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Weekend Storm Discussion 2/18-2/19


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It's probably just my weenie eyes kidding me, but the NAM looks pretty good to me through 78 84. Correct me if I'm wrong, but (in theory) wouldn't this be a good look for us at that stage of the game?

We are incurring the wrath of Ellinwood ;)

But 12z NAM at 84 has a 1024-1026 H in N WI/UP of Michigan and a VERY JUICY 1004 L in SW LA

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It's probably just my weenie eyes kidding me, but the NAM looks pretty good to me through 78 84. Correct me if I'm wrong, but (in theory) wouldn't this be a good look for us at that stage of the game?

I think so.. look the pockets of sub 0 degree in texas on the 84 hour map...no way it is snowing... but I think that is depicting some good dynamic lifting... I hate to use the word... but Amped comes to mind

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16 WSR dropsondes into the 12Z GFS...they were targeting the energy that will be part of the northern stream contribution to this system. I think we'll task them again tonight at 00Z and tomorrow at 12Z...after that all the players will be over the CONUS.

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For the Mid-Atlantic, snow to rain and back to snow at the end seems

to be a possibility. None of the models have a 500 mb chart that Wes

always posts...the magic chart that has signaled classic good snows in the DC area.

In this blah winter, snow to rain and back to snow will feed the savage snow-weenie beast.

Yes. It is likely to be a flawed, mixy, or near non-solution like 80+% of dc snow events. The profile for the big DC events covers the upper percentile of events and includes all of our KU storms. I'm not sure what the profile looks like for <4" storms at DCA which are probably 85% of our snow events. There are a number of good, memorable events that were <4" at DCA. DC, especially this winter, is not a good either/or place when approaching snow events. Looking for an all snow solution that produces an upper percentile event at DCA is a pretty unrewarding way to approach winter in DC in my experience.

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16 WSR dropsondes into the 12Z GFS...they were targeting the energy that will be part of the northern stream contribution to this system. I think we'll task them again tonight at 00Z and tomorrow at 12Z...after that all the players will be over the CONUS.

Thanks for the heads-up. It will still be hard to take the model output seriously but at least it will be getting some better initial conditions to work with. Can't wait to see what tomorrow's solutions look like.

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16 WSR dropsondes into the 12Z GFS...they were targeting the energy that will be part of the northern stream contribution to this system. I think we'll task them again tonight at 00Z and tomorrow at 12Z...after that all the players will be over the CONUS.

Thats good to know, thanks for the info

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We are incurring the wrath of Ellinwood ;)

But 12z NAM at 84 has a 1024-1026 H in N WI/UP of Michigan and a VERY JUICY 1004 L in SW LA

It does, but why would we assume that is coming up our way? That same look on other model runs doesn't necessarily equate to a snowy solution for the MA, but rather the next panels on models that go that far have been quite happy to show it sliding to the south and OTS.

Is there any reason to look at the NAM map and project it coming into our area?

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Yes. It is likely to be a flawed, mixy, or near non-solution like 80+% of dc snow events. The profile for the big DC events covers the upper percentile of events and includes all of our KU storms. I'm not sure what the profile looks like for <4" storms at DCA which are probably 85% of our snow events. There are a number of good, memorable events that were <4" at DCA. DC, especially this winter, is not a good either/or place when approaching snow events. Looking for an all snow solution that produces an upper percentile event at DCA is a pretty unrewarding way to approach winter in DC in my experience.

But to get to average, I bet you need at least one such event during the season. I'd be interested in how many years we exceed our seasonal average and get no 4 inch events. I bet is is pretty low.

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Nam slows things down, keeps the southern s/w closed and opens it up as some northern NRG begins to drop into it which gives the colder air a head start for our area.

Nice HP over Greenland; 50/50 Low in place which develops HP over MI.

Looks like the kicker coming ashore begins to wash out as well.

