WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Full phase on this run, 990mb near OC at 96hrs. Wow at 102..the SNE and NYC area weenies are going to be reaching for the kleenex (not for tears) after this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Full phase on this run, 990mb near OC at 96hrs. Wow at 102..the SNE and NYC area weenies are going to be reaching for the kleenex (not for tears) after this run... NYC looks awfully warm at the surface... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 verbatim, a rain storm for all of I95, up and down the coast (turn to snow north of NY probably, but still mainly rain it seems) need to get to mtns for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 last 6 runs 1pm sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Wow- run through the h5 panels on ncep. Three pieces of energy in a line. Given that, the phased solution and rain makes sense. This is super complicated. The middle piece of energy washes out as you roll forward but it stays super complicated with other small features. There is no way the GFS has nailed it. There is no way any model can nail this. Move any one of these pieces just 75-100 miles and you can get a large change down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Looks like CTblizz drew the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 ALRET Ingore the 12x GSF runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 NYC looks awfully warm at the surface... Yeah, the city would be dicey, but the immediate N/W burbs would probably cash in. If we can kill that Great Lakes low faster and/or get it weaker, that would help everyone's cause. Kill that low a bit and shift the track east 50-100 miles and we'd all be faping and singing the GFS' praises right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The GFS is a laughable POS of a model esp for east coast winter storms in the med-long range. Look at the projected track the last 4 runs. pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Everybody calm down: Wxrisk.com *** ALERT **8 ALERT ** IGNORE THE 12Z GFS RUN ... AGAIN ** its way inland and has rain into NYC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yeah, the city would be dicey, but the immediate N/W burbs would probably cash in. If we can kill that Great Lakes low faster and/or get it weaker, that would help everyone's cause. Kill that low a bit and shift the track east 50-100 miles and we'd all be faping and singing the GFS' praises right now. If we could get the phase like 6-8 hrs later... all of us on the East Coast would sing hallejuah I believe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Looks like CTblizz drew the map a flawed event for him, though he would definitely do better than us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I don't know the answer to this - how many times do we get a storm coming up the coast when the following ridge axis is already crossing the Mississippi River? Ridge axis now in the plains, ND to TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yeah, the city would be dicey, but the immediate N/W burbs would probably cash in. If we can kill that Great Lakes low faster and/or get it weaker, that would help everyone's cause. Kill that low a bit and shift the track east 50-100 miles and we'd all be faping and singing the GFS' praises right now. but that GL low has killed for 2 years now (recall how it always showed up last year as we got closer to the event?) that GL low is like satan at a baptism, always showing up late just when you think he'll finally let this soul have some peace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 This is JUST TO COMPARE TO THE 12z GFS run... NOTHING MORE 12z GGEM at 84 has a 556 closed h5 low back in extreme SW TX near the Mexico border. SLP is just forming in W GOM 96 -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 UKIE has a 995 low off NC at hour 96. This is JUST TO COMPARE TO THE 12z GFS run... NOTHING MORE 12z GGEM at 84 has a 556 closed h5 low back in extreme SW TX near the Mexico border. SLP is just forming in W GOM 96 -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Wow- run through the h5 panels on ncep. Three pieces of energy in a line. Given that, the phased solution and rain makes sense. This is super complicated. The middle piece of energy washes out as you roll forward but it stays super complicated with other small features. There is no way the GFS has nailed it. There is no way any model can nail this. Move any one of these pieces just 75-100 miles and you can get a large change down the line. current noaa forecast is 51 on friday and 52 on saturday, so i would say temps are marginal to say the least. i think we underestimate sometimes what kind of airmass we need around here to get snow. even in our coldest storms we can have sleet mixed in. this area is tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I think the GFS is just going crazy. The other globals have been pretty consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Until the euro swings wildly it has to be the favored model. And it fits in with Wes's thoughts as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I like the run..id rather get a heavy wind blown rainstorm with potential than flurries and .01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Until the euro swings wildly it has to be the favored model. And it fits in with Wes's thoughts as well This is my position as well. Right now, the only one that matters is the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 This is JUST TO COMPARE TO THE 12z GFS run... NOTHING MORE 12z GGEM at 84 has a 556 closed h5 low back in extreme SW TX near the Mexico border. SLP is just forming in W GOM GGEM is now suppressed... no precip into VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Despite what DT says, didn't this GFS run have the Pacific dropsonde data included? Perhaps dtk or chris87 can comment on how much more robust the solution might be for that reason. It should at least mean the strength and relative positions of the shortwaves are well initialized. Is that data also sent for inclusion in the other globals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 This is my position as well. Right now, the only one that matters is the Euro. sad that in a country as rich and powerful as ours, we have to rely on a foreign model for accurate forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 sad that in a country as rich and powerful as ours, we have to rely on a foreign model for accurate forecasting UKIE it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I like the run..id rather get a heavy wind blown rainstorm with potential than flurries and .01 I couldn't agree with you more... anyway... if that Low Blows up like it is showing on the GFS... look for winds howling out of the Northeast... drawing cold air in. There is not a lot of cold air around..but I see a lot of potential for favorable dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 UKIE is 994 somwhere between HSE/ORF at 96... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Despite what DT says, didn't this GFS run have the Pacific dropsonde data included? Perhaps dtk or chris87 can comment on how much more robust the solution might be for that reason. It should at least mean the strength and relative positions of the shortwaves are well initialized. Is that data also sent for inclusion in the other globals? dtk can provide specific details...but i think the general theme is that it hopefully provides better sampling of the feature they targeted...does the additional sampling lead to a better forecast is the bigger question and one that is not easy to answer. i would imagine that the dropsonde data are shared with other forecast centers but I'm unsure of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 UKIE is 994 somwhere between HSE/ORF at 96... It's hard to tell exact placement with the surface maps posted in the NYC thread but it appears to strengthen and move over the mouth of the Chesapeake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I'm not sure if you can call the GFS consistent yet with this north idea. Something like 2 out of the last 4 runs have showed this scenario. Anyways, we have some foreigners showing the suppression to the south and the GFS with this north scenario. Split it down the middle at this range due to the lack of consensus on the situation and just raise pops and mention chance of a weekend storm, but unsure of precip. Pretty much the safe thing to do. Tomorrows runs will be big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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