yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 108 has big broad low over n gom or just onshore. last run had it over s alabama. not as amped still. CoastalWx said that is flatter than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 114 has broad stretched low from panhandle off east coast. last run had 1000 mb low over central ga. this run can't be as good as 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Phase but it won't come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Ian, will this run be as good as 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 120 has two surface centers.. one over s ga and the other off nc coast.. precip barely up to s va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 going ots at 126.. no precip north of very far se va it seems unless a little after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 going ots at 126.. no precip north of very far se va it seems unless a little after that Sounds like fairly good agreement with the other globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 storm much more stretched out.. still meandering ots with big elongated low east of nc at 132.. goes from 1"+ qpf to central outer banks off to nothing not too far north of va beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 No one knows whats happening with this one, useless to look at this range this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 this thing remains eerily similar to the storm or 2 this winter when GFS and Euro saw one in the LR and GFS lost in the MR first, with the Euro following suit a run or 2 later time to tell this winter to go to he!! and pray for this http://www.cpc.ncep....3/nino34Mon.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 It is pointless to become invested at this point. We really could go anywhere from pc to a snowstorm. Why are the models having so much trouble. Everything too fast? Too many pieces of energy? What's going on this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 It is pointless to become invested at this point. We really could go anywhere from pc to a snowstorm. Why are the models having so much trouble. Everything too fast? Too many pieces of energy? What's going on this year? Most around here should know the drill. We won't have a good idea about this till probably 0z Friday. Safe bet is for us to either get fringed or a phase that's too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 It is pointless to become invested at this point. We really could go anywhere from pc to a snowstorm. Why are the models having so much trouble. Everything too fast? Too many pieces of energy? What's going on this year? 1. Nina 2. Fast flow 3. No blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Most around here should know the drill. We won't have a good idea about this till probably 0z Friday. Safe bet is for us to either get fringed or a phase that's too late. Friday is too late. We will know by tomorrow at 00z. Euro folds like a house of cards again to GFS when GFS shows no snow and euro shows snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I think the threat is solid for Soutthern half of VA and part of Northern NC.. but i suspect some shift north at some point.. can DC, No VA, and MD get in on it? Nobody knows! EDIT: This post is worthless - but I felt like saying something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Friday is too late. We will know by tomorrow at 00z. Euro folds like a house of cards again to GFS when GFS shows no snow and euro shows snow the euro has done this a few times this yr. who cares since it's day 5 but it's hard to say it doesnt matter at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 the euro has done this a few times this yr. who cares since it's day 5 but it's hard to say it doesnt matter at all. usually its not good to have no storm as each day gets closer to the storm. Very discouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 usually its not good to have no storm as each day gets closer to the storm. Very discouraging. we generally suck at timing. i could see it shift north without a phase but the way this winter has gone there's no reason to believe it can't just go east and ots. gulf lows are only exciting if they bring us moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I agree 100% with this. i was so close to getting onboard.. damn the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Most around here should know the drill. We won't have a good idea about this till probably 0z Friday. Safe bet is for us to either get fringed or a phase that's too late. Yesterday's Option B is a solid choice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 This sequence is pretty common. gfs latches into the "right" idea 1st but only after the euro has shown a version of that idea for several runs. Now what happens is we see which of the 2 big models brings this north enough to fringe us with decent enough QPF. It isn't like the track is settled at day 5. its always 1 step forward and 3 back. We can never build off good runs. The GFS and the euro have never agreed on any snow events this year and no matter what the model, the least snowiest solution has always won. Euro has too many dramatic shifts from run to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 No big ridge out west can't help matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 i was so close to getting onboard.. damn the euro Its really funny that last weekend we had what appeared to be a good shot at accumulating snow and the storm fizzled; now we have it looking like its not going to happen - watch the change as we come close to the end of the week when the euro/gfs come north. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Road trip to Greensboro, NC? In other news, the Euro has an all out blizzard for Chicago day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Road trip to Greensboro, NC? In other news, the Euro has an all out blizzard for Chicago day 10. there's our storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 JMA a miss to the south fwiw, but not by a whole lot; Days 5 & 6 http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_120HR.gif http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_144HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 JMA a miss to the south fwiw, but not by a whole lot; Days 5 & 6 http://grib2.com/jma...HKPRP_120HR.gif http://grib2.com/jma...HKPRP_144HR.gif very wet for the deep south. Lets hope today is rock bottom for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 very wet for the deep south. Lets hope today is rock bottom for us it'll score the coup or will simply have been the first model to lead us on another wild goose chase this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Friday is too late. We will know by tomorrow at 00z. Euro folds like a house of cards again to GFS when GFS shows no snow and euro shows snow You need to call up HPC. They seem to think that it won't become clear until Friday at the earliest. Maybe you could help them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.