usedtobe Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I dont trust any model right now, but I lean heavily toward the euro and will continue to do so as long as it keeps a reasonable solution with some continuity...That said, it is entirely possible that the Euro is missing a phase that will bring the storm further north.....there wont be a consensus track til at least Friday.....and even after that there will be small shifts....FWIW, if the models show a track that fringes us I think that is ok....I expect that they will then jog north and west as the event nears.....I don't think we are going to get missed.... I agree and don't think we'll know but the NAmis not a bad solution. Too phased might give a GFS solution. It's a fine line the models have to tread. The northern shortwave has to get ahead of th esouthern one intially but not be so strong that it shoves the low track south. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro shift north tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Very juicy 1003 L at 66 over NO or just north of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't know how the GFS will turn out, but I like that wedge of cold air at 850 down into central VA at 66 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The NWS mag site sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't know how the GFS will turn out, but I like that wedge of cold air at 850 down into central VA at 66 hrs Going just by Matt's lol, it's probably not gonna help us. He has the panels right before we get them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't know how the GFS will turn out, but I like that wedge of cold air at 850 down into central VA at 66 hrs you're going to like it...trust me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The NWS mag site sucks Then don't use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 low is over se va at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 you're going to like it...trust me I heard it went off the VA coast please do tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 At 84h, 995 low over Norfolk...temps are close, but this is MUCH better than the previous solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Going just by Matt's lol, it's probably not gonna help us. He has the panels right before we get them it is a big step in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 you're going to like it...trust me Looks pretty good on Allan's site for northern VA and DC. Needs to be about 75 miles further east for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You guys do know Allan's site is out to 90 hrs already, right? ETA: 96 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 hr 90 looking much better for dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That's a nice and snowy look on the GFS for you, Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Sooo much better. @ 90h, a couple hundred miles E of Cape May - all of MD and VA in solid precip (.25-.50) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS just caved to the Euro, pretty much. Long live the King. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 it is a big step in the right direction see, I knew I'd make you a believer in the 84 hr NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Wow did not expect that at all, it's a shame it will change 10 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 QPF is bountiful....rain to heavy snow....It is a step... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Still snowing at 96. 988 low moving NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Dammit, I wanted to be in bed in 15 minutes. Ugh...I'm not staying up for the Euro, screw this. But yes, the gfs has moved in the right direction from what it sounds like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 QPF is bountiful....rain to heavy snow....It is a step... Yes, please dont shoot me but we have BL problems dont we. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yes, please dont shoot me but we have BL problems dont we. It would probably be a 32F paste job in the back end deformation area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yes, please dont shoot me but we have BL problems dont we. stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It would probably be a 32F paste job in the back end deformation area. But it better snow pretty good or it may not accumulate well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfssnow096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It would probably be a 32F paste job in the back end deformation area. I will take it after this winter thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 But it better snow pretty good or it may not accumulate well. thanks for the analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 http://raleighwx.ame...zgfssnow096.gif somebody should make a toilet paper roll out of these snow maps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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