yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 105 good h5 energy in C MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 there is a new High showing up in the GL, but maybe not strong enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 114 is the best GFS has looked so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 wow at 114 way north strong vort in NE GA at 114 as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Boatloads of QPF at 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Warm, but that High moving down should help out a bit. Sigh. Why can't this be 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Yea this is the GFS sterioud run. Temps start crashing once the low gets cranking. Let's see how far north the GFS take it. 114 .. is an impmressive image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 there is a new High showing up in the GL, but maybe not strong enough Sorry, but I can't worry/obsess about surface temps 114 hours out when we're close. I guess I'll get concerned in about 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 look at the GFS trying to be a big dog.... I hate its dream run being 114 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 goes ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 goes ENE I'd take that. @#$#%$$ kicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Nice run for DC. Definitely over 0.5 for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 This GFS run is probably the best we are going to get barring a miracle in this region IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Right at basically Now only if we can get this track to hold and some decently cold air at the surface, we'll be all set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 This GFS run is probably the best we are going to get barring a miracle in this region IMO I would lock this in right now and give up any upside if i could do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 looks like RIC wins again, close to 1" qpf.... expect DT to be barking shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I'd take that. @#$#%$$ kicker that kicker may be interesting too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 looks like RIC wins again, close to 1" qpf.... expect DT to be barking shortly We are quite warm though, at least to begin with. Definitely starts as rain down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Should be interesting to see if the 18z GFS ensembles agree with the OP... or it the OP is out on its own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Should be interesting to see if the 18z GFS ensembles agree with the OP... or it the OP is out on its own I'd actually prefer the members to be a little SE of the op at this juncture.... Never want to walk the screw line of a north trend up until the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I'd actually prefer the members to be a little SE of the op at this juncture.... Never want to walk the screw line of a north trend up until the event Don't you think any further NW will also amp up the 850s? Unless is bombs further to maybe 992...not sure the correlation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The Gfs run to run contunity is amazing. 6z didn't even have a cloud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Getting a reasonably high QPF event is pretty important IMO given the air mass. We will waste some on rain/nonaccumulating snow. The modeled qpf will probably be too high and higher QPF implies more dynamics, heavier precip. I'd like to see us in the 0.5-1.0" range. Looks like to me we're only accumulating about half the qpf given bl.... Definitely going to need 1" qpf to be modeled to get a moderate event unless the gfs is just busting on the low level warmth which it could be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Getting a reasonably high QPF event is pretty important IMO given the air mass. We will waste some on rain/nonaccumulating snow. The modeled qpf will probably be too high and higher QPF implies more dynamics, heavier precip. I'd like to see us in the 0.5-1.0" range. With this pattern, I think that will be very tough to get and don't see this as a storm likely to get much farther north than us. I also composited all the 4 inch or greater events since 1950 during la nina years and the composite does not look like this pattern. That doesn't mean we can't see snow but is sort of a flag about getting too excited about the potential for a big one. I know you know that but Rob G whoever he still has higher probabilities than I think is warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Looks like to me we're only accumulating about half the qpf given bl.... Definitely going to need 1" qpf to be modeled to get a moderate event unless the gfs is just busting on the low level warmth which it could be half is generous on the 18z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 for a Major storm that beings on Saturday night or Sunday morning....You should know by Wednesday 00z that its coming. What big storm do you remember that was only modeled 2 days out where Thursday there was nothing...Friday showed a storm and then the storm started 48-60 hours later? When do you remember such wildly varying solutions at 5 days. When has an event been properly modeled at 5 days this year, and have that solution be reasonably close to what happens? These solutions aren't varying by just a little bit either. Have you already forgotten two weeks ago? Remember when the GFS and the Euro were running a low up through the plains, and HPC said they thought it would end up being a low transfer to the NC coast? They said that 7 days in advance. Did we have a low in Iowa on that one? Is the 18z gfs not evidence enough for you? It's just a bit different from the previous run, wouldn't you say? Would you feel good about it showing a major storm with you in the bullseye right now? You may be right. It may lock on tonight and never waver. But, no disrespect to you or ravensrule, I think I'll listen to the pros, and accept what to me would seem to be a very logical position to take given the model tendencies and performance lately, and wait until later in the week before I get too excited or depressed. Edit: It also depends upon what you are calling major. If you're talking a 4-6 that's one thing. If anyone here is envisioning a PDIII, I think you're dreaming. If it's a 4-6, to answer your question, I take you back to 1-30-2010. The 6z runs on Friday gave us nothing. By 6PM saturday, we had a region wide 4-7 inch snow on the ground. And that was on a storm that had been reasonably constistently modeled for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 108 GEFS 1008 L near TLH, or slightly north near AL/GA/FL border Dual low at 120? 1007 L about 200 miles east or so of Norfolk, but a 1008 closed contour shows up 200 or so miles east of the SC/NC border. Def S and E of the OP though, however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 108 GEFS 1008 L near TLH, or slightly north near AL/GA/FL border Dual low at 120? 1007 L about 200 miles east or so of Norfolk, but a 1008 closed contour shows up 200 or so miles east of the SC/NC border. Def S and E of the OP though, however CoastalWx doesn't think too much of them. His post is over in the NE forum. I don't know how to link specific posts. Edit: I don't really know why. A few of them look good, especially for NE. I think I counted 3 that make the full turn up the coast. The run to run changes are amazing, op and ens. These models seem to me to be very sophisticated so that would imply, I think, a very complex set of circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Given the pattern if people are looking (foolishly) for a 6-12" event we are going to have to see a real bombed out solution with voluminous QPF I would think. Probably in the 1.25"+ range. Getting fringed isn't a great solution with this air mass in late February for a significant event. You pretty much wanted to be pasted flush with a moisture laden bomb. I agree with you. I just want to see that solution starting Friday morning, getting better with each run until Saturday afternoon at which time I become to scared to turn on a computer or watch a radar on TV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Id love to see a lobe of that pv come down and phase in.. But I'm getting greedy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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