yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 i'll go out on a limb and say looking at the nam out to 42...it ain't gonna be the euro. Its not going to be as amped as the GFS either... but its leaning toward it IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Its not going to be as amped as the GFS either... but its leaning toward it IMO at 42 you're prognosticating something ~100 hrs out? :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Its not going to be as amped as the GFS either... but its leaning toward it IMO i concur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 at 42 you're prognosticating something ~100 hrs out? :-/ Not exactly. I am only comparing h5 charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 .5"+ about east/west through dc, 1"+ to nc/va border. temps are not super torchy... 30s. the snow mean is pretty nice as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Well, since we've got nothing else to look at...going by H5..NAM is different than 12z. Not quite as amped as the 12z GFS though. No clue what that means beyond that and not even going to try and guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Here's my muddy take on this mess... with thoughts from Wes embedded. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/presidents-day-weekend-to-storm-or-not-to-storm-to-snow-or-not-to-snow/2012/02/15/gIQAd2G5FR_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Well, since we've got nothing else to look at...going by H5..NAM is different than 12z. Not quite as amped as the 12z GFS though. No clue what that means beyond that and not even going to try and guess. If you compare the 18z NAM at 57 on h5 and the 12z GFS h5 at 63... one would THINK that its going to better for us down here because of better blocking and confluence in NE Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 .5"+ about east/west through dc, 1"+ to nc/va border. temps are not super torchy... 30s. 30's across the MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Here's my muddy take on this mess... with thoughts from Wes embedded. http://www.washingto...2G5FR_blog.html i think your JMA picture is out of date..todays would indicate a yes i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 who pulled the plug, Dave? lol anyway, 18Z NAM looks good to me and this loop of 300mb suggests to me it's coming north http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F15%2F2012+18UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=300_wnd_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 who pulled the plug, Dave? lol anyway, 18Z NAM looks good to me and this loop of 300mb suggests to me it's coming north http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=L Yeah, we better hope it's more right than the GFS at that stage. But I mean..its the 84 hour NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 who pulled the plug, Dave? lol anyway, 18Z NAM looks good to me and this loop of 300mb suggests to me it's coming north http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=L it's not coming north...the northern stream is ahead of the southern wave...strong confluence over the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 NAM is OTS extrapolated i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 it's not coming north...the northern stream is ahead of the southern wave...strong confluence over the NE yes, but the confluence is lifting north, which is why I posted the loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 it's not coming north...the northern stream is ahead of the southern wave...strong confluence over the NE lol..it looks pretty bad but NAM at 84 hours is like Nogaps at 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yeah, we better hope it's more right than the GFS at that stage. But I mean..its the 84 hour NAM. Northern stream runs ahead of the southern stream at H5 and misses the phase. At around hour 48, it looked like the 2 streams would phase but the northern stream moved too fast and missed. The NAM would probably be similar to the GGEM/Euro. Maybe slightly north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The NAM at 84HR is wrong in its depiction so can we please stop worrying about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The NAM at 84HR is wrong in its depiction so can we please stop worrying about it? the last page or so is some sort of joke gone wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 i think your JMA picture is out of date..todays would indicate a yes i think The latest JMA run wasn't done when I published. Yes, it is from 0z not 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 the last page or so is some sort of joke gone wrong Though the interpretation of what the NAm is showing is right on I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 kinda funny the jma is similar to PDII....didn't that whiff folks north of philly? It clobbered the OV to the midatlantic. Of course there's no brutal arctic pressing high like there was for that one. no, it eventually made it north and even Boston received over a foot ot: Glad to see ya' posting in MA Buckeye Boston got only 28" in PD2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I was kind of liking it cause it showed a bit more confluence and blockiness I think chris has it right that the northern stream being ahead of the southern would be a problem and would force the low on