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Weekend Storm Discussion 2/18-2/19


stormtracker

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I mean I get it, hearing people wanting the verbatim temp outputs from model A or model B is kind of annoying, but I'm looking at the general trend of no true cold air source from most of the models. IAD and BWI might do ok, but lots of the Mid-Atlantic could be screwed even with a nice 50/50 and Canadian vortex. Point being that on your typical Feb 20th, those features would bring widespread 0c temps. This winter sucks.

if the Euro were to be correct, we would have a mechanism for cooling the surface in the 1028 high over OH

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LOL..not that it matters but the JMA doesnt make much sense...a low at the ALA/Tenn border then due east? yeah Okay. lol

Seems plausible given it's depiction of the low over NS. Where else can it go?****

***did I just discuss the JMA as a model to take seriously?

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You mean like showing a coastal MECS off the Delmarva then next run a flat OTS solution? ;)

False equivalence. But I don't bash the GFS. I am actually impressed and amazed with what models are capable of. The GFS is a fine model. The euro is the best global model. I don't think anyone disagrees, but it is also far from perfect. I don't think mets should get too concerned about what weenies say about the models.

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yea..i was surprised. i thought it would be coming way north

I think anyone with objectivity would lean toward the euro being the best solution right now. But that doesn't mean it can't come further north and west. I think it will. May still be rain for us though but I have doubts we are completely missed.

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kinda funny the jma is similar to PDII....didn't that whiff folks north of philly? It clobbered the OV to the midatlantic. Of course there's no brutal arctic pressing high like there was for that one.

Nope, PDII was DC to Boston. It was 2/5-6/2010 that screwed folks north of Philly.

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kinda funny the jma is similar to PDII....didn't that whiff folks north of philly? It clobbered the OV to the midatlantic. Of course there's no brutal arctic pressing high like there was for that one.

no, it eventually made it north and even Boston received over a foot

ot: Glad to see ya' posting in MA Buckeye :)

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lol... but ya gotta admit we've become the old folk's home of the forum....

Anyways, I was hoping the jma could find a dysfunctional friend in the nogaps, but it's in the euro camp too.

No worries buckeye, its typical for the NOGAPS to be progressive and suppressed, its the most famous bias the model has, so in this case a good sign is the storm doesnt go to Bermuda.

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I think anyone with objectivity would lean toward the euro being the best solution right now. But that doesn't mean it can't come further north and west. I think it will. May still be rain for us though but I have doubts we are completely missed.

Zwts, these are just my hunches about the storm but I think they are valid at the very least. I would lean toward a more ene track and ots and not just because I think the euro is better than the gfs. It just more of a probability because it's much easier to get a partial phase and out the door rather than a perfect phase and getting amped up the coast (in this specific setup).

Flow has been consistently modeled relatively flat going into the event. We really don't have much of a block or amplification in front of the development. Relying on a strong phase to amp everything up for a classic coastal track (while certainly possible) is less likely than having the system take an ene track off of the outer banks.

Of course, I'm rooting for a more supressed track but that isn't making me biased at all. IMO- the only way we get snow is for the system to take a similar track as the euro but be stronger with a larger precip shield. A further n jog would of course help too (but not too far). I did like seeing the hp (and lack of lp) n of the lakes build down in oh as the system departs.

I guess the point of this rambing post is as I see it, the only way we get accum snow is to have a stronger system with the same or slightly north track and a stronger hp n of the lakes. Euro shows the hp @ 1024 building to 1028. If the hp startes off at 1026-8ish and builds to 1030+ then I think we have the cold air we need at the surface to get some accum snow.

You're pretty darn good (prob the best non-met in the forum) at identifying what needs to happen to get snow in a marginal and/or flawed setup. Is what I'm thinking reasonable or am I missing big here?

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track's not really ALL that different. it's a bit north after the nc coast. the op did seem a bit dry on the northern edge given the slp location. goes more ne than due e after nc.

Do you have the individual members or just the mean? If there really are 2 camps in the Euro ensembles, I wonder if the Op is representative of the OTS camp or something in between the OTS and EC hit groups.

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Do you have the individual members or just the mean? If there really are 2 camps in the Euro ensembles, I wonder if the Op is representative of the OTS camp or something in between the OTS and EC hit groups.

just the mean..

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