PhineasC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I like this run. I like the signal for a big amplified storm with heavy precip. I'll take my chances Yeah, agreed. I am tired of .10 inch "storms" where half of that is rain anyway. Get a wound-up monster in here and pray for some temp help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Good Lord. Don't tell me this is going to turn into a cutter. Leesburg is mostly snow on this run. High 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Full phase on this run. H5 goes from BUF to NYC to the cape, which is likely the axis of heaviest snowfall though it may temporarily go over to rain in coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yeah, agreed. I am tired of .10 inch "storms" where half of that is rain anyway. Get a wound-up monster in here and pray for some temp help. I'm tired of storms that end 40 minutes after they start after tracking them for a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 last 4 runs all valid 1pm sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Leesburg is mostly snow on this run. High 33 What? You're kidding right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yeah, agreed. I am tired of .10 inch "storms" where half of that is rain anyway. Get a wound-up monster in here and pray for some temp help. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 What? You're kidding right? That's typically a great track for I-81 and west. But that low in the Lakes has to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 There may potentially be another window for something in the last 5 days of the month too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 There may potentially be another window for something in the last 5 days of the month too. There will be no one left in this subforum to enjoy that if this run plays out as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 FWIW, here is the 00z GGEM solution tonight (to compare it to the GFS Solution) 108 -- SE AL/SW GA border at 1003mb 120 -- off HSE by about 50-100 miles at 999mb 132 -- wait for color 144 -- not out yet There is a 50/50 low at 120 and a 1029 H in W Quebec as well at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Man oh man oh man. I can't believe we have in a matter of 24 hours gone from suppressed, to fringe light snow, to 992 MB Bomb and rain - and our 50/50 is getting weaker and weaker every run. I liked this better when it was suppressed, although I guess some wind and heavy rain from a 992 mb chesapeake bay storm might be somewhat interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 There will be no one left in this subforum to enjoy that if this run plays out as depicted. It's probably a mistake to attach high expectations for a cold snowy outcome at this point, given the preceding pattern winter-to-date, and lack of run to run stability in the best global models. 4-5 day out simulations are just that, and are bested viewed with a sense of detachment, even this evening's euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 lol the gfs went on a wild ride the last 24 hours... wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 last 4 runs all valid 1pm sunday should have figured. or kept reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 FWIW, here is the 00z GGEM solution tonight (to compare it to the GFS Solution) 108 -- SE AL/SW GA border at 1003mb 120 -- off HSE by about 50-100 miles at 999mb 132 -- wait for color 144 -- not out yet There is a 50/50 low at 120 and a 1029 H in W Quebec as well at 120 Northern edge of the precip shield is over RIC at 108 - this one should be coming further up the coast than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 00z UKIE at 96 has 1003 L near NO/SW MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 no matter how many times you post it, it will never be worth anything I was comparing the two to show how there is a huge difference, not much else. What harm is there in that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 GGEM seems to extend the precip shield about 50 miles north from 12z. Maximum extent is around the M-D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 no matter how many times you post it, it will never be worth anything The guys up in NE claim it did much better on a few storms this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 If you look at the 0Z GEFS, OP obviously doesn't have much support among the members or with the general track themes of today. I'm going to bed and feeling pretty good about the set up and that the 6Z or 12Z run won't attempt such a unlikely phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 gfs ens mean looks much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 If you run a loop at 500mb for the N PAC on the new 00z GFS, you'll see why the MJO is our friend. The propensity for a NE PAC ridge and NW PAC trough will allow waves to cut more southward than eastward across the western CONUS, allowing room for this potential phase in the eastern 2/3s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 If you run a loop at 500mb for the N PAC on the new 00z GFS, you'll see why the MJO is our friend. The propensity for a NE PAC ridge and NW PAC trough will allow waves to cut more southward than eastward across the western CONUS, allowing room for this potential phase in the eastern 2/3s. Now lets just hope it phases with the correct spoke of energy around the 50/50 otherwise its rain or OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 gfs ens mean looks much better They look really good... Can I cash out now? Much like the ggem/ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Now lets just hope it phases with the correct spoke of energy around the 50/50 otherwise its rain or OTS The bigger players can only take you so far sometimes, true... The other complicating issue is something that hasn't been talked about which is the wave dropping in from the NW Territories / Yukon. If this trends faster, it will help to compress the flow even more in Canada (buckling already from 50-50). It is not a big deal but it is something that may cause further alterations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I only saw the UKIE through 96... did 108/120 ever come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I only saw the UKIE through 96... did 108/120 ever come out? Yes it was OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yes it was OTS. But a hit for some of the mid Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 But a hit for some of the mid Atlantic? Unlike the GGEM i think it went OTS further south so Richmond did not get hit. I did not see it myself so i am not certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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