-Nor

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Yes. It is likely to be a flawed, mixy, or near non-solution like 80+% of dc snow events. The profile for the big DC events covers the upper percentile of events and includes all of our KU storms. I'm not sure what the profile looks like for <4" storms at DCA which are probably 85% of our snow events. There are a number of good, memorable events that were <4" at DCA. DC, especially this winter, is not a good either/or place when approaching snow events. Looking for an all snow solution that produces an upper percentile event at DCA is a pretty unrewarding way to approach winter in DC in my experience.

This is a pretty good way of looking at it. People seem to forget, even in the most ideal situation, we mix or rain or there is some flaw. We aren't Augusta, Maine. With this winter and this setup, if we could get 2 to 4 or even 3 to 6, it's a legit win.

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Thanks for the heads-up. It will still be hard to take the model output seriously but at least it will be getting some better initial conditions to work with. Can't wait to see what tomorrow's solutions look like.

Not guaranteed to be the case.

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But to get to average, I bet you need at least one such event during the season. I'd be interested in how many years we exceed our seasonal average and get no 4 inch events. I bet is is pretty low.

We've only exceeded our average 3 times in the last 23 winters so I think median is a better gauge? 89-90, 93-94, 04-05 are 3 examples of reaching or exceeding our median without a 4" event though I am not positive about 93-94? So it is rare. I'm with you on this event. I think the chances of getting 4" at DCA is pretty low. Especially 6"+. So I am shooting lower. And hoping we can slop our way into a 2-4" flawed event.

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Found this in the SE thread... was good read

SOme things to note from the NAM.

1. The NAM is closest to the Canadian through 72-84 hours when compared with the GFS/ECMWF.

2. It is slower and more amplified with the southern stream system. At 84 hours it has a 1003mb low over SW Louisiana. The 6z GFS at 90 hours had it over south-central GEorgia, the 00z ECMWF at 96 hours had it near Mobile Bay, the 00z GGEM at 96 hours had it slightly further east than the NAM just south of the LA central coast. From the 6z GFS ENsemble members, it looked most like members p002, p005, p008, and p 010. http://raleighwx.ame...rs/06zf090.html

3. Also the NAM is much quicker with the northern stream cold front when compared with the GFS and ECMWF at the same time. The front is passing through central Virginia at 00z Sunday and pushing southeast. The area of low pressure will likely ride this front so to speak.

If you extract out the 6z GFS Ensemble members and look at the Canadian, one would expect the 12z NAM would likely end up threatening at least, KY/TN/VA/northern NC with snow.

It will be interesting to see if the 12z models trend slower/stronger with the southern stream system, and quicker with the cold front moving into the NOrtheast this saturday.

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if we're going to rely on wishful thinking instead of sensible model discussions, why not "hope for" the depiction of the NAM at 84 for the first February 2010 storm? it's just as meaningful.

maybe extrapolating the 84 hour NAM posts could be kept to the banter thread?

I thought my question was pretty sensible. While no one thinks we should take the NAM verbatim, it's not exactly "wishful thinking" to discuss the pieces of the puzzle.

Perhaps you could explain to me why a discussion of those upper air features is any LESS meaningful than a serious discussion about the GFS portrayals...which have been so wildly inconsistent over the past 24 hours as to be comical.

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I thought my question was pretty sensible. While no one thinks we should take the NAM verbatim, it's not exactly "wishful thinking" to discuss the pieces of the puzzle.

Perhaps you could explain to me why a discussion of those upper air features is any LESS meaningful than a serious discussion about the GFS portrayals...which have been so wildly inconsistent over the past 24 hours as to be comical.

Here is what you posted:

It's probably just my weenie eyes kidding me, but the NAM looks pretty good to me through 78 84. Correct me if I'm wrong, but (in theory) wouldn't this be a good look for us at that stage of the game?

I know that you mean well but if you have to add the weenie eye stipulation just ask a question rather than saying it looks good. If you have a question - ask it. Don't inject your analysis and then ask a question. Just ask. Most mets on here will be more than happy to answer. It just clutters the threads less if you don't put weenie analysis into it.

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