midatlanticweather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Thanks for the posts all! Exciting! Looking for a Radio Show sometime in the near future! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 euro snow maps ric 2-4 dc ezf cho roa 4-8 wva va line area 8-12 HGR area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 ooooh - IMBY - IAD? Just kidding! But it may be good to do the full run down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 HGR area? ~ 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Dave is getting excited: *** ALERT WEATHER DISCUSSION - 0Z 16 FEB EUROPEAN MODEL RIN *** New 0z euro is coming in with a LARGE MUCH MUCH MUCH WETTER storm... the Upper air feature in the southern jet stream develops NEGATIVE TILT -- wow... which is thing Meteorologists looks look that tells us a MAJOR LOW is forming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 the entire DC area gets flush pounded...4-8" storm..onto tomorrow Thanks Matt for your PBP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I guess this is the type of Miller B that can actually work for this region. A rare event indeed. This is not a Miller B storm with cyclogenesis in the West GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 the entire DC area gets flush pounded...4-8" storm..onto tomorrow This storm would be great revenge for October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 ~ 4-6 Pretty good thanks. According to DT this storm is not north.. Guess it shifted south then.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is not a Miller B storm with cyclogenesis in the West GOM. Yeah this is about as Miller A as you can get unless there is much more signifant northern stream interaction to produce a meaningful low in the Oh Valley/Lakes...which is not applicable to this run of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 the entire DC area gets flush pounded...4-8" storm..onto tomorrow hell of a set of 0z runs, glad im heading to canaan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Not going to get into the details of a miller B, but when a storm makes a jump from Atlanta to Hatteras, that's typically been referred to as a Miller B. But you are the red tag, so I'll let it go. Yeah you should If this was a true miller B, you wouldn't be nearly as excited for a possible snowstorm in the Mid Atlantic and my arse would be in the New England forum. But all kidding aside, this run of the ECMWF is a classic Miller A man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Not going to get into the details of a miller B, but when a storm makes a jump from Atlanta to Hatteras, that's typically been referred to as a Miller B. But you are the red tag, so I'll let it go. No, a Miller B is not very technical, but the definition has always been an OH Valley/Lakes system primary that develops a coastal from that point..usually somewhere off Hatteras or the Delmarva, but sometimes later like S of LI off NJ...but the original idea of it from Miller himself of a Miller B was an OH Valley area storm that redeveloped (and it was assumed that included the southern lakes too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Not going to get into the details of a miller B, but when a storm makes a jump from Atlanta to Hatteras, that's typically been referred to as a Miller B. But you are the red tag, so I'll let it go. There is no "jump", its simply the track of the storm, I'd defer to HM on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I hope this works out for you guys. It looks good for you on the 00Z EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Can't we just have the storm tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I hope something works out so people quit s--ting on this pattern reversal that for time being has only benefited the other side of the world! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Sorry, I was under the impression that a Miller B was also a storm that tracked up the ohio valley from the gulf and redeveloped a surface low along the mid-atlantic coast, with a horizantal energy transfer to the coastal. Anyway, it's not all that important. I believe kocin has some Miller Bs in his book that hit DCA, but I'll have to double check that. If the low in the OH Valley remained dominant before redevelopment on the coast then many would consider it a Miller B....but this one clearly doesn't. You mentioned ATL which is nowhere close to the OH Valley...if we had a 1000mb low over Cincinnati and a 1005mb over HSE, then it would be much more Miller B-ish...but we have nothing close to that. DCA can get hit in Miller Bs but most of the time they are left out of the best snow...but Feb 10, 2010 was one that smoked them, also March 1960 was really a Miller B but got DC area pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If the low in the OH Valley remained dominant before redevelopment on the coast then many would consider it a Miller B....but this one clearly doesn't. You mentioned ATL which is nowhere close to the OH Valley...if we had a 1000mb low over Cincinnati and a 1005mb over HSE, then it would be much more Miller B-ish...but we have nothing close to that. DCA can get hit in Miller Bs but most of the time they are left out of the best snow...but Feb 10, 2010 was one that smoked them, also March 1960 was really a Miller B but got DC area pretty good. Okay. I guess I'm just noting the fact that it hits the apps in Georgia and that's when it transfers the energy to the coastal which takes over, and these types of storms seem to be a rare event for the mid-atlantic. Miller A with coastal redevelopment it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Okay. I guess I'm just noting the fact that it hits the apps in Georgia and that's when it transfers the energy to the coastal which takes over, and these types of storms seem to be a rare event for the mid-atlantic. Miller A with coastal redevelopment it is. Its not a very rare development.....most of them do that...look at PDII...look at Jan 1996...most of them have some semblance of a low west of the apps, but the main gulf storm never really loses its punch....its simply the CAD reflecting on the sfc pressure....its when the low becomes so dominant that it turns the ML flow out of the south at a high speed for a long period when it becomes more of a Miller B. This isn't that and neither those storms obviously otherwise they would have been more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 it doesnt do that at all...it takes a classic miller A track...there is no redevelopment....it never occludes or weakens....AtL to NC/SC border to Hatteras....there is no transfer....at best and this is a stretch there is a center jump (see KU book) along the same track....it is a miller A and couldnt be more of one....it isnt even close to a miller B The CAD in the apps always makes it look like a Miller B if you aren't familiar with it...but yeah, its not a classic redeveloping Miller B that screws DCA like Jan 12 last winter....usually those are very clear. You get a squall line of precip or just a few hours