Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 it's a miss to the south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 North/Northwest extent of the precip is a line from Rehoboth Beach to RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 nice post Phil...may want to repost tomorrow...it will get lost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 North/Northwest extent of the precip is a line from Rehoboth Beach to RIC safe place to be now after the gfs inland torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Honestly... either the ECMWF or GFS solution is plausible at this time. The shortwave features being handled right now are simply too small to be resolved properly, especially at this time range. One plus is that all of the features are inland now, but the northernmost shortwave will be stretched so much in the next 24 hours that even slight variations in height and vorticity will have large ramifications down the road. The bottom line... we probably will have one or two major shortwave interactions over the next 5 days between the three features I outlined on the previous page. However, as always, timing is everything. The biggest thing is timing these features and thats pretty much impossible at this time range with features of this size scale. For those hoping for a solution that phases earlier... you want the southern stream to speed up, while the northern stream features need to slow down... of course for a later phase you want the opposite, although if the two features completely miss each other, there might not be much of a system to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Worth staying up for. Euro is holding the se solution and gfs is still figuring it out. Something inbetween isn't unlikely at all. Threat still firmly on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 All year these southern s/w lag and I hope this upcoming one doesn't or it's a wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 All year these southern s/w lag and I hope this upcoming one doesn't or it's a wide right. I"m hoping the euro "bias" is in play here.....I'm not really that concerned about that sweet phase the GFS is showing given my latitude...If Euro is a bit quicker with ejecting that baja low, the storm will take a better track for me....I don't really care if New England gets a bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I"m hoping the euro "bias" is in play here.....I'm not really that concerned about that sweet phase the GFS is showing given my latitude...If Euro is a bit quicker with ejecting that baja low, the storm will take a better track for me....I don't really care if New England gets a bomb The next wave on the ECMWF seems pretty progressive too which prevents any meaningful chance they phase. I feel like I am staring at a 500 chart from not too long ago (January?) where this sort of thing happened. It was a "what could have been" scenario where 3 distinct s/w missed each other. Do you remember when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 You know, at second thought, the ECMWF is not really lagging the southern stream. The issues are entirely in the northern stream. The GGEM is more lagged than the ECMWF tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The differences between the ECMWF and the GFS are staggering... only 72 hours out... there is a shortwave pretty much right in place of where the GFS has a ridge. This is a pretty stunning difference only three days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 You know, at second thought, the ECMWF is not really lagging the southern stream. The issues are entirely in the northern stream. The GGEM is more lagged than the ECMWF tonight! Bingo... I think the northern stream features are what we are going to have to watch over the next few days, especially the northernmost feature since it pretty much has to stretch across the ridge before digging back into western Canada. With so much vorticity elongation, its going to be very difficult for the models to resolve a wave with only tiny spatial details as it scales the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Bingo... I think the northern stream features are what we are going to have to watch over the next few days, especially the northernmost feature since it pretty much has to stretch across the ridge before digging back into western Canada. With so much vorticity elongation, its going to be very difficult for the models to resolve a wave with only tiny spacial details as it scales the ridge. Yeah I mentioned that wave too a while back about possibly being a wild card. As Adam said in another thread, this is not going to be pretty for people responsible for forecasts in the Mid Atlantic / New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yeah I mentioned that wave too a while back about possibly being a wild card. As Adam said in another thread, this is not going to be pretty for people responsible for forecasts in the Mid Atlantic / New England. Yep... its going to be a nightmare, especially when you have an extreme solution on the table as well. Some of the GFS ensembles are off the wall insane in both directions. We could end up with a solution like this: Vise versa... we might also end up with this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I'll be sure to elaborate that nicely to clients, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The 006Z GFS had thje northern extent of the .25-.5 precip up to Baltimore/ DC. The run seemed pretty warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 For the Mid-Atlantic, snow to rain and back to snow at the end seems to be a possibility. None of the models have a 500 mb chart that Wes always posts...the magic chart that has signaled classic good snows in the DC area. In this blah winter, snow to rain and back to snow will feed the savage snow-weenie beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 We may not know until Saturday at this rate. The post earlier by one of the mets showing all the players in this thing really does give you an indication of just how hard this will be to nail down. We're still in the game, as is everyone from about Fla to Maine it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 0z euro ens paint 0.50" mean from ezf to roa----- 0.25" mean near philly to charleston. wva 0c 850 mean ric to roa fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I didn't read all the overnite posts, so hope this isn't a repeat: PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 220 AM EST WED FEB 15 2012 VALID 12Z SUN FEB 19 2012 - 12Z WED FEB 22 2012 USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 12Z/14 ECMWF AND ECENS MEAN FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THIS MANUAL BLEND FITS MULTI-DAY MEANS FROM THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS BEST...PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO THE SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC WAVE LIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DAY 4. THE 00Z/15 GFS IS THE FARTHEST NORTH OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH A WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE UKMET TAKES UP THE FLAT END OF THE GUIDANCE. OVER THE WEST...THE PACIFIC JET SEEMS DESTINED TO KEEP SPLITTING UPON REACHING THE CONTINENT...THOUGH THE SYSTEM COMING INTO THE NORTHWEST DAY 7 MAY HAVE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT TO STAY MOSTLY INTACT...WITH HIGH SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 0z euro ens paint 0.50" mean from ezf to roa----- 0.25" mean near philly to charleston. wva 0c 850 mean ric to roa fwiw Sort of same from the 12z EURO ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 0z GFS was off its rocker nuts insane. 6z is back in line with the other models....GFS really is a POS model for east coast storms in the medium-long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Kinda surprising to see LWX already say that ingredients for a sig snowfall are there in its morning AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The next wave on the ECMWF seems pretty progressive too which prevents any meaningful chance they phase. I feel like I am staring at a 500 chart from not too long ago (January?) where this sort of thing happened. It was a "what could have been" scenario where 3 distinct s/w missed each other. Do you remember when? I think a phase is not very likely and posted something like that yesterday as there are just too many players which makes it hard to get things right, not impossible but not very likely. The Euro ensemble mean has backed off to a more southern solution. TThe 06Z GFS still has something but is flatter than the 00Z but still looks like it might be mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The 06Z op GFS is an eastern outlier when compared to the 06Z GFS ensemble members. A trend north/westward with the coastal low at 12Z would not surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 EDIT: posted this in wrong thread... but I'll leave the relevant part. http://forecast.weat...0&highlight=off "INGREDIENTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ARE THERE...IT IS SIMPLY A WAITING GAME FOR THE MODELS TO DELIVER CONSISTENCY AND THUS CONFIDENCE." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 It's probably just my weenie eyes kidding me, but the NAM looks pretty good to me through 78 84. Correct me if I'm wrong, but (in theory) wouldn't this be a good look for us at that stage of the game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 It's probably just my weenie eyes kidding me, but the NAM looks pretty good to me through 78 84. Correct me if I'm wrong, but (in theory) wouldn't this be a good look for us at that stage of the game? I was thinking the same thing, but then again its just the 84 hr NAM...something to look at is all it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 It's probably just my weenie eyes kidding me, but the NAM looks pretty good to me through 78 84. Correct me if I'm wrong, but (in theory) wouldn't this be a good look for us at that stage of the game? I wouldn't worry about anything the NAM has to say for another day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I wouldn't worry about anything the NAM has to say until 30 minutes before the event starts agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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