stormtracker Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Well, one this is for sure...it won't be some wrapped up rainer like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 changes still very subtle thru 96.. precip does come slightly north but very slightly. 1004 elongated over GA/SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Euro is locked in now... Who is going to fold? Gfs or euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 low center off sc coast at 102.. heading ene still. slightly stronger.. about 1000mb. .05"+ into DE/ e MD.. might get measurable up toward dc but dont know subn .05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Well, one this is for sure...it won't be some wrapped up rainer like the GFS. Once HPC chucked the 12z all that mattered was the euro. It does sound like it is still the consistent one today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 996 just off NC outer banks at 108.. a good bit west of 0z now, maybe 100 mi? not helping dc area much. far se va all .50+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Another .01 event? We need Gfs and euro to meet in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 low bombing and headed mainly east at 114... marginally different overall than 0z, but half a step right i suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 0.50" near ric at 114 northern extent of pecip to near ezf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 996 just off NC outer banks at 108.. a good bit west of 0z now, maybe 100 mi? not helping dc area much. far se va all .50+ How can a 996 at outer banks not give us precip ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 0.50" near ric at 114 northern extent of pecip to near ezf snow or rain for you folks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 verbatim probably not a ton of snow accum anywhere.. sfc is pretty mild. maybe nc feb 5-6 but rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 0.50" near ric at 114 northern extent of pecip to near ezf How are 850's and surface temps through RVA up to BWI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 How can a 996 at outer banks not give us precip ? Remember last years snow hole disaster when SE VA got hammered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 snow or rain for you folks? looks like mostly rain but maybe ending as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 1024hp n of the lakes @ 96 building to 1028 over OH. 850 winds are nw-ne. At the very least, that is encouraging. OTS or not, the features are there to give us snow and that was not the case with the gfs. I think this is a very good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 How can a 996 at outer banks not give us precip ? we should get some sprinkles at least you'd think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 DCA qpf is 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Euro is locked in now... Who is going to fold? Gfs or euro? we're so desperate over in the OV/lakes forum even we were holding out for something with this.... To answer your original question (which you've been around long enough to know), Euro wins..period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 1024hp n of the lakes @ 96 building to 1028 over OH. 850 winds are nw-ne. At the very least, that is encouraging. OTS or not, the features are there to give us snow and that was not the case with the gfs. I think this is a very good run. it could be worse.. tho we've seen a lot of runs that dont give us much or any snow at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 looks like mostly rain but maybe ending as snow Lack of snowpack in Canada and NE/MW US is making all the difference with marginal surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 How can a 996 at outer banks not give us precip ? http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest that's how Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 How are 850's and surface temps through RVA up to BWI? hr 96 0c from hot springs to se of dc precip into ric we are +1/+2 hr 102 0c ric to danville hr 108 0c from orf to raleigh----- ric is -1/-2 hr 114 ric -4 0c at hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 its 4.5 days.... I actually like where we sit with the Euro.... just a minor correction NW gets us.... 7 of the GFS ensemble members are 4"+ events, including a KU or maybe 2..... look on the brightside folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 hr 96 0c from hot springs to se of dc precip into ric we are +1/+2 hr 102 0c ric to danville hr 108 0c from orf to raleigh----- ric is -1/-2 hr 114 ric -4 0c at hatteras That's actually pretty good. Although I'm sure surface temps are crappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 its 4.5 days.... I actually like where we sit with the Euro.... just a minor correction NW gets us.... 7 of the GFS ensemble members are 4"+ events, including a KU or maybe 2..... look on the brightside folks i saw all the gfs members give us a coastal about 3 weeks ago...i think it was on a wednesday. All members had it and of course there was no storm. GFS members agreeing mean nothing really this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 JMA at 96 looks like the gfs right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 then it slides out to sea but i think more north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 If we keep talking about surface temps 4.5 days out based on the euro's known warmista depiction of them I may go out in the shed and just end it I mean I get it, hearing people wanting the verbatim temp outputs from model A or model B is kind of annoying, but I'm looking at the general trend of no true cold air source from most of the models. IAD and BWI might do ok, but lots of the Mid-Atlantic could be screwed even with a nice 50/50 and Canadian vortex. Point being that on your typical Feb 20th, those features would bring widespread 0c temps. This winter sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 LOL..not that it matters but the JMA doesnt make much sense...a low at the ALA/Tenn border then due east? yeah Okay. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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