Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 ***ALERT ALERT**** IGNORE ALL MODELS THAT DO NOT SHOW SNOW FOR RICHMOND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 It's hard to tell exact placement with the surface maps posted in the NYC thread but it appears to strengthen and move over the mouth of the Chesapeake. 96 ORF area... 120 its east of NS... so it should be moving ENE/NE from its 96 hr position to reach its 120 position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 108 BTW -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12108.gif 12z GEFS look nice... very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The GFS is a laughable POS of a model esp for east coast winter storms in the med-long range. Look at the projected track the last 4 runs. pathetic. Please stop posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 the UKMET is inland... actually IN SE VA... not off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Looks like the operational is a far NW outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Despite what DT says, didn't this GFS run have the Pacific dropsonde data included? Perhaps dtk or chris87 can comment on how much more robust the solution might be for that reason. It should at least mean the strength and relative positions of the shortwaves are well initialized. Is that data also sent for inclusion in the other globals? Those observations get sent out for all the operational centers to use through the usual channels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 12z GEFS look nice... very nice the posting of mean is probably the most useless activity you could do. btw..the UKMET looks like its inland/coastal hugger...not really off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 108 BTW -- http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12108.gif 12z GEFS look nice... very nice Obviously appears to be an impressive hit for this area. Any mets think this will be a decent banding event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 the UKMET is inland... actually IN SE VA... not off the coast Yes we know.. see above.. we may taint... but we should sneak out I-95 and West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 the posting of mean is probably the most useless activity you could do. btw..the UKMET looks like its inland/coastal hugger...not really off the coast The mean shows that the OP is probably too far NW with its solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 dtk can provide specific details...but i think the general theme is that it hopefully provides better sampling of the feature they targeted...does the additional sampling lead to a better forecast is the bigger question and one that is not easy to answer. i would imagine that the dropsonde data are shared with other forecast centers but I'm unsure of that. Well, according to HPC per Grothar, the GFS is still crap today: From HPC... THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE WORSE INITIALIZATION OF THE TROUGH'S PLACEMENT OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NUNAVUT THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN ALLOWING AN UPSTREAM PERTURBATION CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC TO CUT THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...WHICH THEN PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWS THE ENTIRE GFS SOLUTION. THE COMBINATION OF WORSE INITIALIZATION AND QUESTIONABLE AND EVEN SUSPICIOUS PHASING OF THE SEPARATE STREAMS IS SUFFICIENT TO DISCARD THE GFS PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AMONG THE REMAINING SOLUTIONS...THE NAM BECOMES SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN WHICH ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT. GIVEN THE NARROWER WINDOW FOR DATA ASSIMILATION IN THE NAM VERSUS THE OTHER REMAINING SOLUTIONS...ALONG WITH THE CLUSTERING OF THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS...THE PREFERENCE IS FOR THE ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 96 ORF area... 120 its east of NS... so it should be moving ENE/NE from its 96 hr position to reach its 120 position You are correct...I was looking at the laughable French website where it is tilted sideways. The UK website surface pressure map (w/o precip) seemed to indicate that the low was slightly NW of ORF at 994 mb...that's really all I was trying to point out I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 You are correct...I was looking at the laughable French website where it is tilted sideways. The UK website surface pressure map (w/o precip) seemed to indicate that the low was slightly NW of ORF at 994 mb...that's really all I was trying to point out I guess. I understand.... we might go snow-rain-snow in that solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Well, according to HPC per Grothar, the GFS is still crap today: But it's also clear they hadn't viewed the UK. Later on they reference the UK as support in tossing the 12z NAM/GFS but it's the 0z. They'll change their tune like they always do if the 12z EURO comes north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Wow...individual members of the GEFS look VERY nice for the most part. Only 2 are surpressed/OTS. Every other member gives us precip with 850s <0C. A couple are probably MECS range storms. Helpfully, most do not show that