eurojosh Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Looking at Justin Berk's big storm tutorial - http://berkswintercast.tripod.com/id85.html - I have to say, this doesn't look like any of those... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 they don't always trend north.. this year it's probably just as likely it goes back south. If the winter time trends are the same as the warm season trends, there probably is a slight south bias, because models tend to underforecast the strength of the subtropical ridge. Stronger than modeled ridges would lead to a south bias in the storm track. I don't know if that is necessarily true for the cold season, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 If the winter time trends are the same as the warm season trends, there probably is a slight south bias, because models tend to underforecast the strength of the subtropical ridge. Stronger than modeled ridges would lead to a south bias in the storm track. I don't know if that is necessarily true for the cold season, though. i think the conventional wisdom that storms "trend' north is generally true but if it doesnt phase right etc it's just going to slide off to the south or even get ripped apart as we've seen numerous times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 cwg is onboard! Several computer models simulate a coastal storm and the potential for snow Sunday, but several others (not shown) do not. (Source of imagery: US Navy, StormVistaWxModels.com, UQAM Montreal Weather Center; AccuWeather via Tony Pann on Facebook) http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/are-we-done-with-winter-weather-or-does-weekend-snowstorm-loom-poll/2012/02/13/gIQAVuCWBR_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Alright, how did the JMA get on there? Ji? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 it's 6 days away. it might not even be there at 0z. Yeah I know. Just from watching the last three winters though, it seems like the good storms started out as missing to the south and sliding OTS, then trended north/west as we got closer. Like I never remember, say, a GLC modeled six days out that suddenly turned into a coastal. But maybe I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yeah I know. Just from watching the last three winters though, it seems like the good storms started out as missing to the south and sliding OTS, then trended north/west as we got closer. Like I never remember, say, a GLC modeled six days out that suddenly turned into a coastal. But maybe I'm wrong. We also had a -AO/-NAO combo last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 We also had a -AO/-NAO combo last year. Yes we did and the -nao on steroids was not our friend. The se and southern ma loved it though. This winter is actually better than last in alot of ways. Folks getting snow in every direction except over head is harder to deal with than having a widespread snow drought. Misery loves company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 cwg is onboard! Several computer models simulate a coastal storm and the potential for snow Sunday, but several others (not shown) do not. (Source of imagery: US Navy, StormVistaWxModels.com, UQAM Montreal Weather Center; AccuWeather via Tony Pann on Facebook) http://www.washingto...uCWBR_blog.html Anything that gets me an article is good even if it is a day 6 storm threat...always an iffy deal even in the best of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 At least we have something to track. Let's hope we get a MECS tease at least for a day so we can all feed our addiction a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Anything that gets me an article is good even if it is a day 6 storm threat...always an iffy deal even in the best of years. that JMA is from yesterday(Severe noresaster:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 that JMA is from yesterday(Severe noresaster:) did you put that image together? it's kinda funny how it picks the best looks from 24 hours of different runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 did you put that image together? it's kinda funny how it picks the best looks from 24 hours of different runs. no but it looks like my work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Definitely a confidence booster to see the EURO chime in with a storm. Especially good to see it south and not north and warm. Obviously. But hell we are not in the crosshairs right now. Makes me happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 At least we have something to track. Let's hope we get a MECS tease at least for a day so we can all feed our addiction a little. You're right. Maybe it's not the snow we miss; maybe it's the adrenaline rush. (not kidding) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 So much want snow... must resist urge to weenie.... The Big Storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 18z should at least look better... the powerful vort in the Midwest at 12z went away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 18z should at least look better... the powerful vort in the Midwest at 12z went away no southern vort all the other models had a southern vort, didn't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 18z should at least look better... the powerful vort in the Midwest at 12z went away It doesn't really ever develop the storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 It doesn't really ever develop the storm though. Yeah, which is another problem. At least the MW shortwave disappeared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 You're right. Maybe it's not the snow we miss; maybe it's the adrenaline rush. (not kidding) There is is alot of truth to this. There is a certain feeling one gets from the expectation and tracking of the system and watching it unfold verses the actual end result. (For some at least) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yeah, which is another problem. At least the MW shortwave disappeared We sneak in 0.1" of rain, so that's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Anyone notice that the huge vortex over the NE that was squashing this yesterday, that DT was griping about, is now completely gone? Gonna be hard to put faith in any solution. If it is showing a storm on Fri, then maybe we have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The differences on the GFS between 12Z and 18Z are comical. Just massively different upper air solution in the same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The differences on the GFS between 12Z and 18Z are comical. Just a massively different upper air solution in the same time period. 18Z more of a Miller B we don't want that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 There is is alot of truth to this. There is a certain feeling one gets from the expectation and tracking of the system and watching it unfold verses the actual end result. (For some at least) Maybe early. Tracking to track is less fun after investing tens or hundreds of hours for 2" of snow. If it's a gaurantee it's one thing... If it sucks that's another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The GFS doesn't do much. Sort of a "hold" run, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The differences on the GFS between 12Z and 18Z are comical. Just massively different upper air solution in the same time period. I wouldn't call it massively different or comical. The big difference between 12 & 18z is the handling of the vort in the mw around the 150ish range. There are just too many features imbedded in a fast flow to expect anything different at this range. The swings will continue and it should be fully expected by everyone here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 18z GEFS sure are interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 18z GEFS sure are interesting. Indeed. Looks like pretty good consensus, just based on the mean. But be careful, the Mid-Atlantic weenie-smashers will yell at you for talking about the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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