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Weekend Storm Discussion 2/18-2/19


stormtracker

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I dont trust any model right now, but I lean heavily toward the euro and will continue to do so as long as it keeps a reasonable solution with some continuity...That said, it is entirely possible that the Euro is missing a phase that will bring the storm further north.....there wont be a consensus track til at least Friday.....and even after that there will be small shifts....FWIW, if the models show a track that fringes us I think that is ok....I expect that they will then jog north and west as the event nears.....I don't think we are going to get missed....

I agree and don't think we'll know but the NAmis not a bad solution. Too phased might give a GFS solution. It's a fine line the models have to tread. The northern shortwave has to get ahead of th esouthern one intially but not be so strong that it shoves the low track south. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro shift north tonight.

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