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Weekend Storm Discussion 2/18-2/19


stormtracker

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Wow- run through the h5 panels on ncep. Three pieces of energy in a line. Given that, the phased solution and rain makes sense.

This is super complicated. The middle piece of energy washes out as you roll forward but it stays super complicated with other small features.

There is no way the GFS has nailed it. There is no way any model can nail this. Move any one of these pieces just 75-100 miles and you can get a large change down the line.

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NYC looks awfully warm at the surface...

Yeah, the city would be dicey, but the immediate N/W burbs would probably cash in. If we can kill that Great Lakes low faster and/or get it weaker, that would help everyone's cause. Kill that low a bit and shift the track east 50-100 miles and we'd all be faping and singing the GFS' praises right now.

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Yeah, the city would be dicey, but the immediate N/W burbs would probably cash in. If we can kill that Great Lakes low faster and/or get it weaker, that would help everyone's cause. Kill that low a bit and shift the track east 50-100 miles and we'd all be faping and singing the GFS' praises right now.

If we could get the phase like 6-8 hrs later... all of us on the East Coast would sing hallejuah I believe...

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Yeah, the city would be dicey, but the immediate N/W burbs would probably cash in. If we can kill that Great Lakes low faster and/or get it weaker, that would help everyone's cause. Kill that low a bit and shift the track east 50-100 miles and we'd all be faping and singing the GFS' praises right now.

but that GL low has killed for 2 years now (recall how it always showed up last year as we got closer to the event?)

that GL low is like satan at a baptism, always showing up late just when you think he'll finally let this soul have some peace

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Wow- run through the h5 panels on ncep. Three pieces of energy in a line. Given that, the phased solution and rain makes sense.

This is super complicated. The middle piece of energy washes out as you roll forward but it stays super complicated with other small features.

There is no way the GFS has nailed it. There is no way any model can nail this. Move any one of these pieces just 75-100 miles and you can get a large change down the line.

current noaa forecast is 51 on friday and 52 on saturday, so i would say temps are marginal to say the least. i think we underestimate sometimes what kind of airmass we need around here to get snow. even in our coldest storms we can have sleet mixed in. this area is tough.

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Despite what DT says, didn't this GFS run have the Pacific dropsonde data included? Perhaps dtk or chris87 can comment on how much more robust the solution might be for that reason. It should at least mean the strength and relative positions of the shortwaves are well initialized. Is that data also sent for inclusion in the other globals?

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I like the run..id rather get a heavy wind blown rainstorm with potential than flurries and .01

I couldn't agree with you more... anyway... if that Low Blows up like it is showing on the GFS... look for winds howling out of the Northeast... drawing cold air in. There is not a lot of cold air around..but I see a lot of potential for favorable dynamics.

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Despite what DT says, didn't this GFS run have the Pacific dropsonde data included? Perhaps dtk or chris87 can comment on how much more robust the solution might be for that reason. It should at least mean the strength and relative positions of the shortwaves are well initialized. Is that data also sent for inclusion in the other globals?

dtk can provide specific details...but i think the general theme is that it hopefully provides better sampling of the feature they targeted...does the additional sampling lead to a better forecast is the bigger question and one that is not easy to answer.

i would imagine that the dropsonde data are shared with other forecast centers but I'm unsure of that.

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I'm not sure if you can call the GFS consistent yet with this north idea. Something like 2 out of the last 4 runs have showed this scenario.

Anyways, we have some foreigners showing the suppression to the south and the GFS with this north scenario. Split it down the middle at this range due to the lack of consensus on the situation and just raise pops and mention chance of a weekend storm, but unsure of precip. Pretty much the safe thing to do. Tomorrows runs will be big.

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