WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 no point.....Let's move on to the GFS...I will admit I watched the run....beyond that no reason to waste any more time on it If the gfs and euro show a perfect solution will you trust them at 84? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This may be an obvious question here, but how much of our "fate" hinges on whatever front/northern stream going past initially? I recall the 12Z GFS had a killing low over Michigan which totally screwed things up for us, whereas the NAM (yes, 84 hours I know!) would have had the front through with the northern shortwave just before the southern stream system moved up...with decent high pressure in place. Similarly now, 00Z NAM pushes the northern vort through first. At least from my humble quick reading of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This NAM run is not bad. It is as close to a snowy system as we have seen this season. We have a LOW, we have some confluence to slow it down, there is a HIGH to the NW. Sure, there will be BL issues but it doesn't appear wire to wire rain, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This NAM run is not bad. It is as close to a snowy system as we have seen this season. We have a LOW, we have some confluence to slow it down, there is a HIGH to the NW. Sure, there will be BL issues but it doesn't appear wire to wire rain, either. Agree, this is about as good a set-up as we've seen this entire season (which does not say much!). No guarantee but it's about the best we can look to right now. I mean, when's the last time we had a real system to follow (i.e., not snizzle or white rain)...late October?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This NAM run is not bad. It is as close to a snowy system as we have seen this season. We have a LOW, we have some confluence to slow it down, there is a HIGH to the NW. Sure, there will be BL issues but it doesn't appear wire to wire rain, either. assuming for the sake of argument the NAM's depiction of precip is correct, it's showing at 7AM the surface temps are above freezing unless the precip falls hard, the BL will warm as the sun comes up remember what happened Saturday before the arctic front came through? hit 40 or 41 tough way to run a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If the gfs and euro show a perfect solution will you trust them at 84? The answer would likely be - more than the NAM at least. Not exactly down to all the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 assuming for the sake of argument the NAM's depiction of precip is correct, it's showing at 7AM the surface temps are above freezing unless the precip falls hard, the BL will warm as the sun comes up remember what happened Saturday before the arctic front came through? hit 40 or 41 tough way to run a winter The 1000mb-500mb thickness chart has the 540 line positioned ala climatology,* i.e. where it always seems to set up in marginal situations. Sure, Glen Burnie may struggle but north and west of the cities may get in on some good snow. *the usual disclaimer; 84 hr NAM; don't pay attention to individual features,etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 FWIW....NAM printout careful weenies, it's gunna' hurt so good BWI: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kbwi.txt DCA: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kdca.txt IAD: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kiad.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Low confidence prediction: Models converge on a general track idea by 0z runs tomorrow night...... Then they slowly jog north and west on Friday and Saturday... by Saturday afternoon models are printing out a general 0.5 - 0.75" for DC metro.... snow or qpf? because it really could be either at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 snow or qpf? because it really could be either at this point It could also be both actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The answer would likely be - more than the NAM at least. Not exactly down to all the details. Yeah I guess that's true. I was just referring to the fact that this is volatile, we probably won't have any confidence for a while yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It could also be both actually. yep, you're right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 yep, you're right At 51h, it looks to me like the GFS is gonna do it again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I dont trust any model right now, but I lean heavily toward the euro and will continue to do so as long as it keeps a reasonable solution with some continuity...That said, it is entirely possible that the Euro is missing a phase that will bring the storm further north.....there wont be a consensus track til at least Friday.....and even after that there will be small shifts....FWIW, if the models show a track that fringes us I think that is ok....I expect that they will then jog north and west as the event nears.....I don't think we are going to get missed.... I agree and don't think we'll know but the NAmis not a bad solution. Too phased might give a GFS solution. It's a fine line the models have to tread. The northern shortwave has to get ahead of th esouthern one intially but not be so strong that it shoves the low track south. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro shift north tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Very juicy 1003 L at 66 over NO or just north of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't know how the GFS will turn out, but I like that wedge of cold air at 850 down into central VA at 66 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The NWS mag site sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't know how the GFS will turn out, but I like that wedge of cold air at 850 down into central VA at 66 hrs Going just by Matt's lol, it's probably not gonna help us. He has the panels right before we get them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The NWS mag site sucks Then don't use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 low is over se va at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 you're going to like it...trust me I heard it went off the VA coast please do tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 At 84h, 995 low over Norfolk...temps are close, but this is MUCH better than the previous solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 you're going to like it...trust me Looks pretty good on Allan's site for northern VA and DC. Needs to be about 75 miles further east for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You guys do know Allan's site is out to 90 hrs already, right? ETA: 96 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 hr 90 looking much better for dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That's a nice and snowy look on the GFS for you, Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Sooo much better. @ 90h, a couple hundred miles E of Cape May - all of MD and VA in solid precip (.25-.50) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS just caved to the Euro, pretty much. Long live the King. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 it is a big step in the right direction see, I knew I'd make you a believer in the 84 hr NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Wow did not expect that at all, it's a shame it will change 10 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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