Ice Warrior commander Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I hope this works out for you guys. It looks good for you on the 00Z EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Can't we just have the storm tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I hope something works out so people quit s--ting on this pattern reversal that for time being has only benefited the other side of the world! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Sorry, I was under the impression that a Miller B was also a storm that tracked up the ohio valley from the gulf and redeveloped a surface low along the mid-atlantic coast, with a horizantal energy transfer to the coastal. Anyway, it's not all that important. I believe kocin has some Miller Bs in his book that hit DCA, but I'll have to double check that. If the low in the OH Valley remained dominant before redevelopment on the coast then many would consider it a Miller B....but this one clearly doesn't. You mentioned ATL which is nowhere close to the OH Valley...if we had a 1000mb low over Cincinnati and a 1005mb over HSE, then it would be much more Miller B-ish...but we have nothing close to that. DCA can get hit in Miller Bs but most of the time they are left out of the best snow...but Feb 10, 2010 was one that smoked them, also March 1960 was really a Miller B but got DC area pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If the low in the OH Valley remained dominant before redevelopment on the coast then many would consider it a Miller B....but this one clearly doesn't. You mentioned ATL which is nowhere close to the OH Valley...if we had a 1000mb low over Cincinnati and a 1005mb over HSE, then it would be much more Miller B-ish...but we have nothing close to that. DCA can get hit in Miller Bs but most of the time they are left out of the best snow...but Feb 10, 2010 was one that smoked them, also March 1960 was really a Miller B but got DC area pretty good. Okay. I guess I'm just noting the fact that it hits the apps in Georgia and that's when it transfers the energy to the coastal which takes over, and these types of storms seem to be a rare event for the mid-atlantic. Miller A with coastal redevelopment it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 euro says we do it again the following weekend....very active run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Okay. I guess I'm just noting the fact that it hits the apps in Georgia and that's when it transfers the energy to the coastal which takes over, and these types of storms seem to be a rare event for the mid-atlantic. Miller A with coastal redevelopment it is. Its not a very rare development.....most of them do that...look at PDII...look at Jan 1996...most of them have some semblance of a low west of the apps, but the main gulf storm never really loses its punch....its simply the CAD reflecting on the sfc pressure....its when the low becomes so dominant that it turns the ML flow out of the south at a high speed for a long period when it becomes more of a Miller B. This isn't that and neither those storms obviously otherwise they would have been more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Okay. I guess I'm just noting the fact that it hits the apps in Georgia and that's when it transfers the energy to the coastal which takes over, and these types of storms seem to be a rare event for the mid-atlantic. Miller A with coastal redevelopment it is. it doesnt do that at all...it takes a classic miller A track...there is no redevelopment....it never occludes or weakens....AtL to NC/SC border to Hatteras....there is no transfer....at best and this is a stretch there is a center jump (see KU book) along the same track....it is a miller A and couldnt be more of one....it isnt even close to a miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 it doesnt do that at all...it takes a classic miller A track...there is no redevelopment....it never occludes or weakens....AtL to NC/SC border to Hatteras....there is no transfer....at best and this is a stretch there is a center jump (see KU book) along the same track....it is a miller A and couldnt be more of one....it isnt even close to a miller B The CAD in the apps always makes it look like a Miller B if you aren't familiar with it...but yeah, its not a classic redeveloping Miller B that screws DCA like Jan 12 last winter....usually those are very clear. You get a squall line of precip or just a few hours while northeast is getting hit hard. This is mostly southern stream like an El Nino....the southern stream here is simulating a classic STJ shortwave so that is why DC has a chance in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Also split flow zwyts like we talked about earlier in how to get DC a good storm in a La Nina....need split flow...and here it is...the biggest reason is that southern stream can simulate the classic STJ we see in a Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 it doesnt do that at all...it takes a classic miller A track...there is no redevelopment....it never occludes or weakens....AtL to NC/SC border to Hatteras....there is no transfer....at best and this is a stretch there is a center jump (see KU book) along the same track....it is a miller A and couldnt be more of one....it isnt even close to a miller B Yep, I just brought up the 1996 maps, and it took the same general track - and that was a Miller A. I stand corrected, and exhausted. Goodnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Also split flow zwyts like we talked about earlier in how to get DC a good storm in a La Nina....need split flow...and here it is...the biggest reason is that southern stream can simulate the classic STJ we see in a Nino. the 48 hr panel on the ecmwf site is closest though not ideal to a classic split flow with a ULL or trough off the coast of BC...in this case it is a transient feature as is the whole pattern but it assists in separating the streams....usually you also want to see a decen ridge to thr northwest or a block to north like 1/25/00 but the idea is there....and you do get stream separation downstream and they can then interact in cool ways..