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Weekend Storm Discussion 2/18-2/19


stormtracker

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Honestly... either the ECMWF or GFS solution is plausible at this time. The shortwave features being handled right now are simply too small to be resolved properly, especially at this time range. One plus is that all of the features are inland now, but the northernmost shortwave will be stretched so much in the next 24 hours that even slight variations in height and vorticity will have large ramifications down the road.

The bottom line... we probably will have one or two major shortwave interactions over the next 5 days between the three features I outlined on the previous page. However, as always, timing is everything. The biggest thing is timing these features and thats pretty much impossible at this time range with features of this size scale. For those hoping for a solution that phases earlier... you want the southern stream to speed up, while the northern stream features need to slow down... of course for a later phase you want the opposite, although if the two features completely miss each other, there might not be much of a system to follow.

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All year these southern s/w lag and I hope this upcoming one doesn't or it's a wide right.

I"m hoping the euro "bias" is in play here.....I'm not really that concerned about that sweet phase the GFS is showing given my latitude...If Euro is a bit quicker with ejecting that baja low, the storm will take a better track for me....I don't really care if New England gets a bomb

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I"m hoping the euro "bias" is in play here.....I'm not really that concerned about that sweet phase the GFS is showing given my latitude...If Euro is a bit quicker with ejecting that baja low, the storm will take a better track for me....I don't really care if New England gets a bomb

The next wave on the ECMWF seems pretty progressive too which prevents any meaningful chance they phase. I feel like I am staring at a 500 chart from not too long ago (January?) where this sort of thing happened. It was a "what could have been" scenario where 3 distinct s/w missed each other. Do you remember when?

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You know, at second thought, the ECMWF is not really lagging the southern stream. The issues are entirely in the northern stream. The GGEM is more lagged than the ECMWF tonight!

Bingo... I think the northern stream features are what we are going to have to watch over the next few days, especially the northernmost feature since it pretty much has to stretch across the ridge before digging back into western Canada. With so much vorticity elongation, its going to be very difficult for the models to resolve a wave with only tiny spatial details as it scales the ridge.

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Bingo... I think the northern stream features are what we are going to have to watch over the next few days, especially the northernmost feature since it pretty much has to stretch across the ridge before digging back into western Canada. With so much vorticity elongation, its going to be very difficult for the models to resolve a wave with only tiny spacial details as it scales the ridge.

Yeah I mentioned that wave too a while back about possibly being a wild card. As Adam said in another thread, this is not going to be pretty for people responsible for forecasts in the Mid Atlantic / New England.

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Yeah I mentioned that wave too a while back about possibly being a wild card. As Adam said in another thread, this is not going to be pretty for people responsible for forecasts in the Mid Atlantic / New England.

Yep... its going to be a nightmare, especially when you have an extreme solution on the table as well. Some of the GFS ensembles are off the wall insane in both directions.

We could end up with a solution like this:

00zensp001p06114.gif

Vise versa... we might also end up with this:

00zensp010p06114.gif

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I didn't read all the overnite posts, so hope this isn't a repeat:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

220 AM EST WED FEB 15 2012

VALID 12Z SUN FEB 19 2012 - 12Z WED FEB 22 2012

USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 12Z/14 ECMWF AND ECENS MEAN FOR THE

PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THIS

MANUAL BLEND FITS MULTI-DAY MEANS FROM THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS

BEST...PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO THE SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC WAVE

LIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DAY 4. THE 00Z/15 GFS IS THE

FARTHEST NORTH OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING A

SIGNIFICANT DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH A WAVE IN THE NORTHERN

STREAM. THE UKMET TAKES UP THE FLAT END OF THE GUIDANCE. OVER

THE WEST...THE PACIFIC JET SEEMS DESTINED TO KEEP SPLITTING UPON

REACHING THE CONTINENT...THOUGH THE SYSTEM COMING INTO THE

NORTHWEST DAY 7 MAY HAVE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT TO STAY MOSTLY

INTACT...WITH HIGH SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN

REGION.

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The next wave on the ECMWF seems pretty progressive too which prevents any meaningful chance they phase. I feel like I am staring at a 500 chart from not too long ago (January?) where this sort of thing happened. It was a "what could have been" scenario where 3 distinct s/w missed each other. Do you remember when?

I think a phase is not very likely and posted something like that yesterday as there are just too many players which makes it hard to get things right, not impossible but not very likely. The Euro ensemble mean has backed off to a more southern solution. TThe 06Z GFS still has something but is flatter than the 00Z but still looks like it might be mostly rain.

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It's probably just my weenie eyes kidding me, but the NAM looks pretty good to me through 78 84. Correct me if I'm wrong, but (in theory) wouldn't this be a good look for us at that stage of the game?

I was thinking the same thing, but then again its just the 84 hr NAM...something to look at is all it is.
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