ravensrule Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 It may rain in Buffalo at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Novice here. How similar (if at all) is the setup January 26, 2011? I remember we had only marginally cold air but were able to overcome it quickly with an almost ideal lower pressure track and dynamics. It's a bit of an apples to oranges comparison. 1/26 had a really vigorous and energetic upper level closed h5 low that tracked just about perfectly to our south. The dynamics easily overcame quite warm temps out in front. The upcoming system is stream interaction with just some areas of vorticity at h5 embedded in a pretty fast flow. Nothing closed off or slow moving. I'll take a 1.26 setup over what's headed our way anyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 993 in eastern TN at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 lets see if it goes due east like like JMA due to the NS low. JMA was in the exact same place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 seriously...id rather see this than an OTS euro solution...it means there is a chance for a bigger storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 992mb low over SW VA...seriously the MAG site is horribly slow. My God, that far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Southern Low is a little north of 12z and wound up. It would be a rain solution for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Central PA gets demolished this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 GFS is raining on everyones parade! Very far west indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 It would be a rain solution for us. Close for me though. Could end up an I81 and west storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 980 south of long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I knew there was a reason why Buckeye was in our thread today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Little point in even trying to analyze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I knew there was a reason why Buckeye was in our thread today if the gfs wins it might be its biggest victory ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 There is little doubt that I am traveling for this storm if we get shut out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 How about we take a blend of the 0z EURO and the 18z GFS and call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Pretty much the worst possible solution for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Wow if this run came true I'd love to be in a Cabin up in the Hudson Valley of NY, interior MA, or the Catskills with a pair of xc skis and snowshoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 12z JMA wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I knew there was a reason why Buckeye was in our thread today hmmm let me think... 18z gfs vs. 12z euro snowblower stays tied under the tarp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Take a look @ h5 vorticity between 12z and 18z from 72-90 hrs. They both show the 3 pieces energy spread out from the gl to the mw down to the se coast. 18z slows down the middle piece of energy and leaves it behind the ns and ss vorts. NS vort is stronger this run and pulls the phase further north and now we have an absolute terrible 850 track. I know I sound like a broken record with this stuff but just run through the h5 vort panels. Very complicated. Slightest diffs in timing and strength = crazy swing is solution. I don't have access to h5 vort panels for the euro so I can't compare. Did the 12z run show 3 pieces of energy or 2? My guess is 2 based on the ots solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 SOmething has to give tonight I would think...either the EURO needs to come more in line with GFS or vice versca....Maybe a Met can help..if HPC said disregard the 12z run, wouldnt you disregard 18z too since its running on 12z data? If so who cares about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Pretty much the worst possible solution for us. I thought the 12z was worse but maybe I'm wrong. They both suck track wise regardless so not that it matters much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 SOmething has to give tonight I would think...either the EURO needs to come more in line with GFS or vice versca....Maybe a Met can help..if HPC said disregard the 12z run, wouldnt you disregard 18z too since its running on 12z data? If so who cares about it HPC also said yesterday that in their opinion it wouldn't be resolved probably until within 48 hours of the event. I'm just the messenger on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 just need to shift 25 miles east and it could be interesting here. until 00z. Yeah - I think Davis, WV would do well with a small east shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 HPC also said yesterday that in their opinion it wouldn't be resolved probably until within 48 hours of the event. I'm just the messenger on this one. Sounds like a perfect spot for the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Wow if this run came true I'd love to be in a Cabin up in the Hudson Valley of NY, interior MA, or the Catskills with a pair of xc skis and snowshoes. The hudson Valley is a bit of a snow hole. You'd be better off in the high terrain on either side. Hope this ends up giving everybody a good shot. Good Luck!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Take a look @ h5 vorticity between 12z and 18z from 72-90 hrs. They both show the 3 pieces energy spread out from the gl to the mw down to the se coast. 18z slows down the middle piece of energy and leaves it behind the ns and ss vorts. NS vort is stronger this run and pulls the phase further north and now we have an absolute terrible 850 track. I know I sound like a broken record with this stuff but just run through the h5 vort panels. Very complicated. Slightest diffs in timing and strength = crazy swing is solution. I don't have access to h5 vort panels for the euro so I can't compare. Did the 12z run show 3 pieces of energy or 2? My guess is 2 based on the ots solution. wunderground has the h5 vort panels if you want to take a look. The 12z run did have the 3 pieces, it just runs the great lakes one a heck of a lot faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 If HPC threw out the 12z for a poor s/w initialization, should not the 18z also be thrown out since there hasn't been any new RAOB info ingested with the 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 If HPC threw out the 12z for a poor s/w initialization, should not the 18z also be thrown out since there hasn't been any new RAOB info ingested with the 18z? Saw the 18z ens mean posted in SE thread. Not even going to say what I think of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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