Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 we generally suck at timing. i could see it shift north without a phase but the way this winter has gone there's no reason to believe it can't just go east and ots. gulf lows are only exciting if they bring us moisture. I agree 100% with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I agree 100% with this. i was so close to getting onboard.. damn the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Most around here should know the drill. We won't have a good idea about this till probably 0z Friday. Safe bet is for us to either get fringed or a phase that's too late. Yesterday's Option B is a solid choice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 This sequence is pretty common. gfs latches into the "right" idea 1st but only after the euro has shown a version of that idea for several runs. Now what happens is we see which of the 2 big models brings this north enough to fringe us with decent enough QPF. It isn't like the track is settled at day 5. its always 1 step forward and 3 back. We can never build off good runs. The GFS and the euro have never agreed on any snow events this year and no matter what the model, the least snowiest solution has always won. Euro has too many dramatic shifts from run to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 No big ridge out west can't help matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 i was so close to getting onboard.. damn the euro Its really funny that last weekend we had what appeared to be a good shot at accumulating snow and the storm fizzled; now we have it looking like its not going to happen - watch the change as we come close to the end of the week when the euro/gfs come north. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Road trip to Greensboro, NC? In other news, the Euro has an all out blizzard for Chicago day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Road trip to Greensboro, NC? In other news, the Euro has an all out blizzard for Chicago day 10. there's our storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 JMA a miss to the south fwiw, but not by a whole lot; Days 5 & 6 http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_120HR.gif http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_144HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 JMA a miss to the south fwiw, but not by a whole lot; Days 5 & 6 http://grib2.com/jma...HKPRP_120HR.gif http://grib2.com/jma...HKPRP_144HR.gif very wet for the deep south. Lets hope today is rock bottom for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 very wet for the deep south. Lets hope today is rock bottom for us it'll score the coup or will simply have been the first model to lead us on another wild goose chase this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Friday is too late. We will know by tomorrow at 00z. Euro folds like a house of cards again to GFS when GFS shows no snow and euro shows snow You need to call up HPC. They seem to think that it won't become clear until Friday at the earliest. Maybe you could help them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 So the Euro ensembles are more amped up...interesting development...can't stick a fork in it until 12z Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 http://www.americanw...ost__p__1370679 Interesting note about the ensembles. Someone had mentioned that the GFS ensembles had new physics implemented as of today's 12z suite - anyone care to elaborate? I'm not trying to weenie my way out of the solution they provided or anything like that...just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Interesting note about the ensembles. Someone had mentioned that the GFS ensembles had new physics implemented as of today's 12z suite - anyone care to elaborate? I'm not trying to weenie my way out of the solution they provided or anything like that...just curious. http://www.nws.noaa....ncrease_aab.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I think we need to keep an open mind about this. I know that sounds stupid, but this seems to be an evolving situation. The GFS first started this thing as being a Sat event, iirc, and now 6 of its 12z ensemble members have low pressure in the vicinity of the Fla panhandle/northern Fla on Monday morning. I think what we actually see from sat-mon could end up any number of ways different from what we are seeing modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Interesting note about the ensembles. Someone had mentioned that the GFS ensembles had new physics implemented as of today's 12z suite - anyone care to elaborate? I'm not trying to weenie my way out of the solution they provided or anything like that...just curious. The big change was in the resolution of the model for the ensemble members (from T190L28 to T254L42). The physics were changed to (finally!) match the same set that the OP is using (though things behave differently at lower resolution). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 yeah the ens mean isnt that bad on the euro.. comparatively at least. .25"+ into PA... .5"+ starts about 30-50 mi south of dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 yeah the ens mean isnt that bad on the euro.. comparatively at least. .25"+ into PA... .5"+ starts about 30-50 mi south of dc. I like the idea (expressed by others) that we'll likely see the models converge in a day or so on a solution that fringes us and slides the storm OTS and then we hope for a north move in the last 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Our PAC s/w makes it onshore tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I like the idea (expressed by others) that we'll likely see the models converge in a day or so on a solution that fringes us and slides the storm OTS and then we hope for a north move in the last 60 hours. surface temps would be a concern in a fringe imo tho perhaps they'll be just cold enough. the euro ens is pretty torchy at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 surface temps would be a concern in a fringe imo tho perhaps they'll be just cold enough. the euro ens is pretty torchy at the surface. That new hp over the eastern lakes has made me feel a bit better about our low level cold. Hopefully it remains and strengthens in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 You need to call up HPC. They seem to think that it won't become clear until Friday at the earliest. Maybe you could help them out. for a Major storm that beings on Saturday night or Sunday morning....You should know by Wednesday 00z that its coming. What big storm do you remember that was only modeled 2 days out where Thursday there was nothing...Friday showed a storm and then the storm started 48-60 hours later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 for a Major storm that beings on Saturday night or Sunday morning....You should know by Wednesday 00z that its coming. What big storm do you remember that was only modeled 2 days out where Thursday there was nothing...Friday showed a storm and then the storm started 48-60 hours later? 12/26/10 oh right we did not get that , but everyone else did and that is what the models showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 12/26/10 oh right we did not get that , but everyone else did and that is what the models showed. It seems to me most of the coastals that trend better at the last minute are "late bloomers" that miss us and swing around to nail SNE. Painful stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Raven Your right..the dec 26 storm came back to life 48 hours before the event. Forgot about that one..and for good reason:( The feb 2006 storm had nothing till Wednesday noon runs and that storm started Saturday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Raven Your right..the dec 26 storm came back to life 48 hours before the event. Forgot about that one..and for good reason:( The feb 2006 storm had nothing till Wednesday noon runs and that storm started Saturday evening You're right.........I recall the Feb 2006 MECS rapidly trending better as the storm approached. Easily the most satisfying event in years, possibly since PDII. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Raven Your right..the dec 26 storm came back to life 48 hours before the event. Forgot about that one..and for good reason:( The feb 2006 storm had nothing till Wednesday noon runs and that storm started Saturday evening If it still shows OTS by 0Z tomorrow night then it is probably time to pack it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 for a Major storm that beings on Saturday night or Sunday morning....You should know by Wednesday 00z that its coming. What big storm do you remember that was only modeled 2 days out where Thursday there was nothing...Friday showed a storm and then the storm started 48-60 hours later? Major is unlikely unless we include the busts/reverse busts of 1/25/00 and 3/5/01 but some modest reverse busts were poorly modeled close to the event 12/5/02, 1/25/04, 2/25/07, 12/5/07, 1/30/10 were all overperformers. If we want to include busts 1/22/05, 12/26/10 also. But I think you were looking for events that trended our way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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