while northeast is getting hit hard. This is mostly southern stream like an El Nino....the southern stream here is simulating a classic STJ shortwave so that is why DC has a chance in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Also split flow zwyts like we talked about earlier in how to get DC a good storm in a La Nina....need split flow...and here it is...the biggest reason is that southern stream can simulate the classic STJ we see in a Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 it doesnt do that at all...it takes a classic miller A track...there is no redevelopment....it never occludes or weakens....AtL to NC/SC border to Hatteras....there is no transfer....at best and this is a stretch there is a center jump (see KU book) along the same track....it is a miller A and couldnt be more of one....it isnt even close to a miller B Yep, I just brought up the 1996 maps, and it took the same general track - and that was a Miller A. I stand corrected, and exhausted. Goodnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 the 48 hr panel on the ecmwf site is closest though not ideal to a classic split flow with a ULL or trough off the coast of BC...in this case it is a transient feature as is the whole pattern but it assists in separating the streams....usually you also want to see a decen ridge to thr northwest or a block to north like 1/25/00 but the idea is there....and you do get stream separation downstream and they can then interact in cool ways..... Its not classic which is why we're unlikely to see KU type totals out of this..but a moderate event can be manufactured out of this. I'd be surprised if we got a KU...that would be phenomenal and crazy in this pattern....it probably going to be a mod event for someone and some localized 10-12" totals if it happens and doesn't squirt out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You guys going back and forth is the best read on the forum right now. Of course, that is easily said when the medium range thread continues to have TNE post drivel. If it wasn't for the occasional Don post, that thread would be the worst on the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I have liked 3" for MBY for a few days now...I'll stick with that though depending on timing the 0Z solutions might be closer to a 4-6" wet snow event for me if they were realized I could see that for you...I could also see 10" for you or 0" for you too...this is such a high variance system. If you happen to stumble into the 6"+ range or get 0" while NE gets 10" then this setup will probably go into the "near miss" section of the next KU edition of whenever it comes out (maybe 2015-2016 he has said). There's some classic looks there but some really unclassic looks too....the ATL is pretty nice south of the NAO region. But its block is kind of weak, which allows for some bullying. The PAC looks marginal at best...the ridge is there in the Rockies, but its transient and a bit far east for classic KUs. So most likely this ends up as a non-KU but has a legit chance for a near miss which in this season is probably a win...but it depends on where you are for the "near miss". There are KUs that defied the rules too as we know. 1/25/00 which you already brought up defied most rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Its not classic which is why we're unlikely to see KU type totals out of this..but a moderate event can be manufactured out of this. I'd be surprised if we got a KU...that would be phenomenal and crazy in this pattern....it probably going to be a mod event for someone and some localized 10-12" totals if it happens and doesn't squirt out to sea. I think you are right that anything 12"+ is likely to be confined to a smaller area instead of the great classic KU storms where a widespread area sees 12"+ with a smaller area of 24"+ .... Even if this thing has the most robust phasing, it may even tend to work out that way with precip type issues and the highest totals would end up well inland away from the higher population centers, reducing the score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think you are right that anything 12"+ is likely to be confined to a smaller area instead of the great classic KU storms where a widespread area sees 12"+ with a smaller area of 24"+ .... Even if this thing has the most robust phasing, it may even tend to work out that way with precip type issues and the highest totals would end up well inland away from the higher population centers, reducing the score. Yeah even a 18z GFS solution that crushed my backyard with 17" of snow....its not going to be a KU...because NYC to DCA population centers get very little...BOS does pretty well, but BOS metro has had countless 10" storms without sniffing KU status. This doesn't have the KU look to it, but as I mentioned to zwyts neither did 1/25/00...so surprises can always happen. But likely this is a moderate to heavy event for some lucky people and won't be anything but a memory in 5 years...it will go under the zwyts (or ORHwxman if it hits NE) "which storm was most underrated in the last 5 years" category....but in a winter like this...I think a 4-8" snowfall is a big deal and that's why all of us are here. Hopefully someone scores 10-13" out of this and it ends up surprising most....but we have so many things to figure out before even thinkinh an advisory snowfall for a large population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yeah even a 18z GFS solution that crushed my backyard with 17" of snow....its not going to be a KU...because NYC to DCA population centers get very little...BOS does pretty well, but BOS metro has had countless 10" storms without sniffing KU status. This doesn't have the KU look to it, but as I mentioned to zwyts neither did 1/25/00...so surprises can always happen. But likely this is a moderate to heavy event for some lucky people and won't be anything but a memory in 5 years...it will go under the zwyts (or ORHwxman if it hits NE) "which storm was most underrated in the last 5 years" category....but in a winter like this...I think a 4-8" snowfall is a big deal and that's why all of us are here. Hopefully someone scores 10-13" out of this and it ends up surprising most....but we have so many things to figure out before even thinkinh an advisory snowfall for a large population. As we inch closer to the event, we can start ironing out the details of where the best potential for a heavy band / CSI will be and possibly who will be the lucky people who see the big snows; although, I would imagine that this snow will be wet and those people may not be so lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 As we inch closer to the event, we can start ironing out the details of where the best potential for a heavy band / CSI will be and possibly who will be the lucky people who see the big snows; although, I would imagine that this snow will be wet and those people may not be so lucky. Marginal airmasses stink usually....but that can produce, Feb '87 did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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