Interstate Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 12z JMA wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I knew there was a reason why Buckeye was in our thread today hmmm let me think... 18z gfs vs. 12z euro snowblower stays tied under the tarp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Take a look @ h5 vorticity between 12z and 18z from 72-90 hrs. They both show the 3 pieces energy spread out from the gl to the mw down to the se coast. 18z slows down the middle piece of energy and leaves it behind the ns and ss vorts. NS vort is stronger this run and pulls the phase further north and now we have an absolute terrible 850 track. I know I sound like a broken record with this stuff but just run through the h5 vort panels. Very complicated. Slightest diffs in timing and strength = crazy swing is solution. I don't have access to h5 vort panels for the euro so I can't compare. Did the 12z run show 3 pieces of energy or 2? My guess is 2 based on the ots solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 SOmething has to give tonight I would think...either the EURO needs to come more in line with GFS or vice versca....Maybe a Met can help..if HPC said disregard the 12z run, wouldnt you disregard 18z too since its running on 12z data? If so who cares about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Pretty much the worst possible solution for us. I thought the 12z was worse but maybe I'm wrong. They both suck track wise regardless so not that it matters much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 SOmething has to give tonight I would think...either the EURO needs to come more in line with GFS or vice versca....Maybe a Met can help..if HPC said disregard the 12z run, wouldnt you disregard 18z too since its running on 12z data? If so who cares about it HPC also said yesterday that in their opinion it wouldn't be resolved probably until within 48 hours of the event. I'm just the messenger on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 just need to shift 25 miles east and it could be interesting here. until 00z. Yeah - I think Davis, WV would do well with a small east shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 HPC also said yesterday that in their opinion it wouldn't be resolved probably until within 48 hours of the event. I'm just the messenger on this one. Sounds like a perfect spot for the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Wow if this run came true I'd love to be in a Cabin up in the Hudson Valley of NY, interior MA, or the Catskills with a pair of xc skis and snowshoes. The hudson Valley is a bit of a snow hole. You'd be better off in the high terrain on either side. Hope this ends up giving everybody a good shot. Good Luck!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Take a look @ h5 vorticity between 12z and 18z from 72-90 hrs. They both show the 3 pieces energy spread out from the gl to the mw down to the se coast. 18z slows down the middle piece of energy and leaves it behind the ns and ss vorts. NS vort is stronger this run and pulls the phase further north and now we have an absolute terrible 850 track. I know I sound like a broken record with this stuff but just run through the h5 vort panels. Very complicated. Slightest diffs in timing and strength = crazy swing is solution. I don't have access to h5 vort panels for the euro so I can't compare. Did the 12z run show 3 pieces of energy or 2? My guess is 2 based on the ots solution. wunderground has the h5 vort panels if you want to take a look. The 12z run did have the 3 pieces, it just runs the great lakes one a heck of a lot faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 If HPC threw out the 12z for a poor s/w initialization, should not the 18z also be thrown out since there hasn't been any new RAOB info ingested with the 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 If HPC threw out the 12z for a poor s/w initialization, should not the 18z also be thrown out since there hasn't been any new RAOB info ingested with the 18z? Saw the 18z ens mean posted in SE thread. Not even going to say what I think of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Saw the 18z ens mean posted in SE thread. Not even going to say what I think of it The individual members offer a range of solutions...lots of fun options..anything from thunderstorms with a low running up the apps, some plain rain, some snow/mix and a suppressed solution or two just for good measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Saw the 18z ens mean posted in SE thread. Not even going to say what I think of it Yeah, it's pretty flucking ugly, 1002 parked over Augusta GA, H5 actually matches up nicely with the 12z EC ens mean around 96-102, likely going inland, maybe even up the apps, comma head from WV up into interior NE, maybe some svr into the tidewater/Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Saw the 18z ens mean posted in SE thread. Not even going to say what I think of it You have to look at how its getting there, IMO. It is equally split (about) between solutions that are literally all over the place. Some worse than the op (further west/north), some that are great, some suppressed like the Euro. Not sure anyone could get comfortable with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 You have to look at how its getting there, IMO. It is equally split (about) between solutions that are literally all over the place. Some worse than the op (further west/north), some that are great, some suppressed like the Euro. Not sure anyone could get comfortable with them. true, the mean is a bad representation compared to looking at the individual members right now...you'd like to see a bit more agreement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 University Park has been screwed a few times in recent years, so good luck up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 If HPC threw out the 12z for a poor s/w initialization, should not the 18z also be thrown out since there hasn't been any new RAOB info ingested with the 18z? Well, I threw it out because I didn't like what I saw but I'll go with HPC's thoughts instead. The interesting thing here is that the euro and gfs will likely agree on "something" come thurs night / fri morn timeframe but the nam will probably get the final solution right. If the threat is still real on Friday night, the 0z nam could be a chicken dinner or a heartbreaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The 18Z Nam seems to be pretty close to what we need in terms of interactions and timing. So the lesson we learned is later is better than earlier- toss the OP GFS and most other guidance is not far off of each other. Its better to have us shut out with the precip just south at this stage of the game than wishing a Euro inland runner to come back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The 18Z Nam seems to be pretty close to what we need in terms of interactions and timing. So the lesson we learned is later is better than earlier- toss the OP GFS and most other guidance is not far off of each other. Its better to have us shut out with the precip just south at this stage of the game than wishing a Euro inland runner to come back south. I think the one statement that rings true here to me is that once the euro goes inland it usually doesn't go back....purely an observation from the past 8 years so move to the banter thread if this post offends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well, I'm almost scared to comment on the NAM around here But anyway, analyzing the model...looks like a slight trend toward the GFS, but not as amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well, I'm almost scared to comment on the NAM around here But anyway, analyzing the model...looks like a slight trend toward the GFS, but not as amped. southern system look pretty far south at 66hrs getting it up here will be a feat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Please protect me from the Weenie Smashers... "The NAM is sh!t past 48 hours. Not very good inside 48 either" "Euro is God" "Always rains in DC anyway" OK...now that's over with...NAM pretty much kills the northern s/w that was supposed to phase with the southern s/w. Negative tilt in east TX is not typically good, but if it doesn't phase, might just slide e-ward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Please protect me from the Weenie Smashers... "The NAM is sh!t past 48 hours. Not very good inside 48 either" "Euro is God" "Always rains in DC anyway" OK...now that's over with...NAM pretty much kills the northern s/w that was supposed to phase with the southern s/w. Negative tilt in east TX is not typically good, but if it doesn't phase, might just slide e-ward. yeah the northern stream is still out ahead so maybe it doesn't cut to far NW....the southern stream is quite pumped though....gulf coast severe wx.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Actually, it looks Euro like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hey, for this time frame, 84 hours isn't that bad. Disclaimer....the NAM is a terrible model after 48 hours and is not to be trusted. I am just analyzing the current run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If that was the final solution... I would take the 84 hr NAM from 00z and run wth it. We know its not, but we would all take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iammrben Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Frankly, I think it looks pretty good for us. In a nickle and, well, penny winter, this buys us a few inches with surface temps just cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F16%2F2012+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The northern edge of the precip is 100 ft south of Ji's house on the NAM. BTW... I like this storm, no matter what the GFS says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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