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 the 48 hr panel on the ecmwf site is closest though not ideal to a classic split flow with a ULL or trough off the coast of BC...in this case it is a transient feature as is the whole pattern but it assists in separating the streams....usually you also want to see a decen ridge to thr northwest or a block to north like 1/25/00 but the idea is there....and you do get stream separation downstream and they can then interact in cool ways..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 the 48 hr panel on the ecmwf site is closest though not ideal to a classic split flow with a ULL or trough off the coast of BC...in this case it is a transient feature as is the whole pattern but it assists in separating the streams....usually you also want to see a decen ridge to thr northwest or a block to north like 1/25/00 but the idea is there....and you do get stream separation downstream and they can then interact in cool ways..... Its not classic which is why we're unlikely to see KU type totals out of this..but a moderate event can be manufactured out of this. I'd be surprised if we got a KU...that would be phenomenal and crazy in this pattern....it probably going to be a mod event for someone and some localized 10-12" totals if it happens and doesn't squirt out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Its not classic which is why we're unlikely to see KU type totals out of this..but a moderate event can be manufactured out of this. I'd be surprised if we got a KU...that would be phenomenal and crazy in this pattern....it probably going to be a mod event for someone and some localized 10-12" totals if it happens and doesn't squirt out to sea. I have liked 3" for MBY for a few days now...I'll stick with that though depending on timing the 0Z solutions might be closer to a 4-6" wet snow event for me if they were realized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You guys going back and forth is the best read on the forum right now. Of course, that is easily said when the medium range thread continues to have TNE post drivel. If it wasn't for the occasional Don post, that thread would be the worst on the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I have liked 3" for MBY for a few days now...I'll stick with that though depending on timing the 0Z solutions might be closer to a 4-6" wet snow event for me if they were realized I could see that for you...I could also see 10" for you or 0" for you too...this is such a high variance system. If you happen to stumble into the 6"+ range or get 0" while NE gets 10" then this setup will probably go into the "near miss" section of the next KU edition of whenever it comes out (maybe 2015-2016 he has said). There's some classic looks there but some really unclassic looks too....the ATL is pretty nice south of the NAO region. But its block is kind of weak, which allows for some bullying. The PAC looks marginal at best...the ridge is there in the Rockies, but its transient and a bit far east for classic KUs. So most likely this ends up as a non-KU but has a legit chance for a near miss which in this season is probably a win...but it depends on where you are for the "near miss". There are KUs that defied the rules too as we know. 1/25/00 which you already brought up defied most rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Its not classic which is why we're unlikely to see KU type totals out of this..but a moderate event can be manufactured out of this. I'd be surprised if we got a KU...that would be phenomenal and crazy in this pattern....it probably going to be a mod event for someone and some localized 10-12" totals if it happens and doesn't squirt out to sea. I think you are right that anything 12"+ is likely to be confined to a smaller area instead of the great classic KU storms where a widespread area sees 12"+ with a smaller area of 24"+ .... Even if this thing has the most robust phasing, it may even tend to work out that way with precip type issues and the highest totals would end up well inland away from the higher population centers, reducing the score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think you are right that anything 12"+ is likely to be confined to a smaller area instead of the great classic KU storms where a widespread area sees 12"+ with a smaller area of 24"+ .... Even if this thing has the most robust phasing, it may even tend to work out that way with precip type issues and the highest totals would end up well inland away from the higher population centers, reducing the score. Yeah even a 18z GFS solution that crushed my backyard with 17" of snow....its not going to be a KU...because NYC to DCA population centers get very little...BOS does pretty well, but BOS metro has had countless 10" storms without sniffing KU status. This doesn't have the KU look to it, but as I mentioned to zwyts neither did 1/25/00...so surprises can always happen. But likely this is a moderate to heavy event for some lucky people and won't be anything but a memory in 5 years...it will go under the zwyts (or ORHwxman if it hits NE) "which storm was most underrated in the last 5 years" category....but in a winter like