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Weekend Storm Discussion 2/18-2/19


stormtracker

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It is pointless to become invested at this point. We really could go anywhere from pc to a snowstorm. Why are the models having so much trouble. Everything too fast? Too many pieces of energy? What's going on this year?

Most around here should know the drill. We won't have a good idea about this till probably 0z Friday. Safe bet is for us to either get fringed or a phase that's too late.

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Most around here should know the drill. We won't have a good idea about this till probably 0z Friday. Safe bet is for us to either get fringed or a phase that's too late.

Friday is too late. We will know by tomorrow at 00z. Euro folds like a house of cards again to GFS when GFS shows no snow and euro shows snow

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Friday is too late. We will know by tomorrow at 00z. Euro folds like a house of cards again to GFS when GFS shows no snow and euro shows snow

the euro has done this a few times this yr. who cares since it's day 5 but it's hard to say it doesnt matter at all.

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usually its not good to have no storm as each day gets closer to the storm. Very discouraging.

we generally suck at timing. i could see it shift north without a phase but the way this winter has gone there's no reason to believe it can't just go east and ots. gulf lows are only exciting if they bring us moisture.

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This sequence is pretty common. gfs latches into the "right" idea 1st but only after the euro has shown a version of that idea for several runs. Now what happens is we see which of the 2 big models brings this north enough to fringe us with decent enough QPF. It isn't like the track is settled at day 5.

its always 1 step forward and 3 back. We can never build off good runs. The GFS and the euro have never agreed on any snow events this year and no matter what the model, the least snowiest solution has always won. Euro has too many dramatic shifts from run to run

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i was so close to getting onboard.. damn the euro

Its really funny that last weekend we had what appeared to be a good shot at accumulating snow and the storm fizzled; now we have it looking like its not going to happen - watch the change as we come close to the end of the week when the euro/gfs come north.

Rossi

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