chris87 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Saw the 18z ens mean posted in SE thread. Not even going to say what I think of it The individual members offer a range of solutions...lots of fun options..anything from thunderstorms with a low running up the apps, some plain rain, some snow/mix and a suppressed solution or two just for good measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Saw the 18z ens mean posted in SE thread. Not even going to say what I think of it Yeah, it's pretty flucking ugly, 1002 parked over Augusta GA, H5 actually matches up nicely with the 12z EC ens mean around 96-102, likely going inland, maybe even up the apps, comma head from WV up into interior NE, maybe some svr into the tidewater/Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Saw the 18z ens mean posted in SE thread. Not even going to say what I think of it You have to look at how its getting there, IMO. It is equally split (about) between solutions that are literally all over the place. Some worse than the op (further west/north), some that are great, some suppressed like the Euro. Not sure anyone could get comfortable with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 You have to look at how its getting there, IMO. It is equally split (about) between solutions that are literally all over the place. Some worse than the op (further west/north), some that are great, some suppressed like the Euro. Not sure anyone could get comfortable with them. true, the mean is a bad representation compared to looking at the individual members right now...you'd like to see a bit more agreement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 University Park has been screwed a few times in recent years, so good luck up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 If HPC threw out the 12z for a poor s/w initialization, should not the 18z also be thrown out since there hasn't been any new RAOB info ingested with the 18z? Well, I threw it out because I didn't like what I saw but I'll go with HPC's thoughts instead. The interesting thing here is that the euro and gfs will likely agree on "something" come thurs night / fri morn timeframe but the nam will probably get the final solution right. If the threat is still real on Friday night, the 0z nam could be a chicken dinner or a heartbreaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The 18Z Nam seems to be pretty close to what we need in terms of interactions and timing. So the lesson we learned is later is better than earlier- toss the OP GFS and most other guidance is not far off of each other. Its better to have us shut out with the precip just south at this stage of the game than wishing a Euro inland runner to come back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The 18Z Nam seems to be pretty close to what we need in terms of interactions and timing. So the lesson we learned is later is better than earlier- toss the OP GFS and most other guidance is not far off of each other. Its better to have us shut out with the precip just south at this stage of the game than wishing a Euro inland runner to come back south. I think the one statement that rings true here to me is that once the euro goes inland it usually doesn't go back....purely an observation from the past 8 years so move to the banter thread if this post offends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well, I'm almost scared to comment on the NAM around here But anyway, analyzing the model...looks like a slight trend toward the GFS, but not as amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well, I'm almost scared to comment on the NAM around here But anyway, analyzing the model...looks like a slight trend toward the GFS, but not as amped. southern system look pretty far south at 66hrs getting it up here will be a feat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Please protect me from the Weenie Smashers... "The NAM is sh!t past 48 hours. Not very good inside 48 either" "Euro is God" "Always rains in DC anyway" OK...now that's over with...NAM pretty much kills the northern s/w that was supposed to phase with the southern s/w. Negative tilt in east TX is not typically good, but if it doesn't phase, might just slide e-ward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Please protect me from the Weenie Smashers... "The NAM is sh!t past 48 hours. Not very good inside 48 either" "Euro is God" "Always rains in DC anyway" OK...now that's over with...NAM pretty much kills the northern s/w that was supposed to phase with the southern s/w. Negative tilt in east TX is not typically good, but if it doesn't phase, might just slide e-ward. yeah the northern stream is still out ahead so maybe it doesn't cut to far NW....the southern stream is quite pumped though....gulf coast severe wx.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Actually, it looks Euro like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hey, for this time frame, 84 hours isn't that bad. Disclaimer....the NAM is a terrible model after 48 hours and is not to be trusted. I am just analyzing the current run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If that was the final solution... I would take the 84 hr NAM from 00z and run wth it. We know its not, but we would all take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iammrben Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Frankly, I think it looks pretty good for us. In a nickle and, well, penny winter, this buys us a few inches with surface temps just cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F16%2F2012+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The northern edge of the precip is 100 ft south of Ji's house on the NAM. BTW... I like this storm, no matter what the GFS says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Actually, it looks Euro like Euro didn't even give us a cloud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Temps are not the worst I've ever seen...at the height of the precip the 850 line runs through RIC. BL is a big concern as usual though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well, I'm almost scared to comment on the NAM around here But anyway, analyzing the model...looks like a slight trend toward the GFS, but not as amped. A hair better for you folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=L Oh. Yeah, that's pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 verbatim, the NAM up to 84 hrs and beyond (check 700mb RH maps which along with the radar pick) confirm Matt gets his 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Who said NAM bad? Gives us a few inches with the potentail for more if it slows down the NRN stream. Did you want to see snow making it up to Syaracuse NYlike the GFS? When it snows there, it doesn't here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The NAM is advertising something close to a best case scenario. Need another slight north jog to get some heavier precip in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Blazing at the surface. I hate the elongated double barrell low. I want a slower, more consolidated LP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hey, for this time frame, 84 hours isn't that bad. Disclaimer....the NAM is a terrible model after 48 hours and is not to be trusted. I am just analyzing the current run. I was just about to make the same observation/analysis! All caveats aside, that's not a half-bad look. The unusually elongated closed low at 850-mb looks sort of strange, and it's got the dual lows along the AL/GA border and off the NC coast. But there's lots of precip and a decent high to our north along with a north-northeast flow (sfc and 850-mb). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hey, for this time frame, 84 hours isn't that bad. Disclaimer....the NAM is a terrible model after 48 hours and is not to be trusted. I am just analyzing the current run. Fantasy to look at at this range. The heck with that. The trends are more north. This thing is all over the place but if the euro trends at all that way you'd have to think that's a move you could put some faith in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Blazing at the surface. I hate the elongated double barrell low. I want a slower, more consolidated LP. yeah, I'm waiting for soundings I know BWI is above freezing, but the freezing line is not far to the north at all no worse than what we had progged for Friday night and it turned to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 yeah, I'm waiting for soundings I know BWI is above freezing, but the freezing line is not far to the north at all no worse than what we had progged for Friday night and it turned to snow You're in better shape there compared to my southness. If we can consolidate into one low, I like the chances or some accumulations. I'm riding a total shut out down here as of now. Still, I guess if that vort approaches to my SW we could get an inch or two back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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