this...I think a 4-8" snowfall is a big deal and that's why all of us are here. Hopefully someone scores 10-13" out of this and it ends up surprising most....but we have so many things to figure out before even thinkinh an advisory snowfall for a large population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yeah even a 18z GFS solution that crushed my backyard with 17" of snow....its not going to be a KU...because NYC to DCA population centers get very little...BOS does pretty well, but BOS metro has had countless 10" storms without sniffing KU status. This doesn't have the KU look to it, but as I mentioned to zwyts neither did 1/25/00...so surprises can always happen. But likely this is a moderate to heavy event for some lucky people and won't be anything but a memory in 5 years...it will go under the zwyts (or ORHwxman if it hits NE) "which storm was most underrated in the last 5 years" category....but in a winter like this...I think a 4-8" snowfall is a big deal and that's why all of us are here. Hopefully someone scores 10-13" out of this and it ends up surprising most....but we have so many things to figure out before even thinkinh an advisory snowfall for a large population. As we inch closer to the event, we can start ironing out the details of where the best potential for a heavy band / CSI will be and possibly who will be the lucky people who see the big snows; although, I would imagine that this snow will be wet and those people may not be so lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 As we inch closer to the event, we can start ironing out the details of where the best potential for a heavy band / CSI will be and possibly who will be the lucky people who see the big snows; although, I would imagine that this snow will be wet and those people may not be so lucky. Marginal airmasses stink usually....but that can produce, Feb '87 did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Jesus I saw ORH doing all this Miller B talk and I thought the Euro had really screwed us somehow. Kurtstack, stay in school. Anyway, awesome 00Z suite for us. I'm sure it won't last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Jesus I saw ORH doing all this Miller B talk and I thought the Euro had really screwed us somehow. Kurtstack, stay in school. Anyway, awesome 00Z suite for us. I'm sure it won't last. You are prob in a good spot right now at 600 feet in NE MD...I think this whiffs usw more than it destroys ORH with 14" of snow...good for there. I don't root for it, but its looking decent there, but a long way to go. Euro ensemble mean is pretty nice for DC area and esp the interior usual spots. Still a lot of spread, but not nearly as much as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orangewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Jesus I saw ORH doing all this Miller B talk and I thought the Euro had really screwed us somehow. Kurtstack, stay in school. Anyway, awesome 00Z suite for us. I'm sure it won't last. thata boy! the type of spirit that brings us closer and holds this place together! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 6z GFS even better.... Over 1" QPF for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 6z GFS even better.... Over 1" QPF for DC Cutoff on meaningful precip is extreme at the Mason Dixon line. Could travel 50 miles and see a difference of half a foot to a dusting or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Good thing it's the NAM @ 84 because it shows Richmond as the northern extent of the precip and most of that would probably be wet instead of white except for western sections of VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 231 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012 VALID 12Z MON FEB 20 2012 - 12Z THU FEB 23 2012 ...MODELS CONVERGING ON SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR MID ATLANTIC DAY 3... USED THE 12Z/15 ECENS MEAN FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...WITH MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE 00Z/16 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF FOR THE EAST COAST SYSTEM DAY 3. THE ECENS MEAN HAS PROVIDED THE STEADIEST SYNOPTIC SCALE GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD FOR MANY MODEL CYCLES NOW...WITH THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS FINALLY CONVERGING TOWARD ITS MASS FIELDS. THE GFS AND UKMET...WHICH HAD SHOWN GREATER INTERACTION WITH THE SPLIT STREAMS OVER THE EAST DAY 3...ARE NOW STAGGERING THE TIMING OF THE WAVES TOWARD THE BALANCE DEPICTED BY THE ECENS MEAN. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE SPREAD...THE GEM GLOBAL AND DETERMINISTIC ECMWF...WHICH HAD LARGELY SUPPRESSED THE SOUTHERN STREAM...ARE NOW SHIFTING TOWARD THE ECENS MEAN BALANCE AS WELL. THE WINTRY WEATHER POTENTIAL OF THE MID ATLANTIC SYSTEM HAS SOME STRONG CLIMATOLOGY BEHIND IT...NOT ONLY FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT ALSO THE ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE TRACK OF THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. OVER THE WEST...THE SPLIT STREAMS SHOW NO SIGNS OF RECONFIGURING...WITH THE UPSHOT NO PROLONGED AND WIDESPREAD ONSHORE FLOW EVENTS THIS FORECAST. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 6z GFS even better.... Over 1" QPF for DC 6z looked nice. Really nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Bristow....it did? Looked warm to me, and rainy, with the "nice" portion of it for interior PA etc. Not that I am bumming, the overnight discussions of the Euro/GFS/Ukie etc. were great to wake up to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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