PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Jesus I saw ORH doing all this Miller B talk and I thought the Euro had really screwed us somehow. Kurtstack, stay in school. Anyway, awesome 00Z suite for us. I'm sure it won't last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Jesus I saw ORH doing all this Miller B talk and I thought the Euro had really screwed us somehow. Kurtstack, stay in school. Anyway, awesome 00Z suite for us. I'm sure it won't last. You are prob in a good spot right now at 600 feet in NE MD...I think this whiffs usw more than it destroys ORH with 14" of snow...good for there. I don't root for it, but its looking decent there, but a long way to go. Euro ensemble mean is pretty nice for DC area and esp the interior usual spots. Still a lot of spread, but not nearly as much as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orangewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Jesus I saw ORH doing all this Miller B talk and I thought the Euro had really screwed us somehow. Kurtstack, stay in school. Anyway, awesome 00Z suite for us. I'm sure it won't last. thata boy! the type of spirit that brings us closer and holds this place together! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 6z GFS even better.... Over 1" QPF for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 6z GFS even better.... Over 1" QPF for DC Cutoff on meaningful precip is extreme at the Mason Dixon line. Could travel 50 miles and see a difference of half a foot to a dusting or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Good thing it's the NAM @ 84 because it shows Richmond as the northern extent of the precip and most of that would probably be wet instead of white except for western sections of VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 231 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012 VALID 12Z MON FEB 20 2012 - 12Z THU FEB 23 2012 ...MODELS CONVERGING ON SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR MID ATLANTIC DAY 3... USED THE 12Z/15 ECENS MEAN FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...WITH MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE 00Z/16 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF FOR THE EAST COAST SYSTEM DAY 3. THE ECENS MEAN HAS PROVIDED THE STEADIEST SYNOPTIC SCALE GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD FOR MANY MODEL CYCLES NOW...WITH THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS FINALLY CONVERGING TOWARD ITS MASS FIELDS. THE GFS AND UKMET...WHICH HAD SHOWN GREATER INTERACTION WITH THE SPLIT STREAMS OVER THE EAST DAY 3...ARE NOW STAGGERING THE TIMING OF THE WAVES TOWARD THE BALANCE DEPICTED BY THE ECENS MEAN. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE SPREAD...THE GEM GLOBAL AND DETERMINISTIC ECMWF...WHICH HAD LARGELY SUPPRESSED THE SOUTHERN STREAM...ARE NOW SHIFTING TOWARD THE ECENS MEAN BALANCE AS WELL. THE WINTRY WEATHER POTENTIAL OF THE MID ATLANTIC SYSTEM HAS SOME STRONG CLIMATOLOGY BEHIND IT...NOT ONLY FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT ALSO THE ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE TRACK OF THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. OVER THE WEST...THE SPLIT STREAMS SHOW NO SIGNS OF RECONFIGURING...WITH THE UPSHOT NO PROLONGED AND WIDESPREAD ONSHORE FLOW EVENTS THIS FORECAST. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 6z GFS even better.... Over 1" QPF for DC 6z looked nice. Really nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Bristow....it did? Looked warm to me, and rainy, with the "nice" portion of it for interior PA etc. Not that I am bumming, the overnight discussions of the Euro/GFS/Ukie etc. were great to wake up to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Bristow....it did? Looked warm to me, and rainy, with the "nice" portion of it for interior PA etc. Not that I am bumming, the overnight discussions of the Euro/GFS/Ukie etc. were great to wake up to. ?? It's in the 20s for a good portion of the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hmmmm, maybe I was looking at a previous run and need to clear my cache. Oops, that was it. My bad all, ignore the tired person. Yes, that was a nice run in terms of consistency from the overnite runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looks like we now have some consistency across the board. From quick glances it seems that the GFS and Euro are in some agreement. I'd feel alot better if the 84 NAM was on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looks like we now have some consistency across the board. From quick glances it seems that the GFS and Euro are in some agreement. I'd feel alot better if the 84 NAM was on board. I like the fact that ALL the models are basically within 50-100 miles of each other and resemble the ensembles. Makes me think large swings are less likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The relevant discussion from lwx: .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIPRES BUILDS IN FRI...PASSING OVHD FRI NGT AND OFFSHORE SAT. DESPITE CAA...DWNSLPG FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS ABV NRML THRU SAT. MAXIMA SHUD REACH U40S-M50S AND MINIMA FCST TO RNG FROM U20S-M30S. SFC LOPRES ASSOCIATED WITH UPR TROF IN SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE FROM DEEP SOUTH SAT INTO SRN PORTIONS OF MID-ATLC SAT NGT. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN FCST TO MOVE N/E OFF MID-ATLC COAST ON SUN. 0Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN FCSTG CYCLONE TO INTERACT WITH NRN STREAM SHRTWV TROF...CREATING A STRONGER LOPRES WITH A TRACK FARTHER N...CLOSER TO CWA. THIS WARRANTS INCRG POPS TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY ACRS RGN SAT NGT/SUN...WITH GREATEST POPS ACRS SRN ZONES. VERTICAL THICKNESSES/H8 TEMPS LOOK COLD ENUF TO SUPPORT SNOW ...BUT SFC/LLVL TEMPS APPEAR RELATIVELY WARM UNLESS SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICAL COOLG OCCURS. KEPT PTYPE RN/SN MIX FOR MOST OF CWA...WITH MOSTLY SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MAINLY RAIN E OF I-95. UNCERTAINTY IS STILL HIGH IN WKEND FCST...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW DOES APPEAR PSBL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Wow, just looked at the 06Z GFS. Way colder than 0Z and wetter too. Please let this hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Wow, just looked at the 06Z GFS. Way colder than 0Z and wetter too. Please let this hold. ya' beat me by a minute for this year, it's d@mn cold EDIT: forgot to add, we even have some breathing room for that inevitable last minute north drift/shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32727-weekend-storm-discussion-part-ii-218-219/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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