Ji Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Actually, it looks Euro like Euro didn't even give us a cloud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Temps are not the worst I've ever seen...at the height of the precip the 850 line runs through RIC. BL is a big concern as usual though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well, I'm almost scared to comment on the NAM around here But anyway, analyzing the model...looks like a slight trend toward the GFS, but not as amped. A hair better for you folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=L Oh. Yeah, that's pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 verbatim, the NAM up to 84 hrs and beyond (check 700mb RH maps which along with the radar pick) confirm Matt gets his 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Who said NAM bad? Gives us a few inches with the potentail for more if it slows down the NRN stream. Did you want to see snow making it up to Syaracuse NYlike the GFS? When it snows there, it doesn't here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The NAM is advertising something close to a best case scenario. Need another slight north jog to get some heavier precip in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Blazing at the surface. I hate the elongated double barrell low. I want a slower, more consolidated LP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hey, for this time frame, 84 hours isn't that bad. Disclaimer....the NAM is a terrible model after 48 hours and is not to be trusted. I am just analyzing the current run. I was just about to make the same observation/analysis! All caveats aside, that's not a half-bad look. The unusually elongated closed low at 850-mb looks sort of strange, and it's got the dual lows along the AL/GA border and off the NC coast. But there's lots of precip and a decent high to our north along with a north-northeast flow (sfc and 850-mb). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hey, for this time frame, 84 hours isn't that bad. Disclaimer....the NAM is a terrible model after 48 hours and is not to be trusted. I am just analyzing the current run. Fantasy to look at at this range. The heck with that. The trends are more north. This thing is all over the place but if the euro trends at all that way you'd have to think that's a move you could put some faith in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I was going to comment on the NAM....but I won't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Blazing at the surface. I hate the elongated double barrell low. I want a slower, more consolidated LP. yeah, I'm waiting for soundings I know BWI is above freezing, but the freezing line is not far to the north at all no worse than what we had progged for Friday night and it turned to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 No please do... no point.....Let's move on to the GFS...I will admit I watched the run....beyond that no reason to waste any more time on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 yeah, I'm waiting for soundings I know BWI is above freezing, but the freezing line is not far to the north at all no worse than what we had progged for Friday night and it turned to snow You're in better shape there compared to my southness. If we can consolidate into one low, I like the chances or some accumulations. I'm riding a total shut out down here as of now. Still, I guess if that vort approaches to my SW we could get an inch or two back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 no point.....Let's move on to the GFS...I will admit I watched the run....beyond that no reason to waste any more time on it If the gfs and euro show a perfect solution will you trust them at 84? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This may be an obvious question here, but how much of our "fate" hinges on whatever front/northern stream going past initially? I recall the 12Z GFS had a killing low over Michigan which totally screwed things up for us, whereas the NAM (yes, 84 hours I know!) would have had the front through with the northern shortwave just before the southern stream system moved up...with decent high pressure in place. Similarly now, 00Z NAM pushes the northern vort through first. At least from my humble quick reading of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This NAM run is not bad. It is as close to a snowy system as we have seen this season. We have a LOW, we have some confluence to slow it down, there is a HIGH to the NW. Sure, there will be BL issues but it doesn't appear wire to wire rain, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This NAM run is not bad. It is as close to a snowy system as we have seen this season. We have a LOW, we have some confluence to slow it down, there is a HIGH to the NW. Sure, there will be BL issues but it doesn't appear wire to wire rain, either. Agree, this is about as good a set-up as we've seen this entire season (which does not say much!). No guarantee but it's about the best we can look to right now. I mean, when's the last time we had a real system to follow (i.e., not snizzle or white rain)...late October?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This NAM run is not bad. It is as close to a snowy system as we have seen this season. We have a LOW, we have some confluence to slow it down, there is a HIGH to the NW. Sure, there will be BL issues but it doesn't appear wire to wire rain, either. assuming for the sake of argument the NAM's depiction of precip is correct, it's showing at 7AM the surface temps are above freezing unless the precip falls hard, the BL will warm as the sun comes up remember what happened Saturday before the arctic front came through? hit 40 or 41 tough way to run a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If the gfs and euro show a perfect solution will you trust them at 84? I dont trust any model right now, but I lean heavily toward the euro and will continue to do so as long as it keeps a reasonable solution with some continuity...That said, it is entirely possible that the Euro is missing a phase that will bring the storm further north.....there wont be a consensus track til at least Friday.....and even after that there will be small shifts....FWIW, if the models show a track that fringes us I think that is ok....I expect that they will then jog north and west as the event nears.....I don't think we are going to get missed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If the gfs and euro show a perfect solution will you trust them at 84? The answer would likely be - more than the NAM at least. Not exactly down to all the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 assuming for the sake of argument the NAM's depiction of precip is correct, it's showing at 7AM the surface temps are above freezing unless the precip falls hard, the BL will warm as the sun comes up remember what happened Saturday before the arctic front came through? hit 40 or 41 tough way to run a winter The 1000mb-500mb thickness chart has the 540 line positioned ala climatology,* i.e. where it always seems to set up in marginal situations. Sure, Glen Burnie may struggle but north and west of the cities may get in on some good snow. *the usual disclaimer; 84 hr NAM; don't pay attention to individual features,etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 FWIW....NAM printout careful weenies, it's gunna' hurt so good BWI: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kbwi.txt DCA: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kdca.txt IAD: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kiad.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Low confidence prediction: Models converge on a general track idea by 0z runs tomorrow night...... Then they slowly jog north and west on Friday and Saturday... by Saturday afternoon models are printing out a general 0.5 - 0.75" for DC metro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Low confidence prediction: Models converge on a general track idea by 0z runs tomorrow night...... Then they slowly jog north and west on Friday and Saturday... by Saturday afternoon models are printing out a general 0.5 - 0.75" for DC metro.... snow or qpf? because it really could be either at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 snow or qpf? because it really could be either at this point It could also be both actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The answer would likely be - more than the NAM at least. Not exactly down to all the details. Yeah I guess that's true. I was just referring to the fact that this is volatile, we probably won't have any confidence for a while yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 snow or qpf? because it really could be either at this point QPF...my guess (very low confidence) is for DCA/BWI, we will have to do a 5:1 ratio on consensus QPF to allow for QPF inflation and rain and nonaccumulating snow....so in order for me to get 3", I want to see a stripe of dark blue over me by storm time..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It could also be both actually. yep, you're right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 yep, you're right At 51h, it looks to me like the GFS is gonna do it again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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