ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Yeah but wasn't the 12/26/10 system modeled a few days before then the models lost it and brought it back again. It wasn't like it was never there before and then just appeared 48 hours before the event. If i remember correctly it was modeled and then lost but it was no where near as strong as it ended up when it was first modeled. It means nothing for this system and who knows how this will end up we just have to wait till probably tomorrow night or Thursday and then we will know. No sense in trying to find other events that happened in the past, that has no bearing on this outcome nor was the setup or the factors the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Raven Your right..the dec 26 storm came back to life 48 hours before the event. Forgot about that one..and for good reason:( The feb 2006 storm had nothing till Wednesday noon runs and that storm started Saturday evening Euro had 2/2006 OTS close to the event. But that ridge/trough alignment was better and the ridge was big. No real surface high though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 for a Major storm that beings on Saturday night or Sunday morning....You should know by Wednesday 00z that its coming. What big storm do you remember that was only modeled 2 days out where Thursday there was nothing...Friday showed a storm and then the storm started 48-60 hours later? I don't think many of us are banking on a major storm here. Our socks could get knocked off with tonight's and tomorrow's runs but I think todays 12z suite added some clarity. Flow is consistenly being modeled a bit flat to think we have a decent chance at a solid hammering. I'm just focused on the hp around the lakes to deliver just enough cold air and having the system bloom large enough over nc/va tidewater to put us in a solid .25.50 stripe. Off topic a bit but this is one odd nina. If you look at the snow depths in the colorado rockies it just doesn't paint a nina picture. I saw this earlier this year but was told that regular nina climo should kick in later in the season. Here we are in mid Feb and another string of closed lows keep cruising through the sw and adding to the precip totals in az, nm, and sw colorado. I guess the good part about this is that it's indicative of a healthy split flow and that's exactly what we need to get a decent event in the ma. Of course I'm hoping that tonight's and tomorrow's runs build on a more amped system but I have plenty reservations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Will be hugging the Dgex from here on out.. lol.. Makes for a good laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Will be hugging the Dgex from here on out.. lol.. Makes for a good laugh. 138 hrs is RAIN on DGEX http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 18z GFS looks to have an actually northern vort this time compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 138 hrs is RAIN on DGEX You have stooped to a new low analyzing the DGEX . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 GFS is gonna do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 18z GFS looks to have an actually northern vort this time compared to 12z Im not sure how it will effect the run but its deff further south with the storm in the PAC NW, so the Ridge is a little south too, I would think good things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 18z GFS looks to have an actually northern vort this time compared to 12z Yes... good h5 energy in C TX at 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 18z low has plenty of juice down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Oh 18z GFS what are you about to do. It is way more amped up with the low this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 You have stooped to a new low analyzing the DGEX . simply clarifying the fact that the map posted looked like DGEX had a decent amount of snow when it doesn't it has some but not like that 144 hr map suggests Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Low is tracking through central GA...temps are warm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 wow at 114 way north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 105 good h5 energy in C MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 there is a new High showing up in the GL, but maybe not strong enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 114 is the best GFS has looked so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 wow at 114 way north strong vort in NE GA at 114 as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Boatloads of QPF at 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Warm, but that High moving down should help out a bit. Sigh. Why can't this be 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Yea this is the GFS sterioud run. Temps start crashing once the low gets cranking. Let's see how far north the GFS take it. 114 .. is an impmressive image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 there is a new High showing up in the GL, but maybe not strong enough Sorry, but I can't worry/obsess about surface temps 114 hours out when we're close. I guess I'll get concerned in about 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 look at the GFS trying to be a big dog.... I hate its dream run being 114 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 goes ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 goes ENE I'd take that. @#$#%$$ kicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Nice run for DC. Definitely over 0.5 for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 This GFS run is probably the best we are going to get barring a miracle in this region IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Right at basically Now only if we can get this track to hold and some decently cold air at the surface, we'll be all set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 This GFS run is probably the best we are going to get barring a miracle in this region IMO I would lock this in right now and give up any upside if i could do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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