is a little south too, I would think good things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 18z GFS looks to have an actually northern vort this time compared to 12z Yes... good h5 energy in C TX at 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 18z low has plenty of juice down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Oh 18z GFS what are you about to do. It is way more amped up with the low this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 You have stooped to a new low analyzing the DGEX . simply clarifying the fact that the map posted looked like DGEX had a decent amount of snow when it doesn't it has some but not like that 144 hr map suggests Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Low is tracking through central GA...temps are warm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 wow at 114 way north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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