yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Also, WeatherNC in the SE thread was saying that the jet is stronger on the 00z NAM than it was on the 18z GFS at 200mb, 250mb, and 300mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I am not sure why you expect someone to educate you on how to extrapolate the NAM, which is a pointless exercise. It's just a hypothetical. Forget that it's the nam. I just wanted to see if I was reading what it showed correctly and if I could predict what it might do under those conditions. I wasn't suggesting it was correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I actually disagree some about the nam. The upper low over eastern canada is huge and would really have to get out of the way to allow the low to track northeast very quickly. Big vortex usually are slower to move but as you say, at 84 hrs trying to extrapolate a model is pretty hard unless your only going to try to predict the next 12 hrs or so and then you have to hope the NAM has a decent forecast. Yea both features are strong on the Nam. The southern system and the low up north. You can tell just based on how cold the NAM is compared to the GFS at the same time period out east. But... why we discussing the 84 hour nam again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 It's the nogaps and it takes it to the lakes. That's the one model I tend not to look at as I think it is so far below the others in skill that it is not very good. I don't see it going up the coast as a amjor storm but some of the ensembles do so of course I could be wrong. In any official forecast the best call is just to say a chance of rain or snow. As Don Sutherland noted. with a positive AO and a La NIna there has only been one KU storm and not many 4 inch or greater but then I really don't know. That's a large part of why I think it doubtful we see a major snowstorm plus there are the temp issues. Well at least there has been a KU in a +AO/Nina. At least it is possible, albeit not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yea both features are strong on the Nam. The southern system and the low up north. You can tell just based on how cold the NAM is compared to the GFS at the same time period out east. But... why we discussing the 84 hour nam again? Because its interesting to some. Even if it's completely wrong, it's still an opportunity to learn from you guys. There's no harm done in doing a little if this then that. Maybe not the right thread, but everyone is just waiting on the gfs anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Because its interesting to some. Even if it's completely wrong, it's still an opportunity to learn from you guys. There's no harm done in doing a little if this then that. Maybe not the right thread, but everyone is just waiting on the gfs anyway. Eh not sure it's an opportunity to learn. Maybe an opportunity to learn that it doesn't mean anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 northern branch really digging down this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 This looks to be good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 PAC NW storm is not as strong or as south as 18z run so far...Im not totally positive as to what that means, just observing. While the 50-50 low is very very important, I do believe what you're saying is key to the ultimate amount of phasing. A less progressive / weaker PAC wave will give this thing some time to partially phase. In one pattern analog winter to now, 2006, it had a few suppressed events in the Feb 18-20 time frame (given RIC 0.5-1" both times). However, that pattern was actually faster, more zonal and lacked an appreciable southern s/w. This year's setup looks a lot more conducive (while our Feb 11-12 storm missed!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I dunno.. this might phase a lil too early for our liking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Where is the 50/50 low. Its very weak compared to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The GFS is about to get crazy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 1004ish L NW SC at 96... yeah that might be a problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 00z GFS is rain with the primary over Michigan / strong closed off northern stream. Meanwhile down to 990mb at the mouth of the Chesapeake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 looking toasty this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 What sort of nonsense is this? A 997 slp Over the lakes and a 988 east of OC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 00z GFS is rain with the primary over Michigan / strong closed off northern stream. Meanwhile down to 990mb at the mouth of the Chesapeake. And you get a foot of snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Indeed.. the northern energy produced its own low in t he lakes.. There goes the high pressure to the north. 50/50 low being weak does not help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 hammers boston this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Now it's too amplified? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 At 18z I went through the GFS ensembles for the craziest member. It agrees nicely with the 00z GFS operational. Guess the Nogaps wasn't crazy enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 And you get a foot of snow . Yeah for about 6 hrs until the 6z GFS does something else. The changes in the northern stream are pretty significant. The 12z ECMWF ensembles today were telling that this may not be as suppressed as the op said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yeah for about 6 hrs until the 6z GFS does something else. The changes in the northern stream are pretty significant. The 12z ECMWF ensembles today were telling that this may not be as suppressed as the op said. So you think we are screwed down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 hammers boston this run And NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Good Lord. Don't tell me this is going to turn into a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 So you think we are screwed down here? Dude, it just went from too surpressed to too amplified with massive changes in just one run. Why would you conclude that we - or anyone for that matter - is "screwed"? Long way to go on this one...considering how much it is changing from run to run, it's a pretty low-confidence forecast at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I like this run. I like the signal for a big amplified storm with heavy precip. I'll take my chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I like this run. I like the signal for a big amplified storm with heavy precip. I'll take my chances Yes but this is either a home run or a Bill Buckner, i would just rather have a 3-5" storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I like this run. I like the signal for a big amplified storm with heavy precip. I'll take my chances I don't. Delay the phase another 6-12 hours then maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I like this run. I like the signal for a big amplified storm with heavy precip. I'll take my chances This is about all I took away from the GFS. The potential for a significant nor'easter remains higher than normal this period due to the global parameters being favorable and occasional modeling showing this is a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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