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Weekend Storm Discussion 2/18-2/19


stormtracker

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Hey, for this time frame, 84 hours isn't that bad. Disclaimer....the NAM is a terrible model after 48 hours and is not to be trusted. I am just analyzing the current run.

I was just about to make the same observation/analysis! All caveats aside, that's not a half-bad look. The unusually elongated closed low at 850-mb looks sort of strange, and it's got the dual lows along the AL/GA border and off the NC coast. But there's lots of precip and a decent high to our north along with a north-northeast flow (sfc and 850-mb).

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Hey, for this time frame, 84 hours isn't that bad. Disclaimer....the NAM is a terrible model after 48 hours and is not to be trusted. I am just analyzing the current run.

Fantasy to look at at this range.

The heck with that. The trends are more north. This thing is all over the place but if the euro trends at all that way you'd have to think that's a move you could put some faith in

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Blazing at the surface.

I hate the elongated double barrell low. I want a slower, more consolidated LP.

yeah, I'm waiting for soundings

I know BWI is above freezing, but the freezing line is not far to the north at all

no worse than what we had progged for Friday night and it turned to snow

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yeah, I'm waiting for soundings

I know BWI is above freezing, but the freezing line is not far to the north at all

no worse than what we had progged for Friday night and it turned to snow

You're in better shape there compared to my southness. If we can consolidate into one low, I like the chances or some accumulations. I'm riding a total shut out down here as of now. Still, I guess if that vort approaches to my SW we could get an inch or two back side.

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This may be an obvious question here, but how much of our "fate" hinges on whatever front/northern stream going past initially? I recall the 12Z GFS had a killing low over Michigan which totally screwed things up for us, whereas the NAM (yes, 84 hours I know!) would have had the front through with the northern shortwave just before the southern stream system moved up...with decent high pressure in place. Similarly now, 00Z NAM pushes the northern vort through first. At least from my humble quick reading of this.

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This NAM run is not bad. It is as close to a snowy system as we have seen this season.

We have a LOW, we have some confluence to slow it down, there is a HIGH to the NW.

Sure, there will be BL issues but it doesn't appear wire to wire rain, either.

Agree, this is about as good a set-up as we've seen this entire season (which does not say much!). No guarantee but it's about the best we can look to right now. I mean, when's the last time we had a real system to follow (i.e., not snizzle or white rain)...late October??

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This NAM run is not bad. It is as close to a snowy system as we have seen this season.

We have a LOW, we have some confluence to slow it down, there is a HIGH to the NW.

Sure, there will be BL issues but it doesn't appear wire to wire rain, either.

assuming for the sake of argument the NAM's depiction of precip is correct, it's showing at 7AM the surface temps are above freezing

unless the precip falls hard, the BL will warm as the sun comes up

remember what happened Saturday before the arctic front came through? hit 40 or 41

tough way to run a winter

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If the gfs and euro show a perfect solution will you trust them at 84?

I dont trust any model right now, but I lean heavily toward the euro and will continue to do so as long as it keeps a reasonable solution with some continuity...That said, it is entirely possible that the Euro is missing a phase that will bring the storm further north.....there wont be a consensus track til at least Friday.....and even after that there will be small shifts....FWIW, if the models show a track that fringes us I think that is ok....I expect that they will then jog north and west as the event nears.....I don't think we are going to get missed....

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assuming for the sake of argument the NAM's depiction of precip is correct, it's showing at 7AM the surface temps are above freezing

unless the precip falls hard, the BL will warm as the sun comes up

remember what happened Saturday before the arctic front came through? hit 40 or 41

tough way to run a winter

The 1000mb-500mb thickness chart has the 540 line positioned ala climatology,* i.e. where it

always seems to set up in marginal situations. Sure, Glen Burnie may struggle but north and

west of the cities may get in on some good snow.

*the usual disclaimer; 84 hr NAM; don't pay attention to individual features,etc.

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Low confidence prediction:

Models converge on a general track idea by 0z runs tomorrow night......

Then they slowly jog north and west on Friday and Saturday...

by Saturday afternoon models are printing out a general 0.5 - 0.75" for DC metro....

snow or qpf?

because it really could be either at this point

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snow or qpf?

because it really could be either at this point

QPF...my guess (very low confidence) is for DCA/BWI, we will have to do a 5:1 ratio on consensus QPF to allow for QPF inflation and rain and nonaccumulating snow....so in order for me to get 3", I want to see a stripe of dark blue over me by storm time.....

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