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2012 Winter Banter Thread #3


yoda

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LOL. Such hostility! Why can't you guys lighten up. You take all of this waaaaaay to seriously. Can't you just be happy for us?

if you feel the need to act the way you do sometimes simply because of your wx, over which you obviously have no control, nothing we say can be as bad as what ever other personal issue(s) you apparently have

don't get me wrong, as a lawyer I love people like you

peace :)

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Question the gfs is showing low pressure and moisture next monday. Im assuming this will be rain. Is this accurrate? This is of course dependent on the gfs being right. Thanks

That's a good question. The low is forecast to track just to your/our north which usually isn't good for getting snow as the surface temps end up being too warm. Where you live, you still might see sloppy snow, I doubt DC would but at that time range I still wouldn't completely rule it ou. it's a clipper suggesting no accumulation astemps are marginal and the precipitation should be light. Where have we heard that song before,.

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That's a good question. The low is forecast to track just to your/our north which usually isn't good for getting snow as the surface temps end up being too warm. Where you live, you still might see sloppy snow, I doubt DC would but at that time range I still wouldn't completely rule it ou. it's a clipper suggesting no accumulation astemps are marginal and the precipitation should be light. Where have we heard that song before,.

I'm new here and never heard of it. We can expect 1 foot easy, right?

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That's a good question. The low is forecast to track just to your/our north which usually isn't good for getting snow as the surface temps end up being too warm. Where you live, you still migrtht see sloppy snow, I doubt DC would but at that time range I still wouldn't completely rule it ou. it's a clipper suggesting no accumulation astemps are marginal and the precipitation should be light. Where have we heard that song before,.

I live in columbia, so i guess it might be snow, as depicted now, but nodoubt this will change many times. I didnt think it was a clipper, but in that case your right. Thanks i really dont want any more snow at this point, light or otherwise. Bring on warmth and spring.

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I live in columbia, so i guess it might be snow, as depicted now, but nodoubt this will change many times. I didnt think it was a clipper, but in that case your right. Thanks i really dont want any more snow at this point, light or otherwise. Bring on warmth and spring.

I thought you lived out towards teh mountains. I doubt you see any snow or if it does that it accumulates

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12z gfs doesn't offer much content for this thread. Maybe some flakes in the air on Monday. Maybe not.

It's almost time to close this thread down and start the spring banter thread. It will prob take the entire season to hit 50 pages. We're only 5-6 months away from decent speculation on the 12-13 winter. lol

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Has anyone been using wunderground's BestForecast? This is the first time I've really looked at it. They aren't kidding that they actually took into account personal weather stations. Here's my general neighborhood. I sit on a little ridge, so I get cold air drainage away from my house on decent to good radiational cooling nights. Sure enough, the forecast for my station for tonight is a good 5 degrees warmer than the cooler stations a couple of miles away.

Verification for my station

Wunderground BestForecast: 37°

NWS Point and Click Forecast: 33°

Actual low: 37.1°

So, Wunderground nailed it, but was it for the wrong reasons?

Other neighborhood station

Wunderground BestForecast: 32°

NWS Point and Click Forecast: 33°

Actual low: 37.5°

The wind stayed up, so the surface was pretty well mixed, meaning my station shouldn't have been (and wasn't) any higher than the other Falls Church spots. So, both wunderground and the NWS were too low last night, but the built in cushion for my site saved that forecast.

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12z gfs doesn't offer much content for this thread. Maybe some flakes in the air on Monday. Maybe not.

It's almost time to close this thread down and start the spring banter thread. It will prob take the entire season to hit 50 pages. We're only 5-6 months away from decent speculation on the 12-13 winter. lol

The 11-12 speculation about winter for most people wasn't very good. I know the guys that do look ahead put alot of work into their thoughts, and I respect the work that takes place there, but I think I'll try to keep an even keel about winter thoughts months in advance. Of course, I guess that would be a good attitude to have period. Just take what you get, enjoy it all, and hope for some excitement occasionally.

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Verification for my station

Wunderground BestForecast: 37°

NWS Point and Click Forecast: 33°

Actual low: 37.1°

So, Wunderground nailed it, but was it for the wrong reasons?

Other neighborhood station

Wunderground BestForecast: 32°

NWS Point and Click Forecast: 33°

Actual low: 37.5°

The wind stayed up, so the surface was pretty well mixed, meaning my station shouldn't have been (and wasn't) any higher than the other Falls Church spots. So, both wunderground and the NWS were too low last night, but the built in cushion for my site saved that forecast.

How far out were those forecasts issued?

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The 11-12 speculation about winter for most people wasn't very good. I know the guys that do look ahead put alot of work into their thoughts, and I respect the work that takes place there, but I think I'll try to keep an even keel about winter thoughts months in advance. Of course, I guess that would be a good attitude to have period. Just take what you get, enjoy it all, and hope for some excitement occasionally.

ENSO is going to play a heavy role in deciding our fate so that will keep my interest quite a bit this summer. I'm working on stats and data for each of the 3 possible outcomes and see what shakes out. As been said many times already, 3rd year Nina's or neutral after multi year Nina's don't offer much excitement. However, after a virtual snowless winter imby, a single storm that covers the grass next year will be a win.

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ENSO is going to play a heavy role in deciding our fate so that will keep my interest quite a bit this summer. I'm working on stats and data for each of the 3 possible outcomes and see what shakes out. As been said many times already, 3rd year Nina's or neutral after multi year Nina's don't offer much excitement. However, after a virtual snowless winter imby, a single storm that covers the grass next year will be a win.

Bob, we need a weak NINO (at least)....bottom line

anything short of that and we are assured a "meh" at best winter, or another dog

and that's not to say a NINO will guarantee us anything great, just give a us a fighting chance at snow when 850's are -2 or colder and thicknesses are 540 or lower, unlike this year

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Bob, we need a weak NINO (at least)....bottom line

anything short of that and we are assured a "meh" at best winter, or another dog

and that's not to say a NINO will guarantee us anything great, just give a us a fighting chance at snow when 850's are -2 or colder and thicknesses are 540 or lower, unlike this year

Easterly QBO is all we need!

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