Great Lakes low, although a few do. Not sure if we should disregard these for the same reasons that HPC is ignoring the Op. Maybe we can keep these and throw out the Op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Wow...individual members of the GEFS look VERY nice for the most part. Only 2 are surpressed/OTS. Every other member gives us precip with 850s <0C. A couple are probably MECS range storms. Helpfully, most do not show that Great Lakes low, although a few do. Not sure if we should disregard these for the same reasons that HPC is ignoring the Op. Maybe we can keep these and throw out the Op? looks like a mixed bag of members that show some mostly snow, mix, mostly rain, and suppressed...what a mess..haha EDIT: a great example of when an ensemble mean is meaningless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Wow...individual members of the GEFS look VERY nice for the most part. Only 2 are surpressed/OTS. Every other member gives us precip with 850s <0C. A couple are probably MECS range storms. Helpfully, most do not show that Great Lakes low, although a few do. Not sure if we should disregard these for the same reasons that HPC is ignoring the Op. Maybe we can keep these and throw out the Op? Paint me crazy but the mean appeared to be right in the middle of the road between the north and south outliers. Doesn't seem to be a bad ensemble run to ride until we reach a consensus between the two outliers. Also encouraging because it snows here. A definite benefit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Wow...individual members of the GEFS look VERY nice for the most part. Only 2 are surpressed/OTS. Every other member gives us precip with 850s <0C. A couple are probably MECS range storms. Helpfully, most do not show that Great Lakes low, although a few do. Not sure if we should disregard these for the same reasons that HPC is ignoring the Op. Maybe we can keep these and throw out the Op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Wow...individual members of the GEFS look VERY nice for the most part. Only 2 are surpressed/OTS. Every other member gives us precip with 850s <0C. A couple are probably MECS range storms. Helpfully, most do not show that Great Lakes low, although a few do. Not sure if we should disregard these for the same reasons that HPC is ignoring the Op. Maybe we can keep these and throw out the Op? Definitely seems to be an encouraging sign. Though, I won't hold my breath yet with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 looks like a mixed bag of members that show some mostly snow, mix, mostly rain, and suppressed...what a mess..haha EDIT: a great example of when an ensemble mean is meaningless. Although I wouldn't be surprised if some of these ensemble members had some rain mixing in, particularly S/E of I-95, I don't really see any obvious signs that any are predominately rain. Do you have the 2m temps for the individual members? Just basing off the 850 temps, I'd say the ones that show us with precip are either all snow or predominately snow for most of the LWX forecast area. Storm total precip for the members...they are juicy: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPCN72NE_12z/f120.html 7 members give us 1"+ of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Until the euro swings wildly it has to be the favored model. And it fits in with Wes's thoughts as well You mean like showing a coastal MECS off the Delmarva then next run a flat OTS solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Big northern stream height falls over the Intl border at 60...if it's gonna pull it up the coast, it's gonna do it differently than the GFS. Lots of confluence over the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Although I wouldn't be surprised if some of these ensemble members had some rain mixing in, particularly S/E of I-95, I don't really see any obvious signs that any are predominately rain. Do you have the 2m temps for the individual members? Just basing off the 850 temps, I'd say the ones that show us with precip are either all snow or predominately snow for most of the LWX forecast area. Storm total precip for the members...they are juicy: http://www.meteo.psu...E_12z/f120.html 7 members give us 1"+ of QPF. No I haven't seen any surface temperatures...I was just basing it off the zero 850 line being very close to I-95...they sure are wet though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 one thing for sure through hr 60 it looks nothing like the gfs at 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 less steram interaction at 66 compared to 0z.. flow is a little flatter too. maybe too early still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 by 72 it looks more like 0z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 78.. still pretty similar. low off LA coast. possible the vortex to the north is trying to lift a bit or is weaker than last run,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 84.. nearly identical on low placement over se tip of LA. same at 90, 1004 mb over al, near al/fl/ga border.. precip maybe a hair north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 hr 90 1004 low near southern ala. trough is smidge less neg tilted than 0z but overall pretty close to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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