eurojosh Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Nice long moisture flow from the carribean at 126hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Dave says too warm for VA because of no 50/50 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Surface low in southern GA vs central GA on the Euro, but exits off of the SC coast instead of coming up the coast on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Dave says too warm for VA because of no 50/50 low Considering yesterday he was claiming that SE VA was going to get heavy heavy snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Hot like hell on the surface though. I wouldn't worry about surface temps, that's the last thing to worry about and will likely be a function of dynamics. It's faster ejecting the energy out south, and not as prgressive with the PV and associated nrn stream energy, thus a more robust solution. Still some work to do, but makes you wonder what the 12z euro will show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 It's really not that bad. It is silly to look at temps this far out it does not mean much, i was just stating what it showed this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 oh just a 500 mile shift in the precip this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 oh just a 500 mile shift in the precip this run the h5 charts weren't even close.. 12z GFS was like a bajillion times better with the h5 energy and didn't come close to washing it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 ...And off to sea it goes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 All in all as good of a run as we could have hoped for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 the h5 charts weren't even close.. 12z GFS was like a bajillion times better with the h5 energy and didn't come close to washing it out but still OTS, it is better than 06z, but the solution and timing is the same as 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 but still OTS, it is better than 06z, but the solution and timing is the same as 00z I think it goes OTS cause of all that h5 energy shooting down into the Plains acting as a kicker... if we could get that to slow down a lil it should come closer to a EURO type solution... if I am wrong, correct me please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I think it goes OTS cause of all that h5 energy shooting down into the Plains acting as a kicker... if we could get that to slow down a lil it should come closer to a EURO type solution... if I am wrong, correct me please There is no block to the north on the GFS like the Euro shows. The weakened low up north on the Euro creates a ridge from low level waa which allows the system to come up the coast. The GFS doesn't have this feature, it is too zonal pushing it OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 How bout you take the meaningful aspects out of this run, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I don't know the answer to this - how many times do we get a storm coming up the coast when the following ridge axis is already crossing the Mississippi River? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 There is no block to the north on the GFS like the Euro shows. The weakened low up north on the Euro creates a ridge from low level waa which allows the system to come up the coast. The GFS doesn't have this feature, it is too zonal pushing it OTS. To explain further, the GFS is showing a low over NS of 984, 00z had the same low at 980. We need that low to be weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 oh just a 500 mile shift in the precip this run True dat, but imo it's more of a function of the gfs keying on the correct vorts and timing them better. It's probably a little unfair to say the gfs is terrible because of a 500 mile shift in 6 hours. I know exactly what your saying though but alot of folks here will not understand what just happened with the gfs. Euro sniffed the connection first and now the gfs is starting to see the same thing. Man I hate a relatively flat flow with vorts just zipping along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I'm liking this 1028 High to the nw myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Perfect run for the GFS at this time frame. Reminds me a bit of the 12/19/2009 set up and the model frustrations that we had in the day 4/5 timeframe with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I will wait to see the GFS ensembles. When the GFS is as inconsistent with key features as it has been, particularly at this range, the ensembles can be a more reliable indicator of storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I don't know the answer to this - how many times do we get a storm coming up the coast when the following ridge axis is already crossing the Mississippi River? I don't think often unless the trough closes off but that is a pretty weak ridge and without the s/w o the west The axis is probably further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 True dat, but imo it's more of a function of the gfs keying on the correct vorts and timing them better. It's probably a little unfair to say the gfs is terrible because of a 500 mile shift in 6 hours. I know exactly what your saying though but alot of folks here will not understand what just happened with the gfs. Euro sniffed the connection first and now the gfs is starting to see the same thing. Man I hate a relatively flat flow with vorts just zipping along. Hard to think that either one of them is on to anything reliable. This is still a long way out this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I don't know the answer to this - how many times do we get a storm coming up the coast when the following ridge axis is already crossing the Mississippi River? Probably not too many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Sorry Phineas... but the 12z GGEM looks interesting at 120. Expansive precip field and 1004 L near Mobile Bay/TLH. Will have to wait for 132 color... but 144 has a 989 low 600 miles or so east of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Sorry Phineas... but the 12z GGEM looks interesting at 120. Expansive precip field and 1004 L near Mobile Bay/TLH. Probably will be nothing... but I don't have 132/144 yet Nobody cares or should care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Hard to think that either one of them is on to anything reliable. This is still a long way out this year. Honestly, I think it is time to start "believing" in a sense. Sure alot can go wrong but it is very hard to discount what the gfs shows @ h5 now. Seeing both models converge on somthing similar with this type of setup is a bit encouraging. You can't really say one is out to lunch anymore.......now we have to say both are out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 I wish that kicker would go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I wish that kicker would go away. Dont we all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 12z UKIE has a 1010 L near TLH at 120... then at 144 I guess its the 972 L way up near Newfoundland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I will wait to see the GFS ensembles. When the GFS is as inconsistent with key features as it has been, particularly at this range, the ensembles can be a more reliable indicator of storm track. Should be interesting seeing the upgraded GEFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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