stormtracker Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Well, this is the best the OP GFS has looked for this storm, so I guess that's a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 too many shortwaves You said it! I've never seen such a winter where a "high frequency-low amplitude" pattern has persisted for this long. It is almost like we are seeing the "remnant vibrations" of the turmoil going on across Europe/Asia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 With -nao and 50 50 low...why is there a fast flow? Things should back up right with the blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Well, this is the best the OP GFS has looked for this storm, so I guess that's a plus. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 You said it! I've never seen such a winter where a "high frequency-low amplitude" pattern has persisted for this long. It is almost like we are seeing the "remnant vibrations" of the turmoil going on across Europe/Asia. Its worse this yr than last? Seems like a forever issue these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Baby steps. Yup. It got better sort of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Its worse this yr than last? Seems like a forever issue these days. Last year, with the build-up of cold air, we had a good gradient so we had waves amplify significantly, at least. This year just is a poor gradient and choppy flow...two bad things for a good cyclone. The sign came last year in October when we had that ridiculous SLP in the northern Plains. I don't know if you remember it but it was in the 950s in terms of SLP...perhaps a record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 With -nao and 50 50 low...why is there a fast flow? Things should back up right with the blocking? I agree with this but what the GFS is doing is how NC / VA get their famous snowstorms too. Giant 50-50 low and progressive Pacific kick the wave more East than North. At this time, there is only some indication that the next incoming trough will potentially cutoff somewhere over the Plains or Rockies. We need that to keep trending toward that solution to see a northward push. Of course, if you are in NC or VA, you are likely wishing for the current scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Of course, if you are in NC or VA, you are likely wishing for the current scenario. See Ji, no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I don't really buy the idea of a suppressed event......no real reasoning....I think Rain to snow for DC metro, 2-4".....amounts and street accumulation will depend on timing....so that's my 1st call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I don't really buy the idea of a suppressed event......no real reasoning....I think Rain to snow for DC metro, 2-4".....amounts and street accumulation will depend on timing....so that's my 1st call Would be good to see some continuity with the Euro even at this range. It's 12z keyed on different features than prior. If it holds or gets better this run might be able to believe a bitore. It does feel odd to see ppl have confidence at this pt given what has been repeated so often about models outside 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 FWIW, 00z GGEM has a 997 L off coast of NC by about 200 miles (I think east of ILM?) at 144 120 - 1007 L in W GOM... 132 waiting for color Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Would be good to see some continuity with the Euro even at this range. It's 12z keyed on different features than prior. If it holds or gets better this run might be able to believe a bitore. It does feel odd to see ppl have confidence at this pt given what has been repeated so often about models outside 72. With the previous storms this year, I think we were fighting a lot of large scale factors, that are actually in favor of us this time around. -NAO being one of the biggest improvements over past modeled snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Apparently the Ukie is also OTS, looks similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Apparently the Ukie is also OTS, looks similar to the GFS. Which is in complete opposite to its 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 With the previous storms this year, I think we were fighting a lot of large scale factors, that are actually in favor of us this time around. -NAO being one of the biggest improvements over past modeled snowstorms. i know that part. somewhere lost in my thousands of posts i said i liked the period after this weekend better than this last weekend for a lot of those types of reasons. but as far as i can tell we've seen a huge array of solutions with only a few that get us this far noth in any meaningful way. i know the "usual trends" etc. but the flow across the conus is still pretty darn flat overall unless we time something nearly perfectly. as bad as the models have been they've been good at showing us not getting snow we we're not getting snow. at some point once we're in a real range we probably want to see more of them showing us getting snow. to me the euro move was fairly significant if it holds.. so im not totally off any storm at this pt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Which is in complete opposite to its 12z run Yup it sure is the 12Z came up the coast, sorry Yoda for talking about the models you have a copyright on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Would be good to see some continuity with the Euro even at this range. It's 12z keyed on different features than prior. If it holds or gets better this run might be able to believe a bitore. It does feel odd to see ppl have confidence at this pt given what has been repeated so often about models outside 72. everybody should have low confidence....Allan Huffman has posted a composite in the past for NC snowstorms and it is a more stable look than that IIRC....The GOM low seems to be incredibly well modeled in advance from what I have seen...my hunch is we get precip and timing and BL will be issues.....I wont be up for the euro but I would favor it over the GFS at this range....though no model will have a correct solution yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The UKMET and GGEM blow. Who cares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The UKMET and GGEM blow. Who cares? So the GFS and EURO are the only 2 models we should care about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 So the GFS and EURO are the only 2 models we should care about? It is really just his way of asking for the new Australian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 So the GFS and EURO are the only 2 models we should care about? Yes. The other models are bush league jokes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 It is really just his way of asking for the new Australian. If I was a Canadian or British taxpayer I'd be protesting over my government spending my tax dollars on a nonsensical product with maps I can't even read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 everybody should have low confidence....Allan Huffman has posted a composite in the past for NC snowstorms and it is a more stable look than that IIRC....The GOM low seems to be incredibly well modeled in advance from what I have seen...my hunch is we get precip and timing and BL will be issues.....I wont be up for the euro but I would favor it over the GFS at this range....though no model will have a correct solution yet The gom idea is well modeled I don't think the evolution is as much. Having lots of n/s vorts might give various opportunities for phasing etc but theyre also going to make it harder for amplification if not. I dunno.. Hopefully the euro gives more clarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 If I was a Canadian or British taxpayer I'd be protesting over my government spending my tax dollars on a nonsensical product with maps I can't even read. They must be smarter there then we are here. Except for the GGEM color maps i cannot read either of those models. Seriously a red tagger posted the Australian yesterday showing it has a storm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The gom idea is well modeled I don't think the evolution is as much. Having lots of n/s vorts might give various opportunities for phasing etc but theyre also going to make it harder for amplification if not. I dunno.. Hopefully the euro gives more clarity. Euro is probably more skilled at this range with a complex pattern than any other model....so I'd favor its solution, though no model output means a whole lot at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Euro is probably more skilled at this range with a complex pattern than any other model....so I'd favor its solution, though no model output means a whole lot at this range it's also been wrong in this range a number of times.. not that it's right but more the idea. i know what you mean about the models but you could not offer a 2-4" forecast at 5-6 days out without them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 it's also been wrong in this range a number of times.. not that it's right but more the idea. i know what you mean about the models but you could not offer a 2-4" forecast at 5-6 days out without them. It was a first guess not a first call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 It was a first guess not a first call. forecast - to predict (a future condition or occurrence); calculate in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 forecast - to predict (a future condition or occurrence); calculate in advance I know genius i was referrring to his post that said first call. Thank you Mr. Webster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.