the euro type track. The northern stream is the key. the gfs that pahses in has a much slower northern stream and it lets the srn stream get out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Zwts, these are just my hunches about the storm but I think they are valid at the very least. I would lean toward a more ene track and ots and not just because I think the euro is better than the gfs. It just more of a probability because it's much easier to get a partial phase and out the door rather than a perfect phase and getting amped up the coast (in this specific setup). Flow has been consistently modeled relatively flat going into the event. We really don't have much of a block or amplification in front of the development. Relying on a strong phase to amp everything up for a classic coastal track (while certainly possible) is less likely than having the system take an ene track off of the outer banks. Of course, I'm rooting for a more supressed track but that isn't making me biased at all. IMO- the only way we get snow is for the system to take a similar track as the euro but be stronger with a larger precip shield. A further n jog would of course help too (but not too far). I did like seeing the hp (and lack of lp) n of the lakes build down in oh as the system departs. I guess the point of this rambing post is as I see it, the only way we get accum snow is to have a stronger system with the same or slightly north track and a stronger hp n of the lakes. Euro shows the hp @ 1024 building to 1028. If the hp startes off at 1026-8ish and builds to 1030+ then I think we have the cold air we need at the surface to get some accum snow. You're pretty darn good (prob the best non-met in the forum) at identifying what needs to happen to get snow in a marginal and/or flawed setup. Is what I'm thinking reasonable or am I missing big here? Nice thoughts...I don't think we need a full phase to get in on this and not sure we want one...though I am with Ji and would prefer a wrapped up, moisture laden rain to snow solution versus a 0.10" QPF into a warm boundary layer.....we kind of want what the euro is showing now but with slightly more amplification...the track for us is pretty important...my "guess" is this at least fringes us with 0.25-0.5 QPF, but with this air mass that might not be very high impact if much snow at all..I want a super moist solution so I can at least drive to the Catoctins or HGR or wherever to see snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Nice thoughts...I don't think we need a full phase to get in on this and not sure we want one...though I am with Ji and would prefer a wrapped up, moisture laden rain to snow solution versus a 0.10" QPF into a warm boundary layer.....we kind of want what the euro is showing now but with slightly more amplification...the track for us is pretty important...my "guess" is this at least fringes us with 0.25-0.5 QPF, but with this air mass that might not be very high impact if much snow at all..I want a super moist solution so I can at least drive to the Catoctins or HGR or wherever to see snow I agree pretty much with Bob's thoughts and yours. It's a pretty fine line we need to walk to get accumulating snow, not impossible but....we also as always need some luck. I'll be watching the northern stream as it looks to be the key to how far north the southern stream system gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I agree pretty much with Bob's thoughts and yours. It's a pretty fine line we need to walk to get accumulating snow, not impossible but....we also as always need some luck. I'll be watching the northern stream as it looks to be the key to how far north the southern stream system gets. Novice here. How similar (if at all) is the setup January 26, 2011? I remember we had only marginally cold air but were able to overcome it quickly with an almost ideal lower pressure track and dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Novice here. How similar (if at all) is the setup January 26, 2011? I remember we had only marginally cold air but were able to overcome it quickly with an almost ideal lower pressure track and dynamics. Not really too similar. That front was vicious. I believe temps were extremely warm, like 50's ahead of the front and then right at freezing for the remainder. This isn't really a front situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Ok. And besides, the 18z GFS at 84 hours will seal our fate. Only until the 00Z runs come in. Even if it suppressed the low, I don't think that decides things. The UKmet is a pretty good model (the second best one) and it has a low far enough north to give us heavy precip. The euro is a good model and it has no low too far south for much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I think chris has it right that the northern stream being ahead of the southern would be a problem and would force the low on the euro type track. The northern stream is the key. the gfs that pahses in has a much slower northern stream and it lets the srn stream get out ahead of it. This is exactly what I was trying to figure out why the 12z GFS showed what it did. This explanation is great. Thanks, Wes(and Chris) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 i moved the 90 hr nam talk to the banter thread now lets watch the gfs crap on us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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