Inudaw Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Where is the 50/50 low. Its very weak compared to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The GFS is about to get crazy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 1004ish L NW SC at 96... yeah that might be a problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 00z GFS is rain with the primary over Michigan / strong closed off northern stream. Meanwhile down to 990mb at the mouth of the Chesapeake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 looking toasty this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 What sort of nonsense is this? A 997 slp Over the lakes and a 988 east of OC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 00z GFS is rain with the primary over Michigan / strong closed off northern stream. Meanwhile down to 990mb at the mouth of the Chesapeake. And you get a foot of snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Indeed.. the northern energy produced its own low in t he lakes.. There goes the high pressure to the north. 50/50 low being weak does not help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 hammers boston this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Now it's too amplified? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 At 18z I went through the GFS ensembles for the craziest member. It agrees nicely with the 00z GFS operational. Guess the Nogaps wasn't crazy enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 And you get a foot of snow . Yeah for about 6 hrs until the 6z GFS does something else. The changes in the northern stream are pretty significant. The 12z ECMWF ensembles today were telling that this may not be as suppressed as the op said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yeah for about 6 hrs until the 6z GFS does something else. The changes in the northern stream are pretty significant. The 12z ECMWF ensembles today were telling that this may not be as suppressed as the op said. So you think we are screwed down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 hammers boston this run And NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Good Lord. Don't tell me this is going to turn into a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 So you think we are screwed down here? Dude, it just went from too surpressed to too amplified with massive changes in just one run. Why would you conclude that we - or anyone for that matter - is "screwed"? Long way to go on this one...considering how much it is changing from run to run, it's a pretty low-confidence forecast at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I like this run. I like the signal for a big amplified storm with heavy precip. I'll take my chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I like this run. I like the signal for a big amplified storm with heavy precip. I'll take my chances Yes but this is either a home run or a Bill Buckner, i would just rather have a 3-5" storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I like this run. I like the signal for a big amplified storm with heavy precip. I'll take my chances I don't. Delay the phase another 6-12 hours then maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I like this run. I like the signal for a big amplified storm with heavy precip. I'll take my chances This is about all I took away from the GFS. The potential for a significant nor'easter remains higher than normal this period due to the global parameters being favorable and occasional modeling showing this is a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I like this run. I like the signal for a big amplified storm with heavy precip. I'll take my chances Yeah, agreed. I am tired of .10 inch "storms" where half of that is rain anyway. Get a wound-up monster in here and pray for some temp help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Good Lord. Don't tell me this is going to turn into a cutter. Leesburg is mostly snow on this run. High 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Full phase on this run. H5 goes from BUF to NYC to the cape, which is likely the axis of heaviest snowfall though it may temporarily go over to rain in coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yeah, agreed. I am tired of .10 inch "storms" where half of that is rain anyway. Get a wound-up monster in here and pray for some temp help. I'm tired of storms that end 40 minutes after they start after tracking them for a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 last 4 runs all valid 1pm sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Leesburg is mostly snow on this run. High 33 What? You're kidding right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yeah, agreed. I am tired of .10 inch "storms" where half of that is rain anyway. Get a wound-up monster in here and pray for some temp help. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 What? You're kidding right? That's typically a great track for I-81 and west. But that low in the Lakes has to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 There may potentially be another window for something in the last 5 days of the month too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 There may potentially be another window for something in the last 5 days of the month too. There will be no one left in this subforum to enjoy that if this run plays out as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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