MillzPirate Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I mean I get it, hearing people wanting the verbatim temp outputs from model A or model B is kind of annoying, but I'm looking at the general trend of no true cold air source from most of the models. IAD and BWI might do ok, but lots of the Mid-Atlantic could be screwed even with a nice 50/50 and Canadian vortex. Point being that on your typical Feb 20th, those features would bring widespread 0c temps. This winter sucks. if the Euro were to be correct, we would have a mechanism for cooling the surface in the 1028 high over OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Well, should be interesting to see if the 12z EURO ensembles are close to what the 00z ones showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 LOL..not that it matters but the JMA doesnt make much sense...a low at the ALA/Tenn border then due east? yeah Okay. lol Seems plausible given it's depiction of the low over NS. Where else can it go?**** ***did I just discuss the JMA as a model to take seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 LOL..not that it matters but the JMA doesnt make much sense...a low at the ALA/Tenn border then due east? yeah Okay. lol yea..i was surprised. i thought it would be coming way north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Well, should be interesting to see if the 12z EURO ensembles are close to what the 00z ones showed banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 yea..i was surprised. i thought it would be coming way north not saying it's right, but the JMA solution is probably the ideal solution for us it gets us in enough precip to cool the atmosphere but stays far enough south of us not to pull up the warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 LOL..not that it matters but the JMA doesnt make much sense...a low at the ALA/Tenn border then due east? yeah Okay. lol confluence over NE with that big Canadian Maritime vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yea the JMA is phased solution almost like the GFS but with a strong vortex to shunt it east. You can tell by the iso bars on the surface map posted the low wants to go NE inland but is forced to redevelop off the coast and head east. -Nor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 You mean like showing a coastal MECS off the Delmarva then next run a flat OTS solution? False equivalence. But I don't bash the GFS. I am actually impressed and amazed with what models are capable of. The GFS is a fine model. The euro is the best global model. I don't think anyone disagrees, but it is also far from perfect. I don't think mets should get too concerned about what weenies say about the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 yea..i was surprised. i thought it would be coming way north I think anyone with objectivity would lean toward the euro being the best solution right now. But that doesn't mean it can't come further north and west. I think it will. May still be rain for us though but I have doubts we are completely missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 To me, the change in the strength of the storm from the 0z run to the 12z on the EURO is impressive. Much more wound up. I would like to think that such a change would somehow alter it's course and impact on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 the Euro is actually pretty close to going boom on somebody.... big time bombing within 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 12z euro ensembles def better than 00z ensemble mean. North, amped, and better digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 yea..i was surprised. i thought it would be coming way north kinda funny the jma is similar to PDII....didn't that whiff folks north of philly? It clobbered the OV to the midatlantic. Of course there's no brutal arctic pressing high like there was for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 kinda funny the jma is similar to PDII....didn't that whiff folks north of philly? It clobbered the OV to the midatlantic. Of course there's no brutal arctic pressing high like there was for that one. Nope, PDII was DC to Boston. It was 2/5-6/2010 that screwed folks north of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 kinda funny the jma is similar to PDII....didn't that whiff folks north of philly? It clobbered the OV to the midatlantic. Of course there's no brutal arctic pressing high like there was for that one. no, it eventually made it north and even Boston received over a foot ot: Glad to see ya' posting in MA Buckeye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Apparently Euro ensembles are much further north/amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 no, it eventually made it north and even Boston received over a foot ot: Glad to see ya' posting in MA Buckeye ok that's right... it was the one that made the last minute northern shift on the models. As far as posting here.... I'd be talking to myself in my forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 C'mon buddy! lol... but ya gotta admit we've become the old folk's home of the forum.... Anyways, I was hoping the jma could find a dysfunctional friend in the nogaps, but it's in the euro camp too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Euro Ensemble Mean is ~ 100 mi. north of the OP at 108-114... and 120 is NW by ~ 150. Mean takes the storm on a more SW to NE trajectory vs. the OP which shunts it East (while developing an eyewall on the western edge of the LP) ... this is a positive development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 lol... but ya gotta admit we've become the old folk's home of the forum.... Anyways, I was hoping the jma could find a dysfunctional friend in the nogaps, but it's in the euro camp too. No worries buckeye, its typical for the NOGAPS to be progressive and suppressed, its the most famous bias the model has, so in this case a good sign is the storm doesnt go to Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Apparently Euro ensembles are much further north/amped .5"+ about east/west through dc, 1"+ to nc/va border. temps are not super torchy... 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I think anyone with objectivity would lean toward the euro being the best solution right now. But that doesn't mean it can't come further north and west. I think it will. May still be rain for us though but I have doubts we are completely missed. Zwts, these are just my hunches about the storm but I think they are valid at the very least. I would lean toward a more ene track and ots and not just because I think the euro is better than the gfs. It just more of a probability because it's much easier to get a partial phase and out the door rather than a perfect phase and getting amped up the coast (in this specific setup). Flow has been consistently modeled relatively flat going into the event. We really don't have much of a block or amplification in front of the development. Relying on a strong phase to amp everything up for a classic coastal track (while certainly possible) is less likely than having the system take an ene track off of the outer banks. Of course, I'm rooting for a more supressed track but that isn't making me biased at all. IMO- the only way we get snow is for the system to take a similar track as the euro but be stronger with a larger precip shield. A further n jog would of course help too (but not too far). I did like seeing the hp (and lack of lp) n of the lakes build down in oh as the system departs. I guess the point of this rambing post is as I see it, the only way we get accum snow is to have a stronger system with the same or slightly north track and a stronger hp n of the lakes. Euro shows the hp @ 1024 building to 1028. If the hp startes off at 1026-8ish and builds to 1030+ then I think we have the cold air we need at the surface to get some accum snow. You're pretty darn good (prob the best non-met in the forum) at identifying what needs to happen to get snow in a marginal and/or flawed setup. Is what I'm thinking reasonable or am I missing big here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Based on Adam's post in the Philly sub-region, the Euro ensembles have several members that show a big EC hit and also a large group that are OTS. So the mean is quite respectable, but there's still 2 camps that are getting blurred on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 track's not really ALL that different. it's a bit north after the nc coast. the op did seem a bit dry on the northern edge given the slp location. goes more ne than due e after nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 track's not really ALL that different. it's a bit north after the nc coast. the op did seem a bit dry on the northern edge given the slp location. goes more ne than due e after nc. Do you have the individual members or just the mean? If there really are 2 camps in the Euro ensembles, I wonder if the Op is representative of the OTS camp or something in between the OTS and EC hit groups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 track's not really ALL that different. it's a bit north after the nc coast. the op did seem a bit dry on the northern edge given the slp location. goes more ne than due e after nc. sounds like the GEFS mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Do you have the individual members or just the mean? If there really are 2 camps in the Euro ensembles, I wonder if the Op is representative of the OTS camp or something in between the OTS and EC hit groups. just the mean.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 sounds like the GEFS mean The GEFS mean was a HUGE hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 i'll go out on a limb and say looking at the nam out to 42...it ain't gonna be the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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