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2012 Winter Banter Thread #3


yoda

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At least it only runs twice a day.. 14 is easier than 28.

One and done with the Euro Fantasy storm. :P

The one good thing about the Euro and its being run only twice a day is that the weenies get an extra 6 hours to fantasize about a run before their dreams get stomped on. It makes the meltdowns that much more interesting. :devilsmiley:

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12z NAM shows some breaks in the clouds (pre-frontal) in the late morning and early afternoon...temps get into the low to mid 70's; CAPE ~ 500/750 J/kg; shear was never an issue with this system (although uni-directional tomorrow); at the very least LWX will probably have to add thunder and wouldn't be surprised in the new Day 2 SPC outlook moves the slight risk up to around the MD/PA border (or at least mentions the potential for an upgrade given uncertainty in the instability tomorrow.).

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I went 10-14". Will bust badly but there are worse. What was your prediction?

I called for "All teasing no pleasing"

Will be correct on the no pleasing part. Will bust on the teasing part because there were almost no teases this winter unless you count D7+ forecasts and even those were few and far between.

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I called for "All teasing no pleasing"

Will be correct on the no pleasing part. Will bust on the teasing part because there were almost no teases this winter unless you count D7+ forecasts and even those were few and far between.

Yes. It was a wretched winter. I think the lowest you can go at DCA in a seasonal is around 8". Even if you foresee a 2001-02 winter you can't really call for an amount in the bottom 10th percentile in a long range. I could see a 5-8"/ 6-10" call at DCA as the lowest and in a winter like this that would be an A. I am more pissed about temps. There were real signs that we would be warm and I didn't stick to my guns on January. I also bought into the NAO cycle argument. I'm not going to throw out one of these "I called it 1st!" proclamations but I said the upper midwest/plains would torch this winter and I didn't see a lot of forecasts going for that. We will end up likely busting horribly on snow but seems silly to single out a below normal snow forecast when so many outlooks went bigger.

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Yes. It was a wretched winter. I think the lowest you can go at DCA in a seasonal is around 8". Even if you foresee a 2001-02 winter you can't really call for an amount in the bottom 10th percentile in a long range. I could see a 5-8"/ 6-10" call at DCA as the lowest and in a winter like this that would be an A. I am more pissed about temps. There were real signs that we would be warm and I didn't stick to my guns on January. I also bought into the NAO cycle argument. I'm not going to throw out one of these "I called it 1st!" proclamations but I said the upper midwest/plains would torch this winter and I didn't see a lot of forecasts going for that. We will end up likely busting horribly on snow but seems silly to single out a below normal snow forecast when so many outlooks went bigger.

I actually took one look at the CFS and CFS vesion 2 back in October and saw the wretched PDO combined with crappy temp and precip anomaly maps.

I figured if you're going to call snow less this is the winter to call it on.

The October storm didn't Phase me and I actually made a joke that our biggest storm was behind us in November. It came true for some spots.

97-98 I wouldn't have called snowless on. Although snowless, it happened it had the best stormtrack out of any winter I've ever seen. And how we got no snow with 10 992mb lows tracking over Ocean City still amazes me.

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Someone should seriously take a trip to new England as they are getting a monster long duration snow event. 12 inches?

Hopefully something changes or I don't want to hear that region complain about crap after what we all had to deal with and continue to deal with untill spring. COME ON SPRING!

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Hopefully something changes or I don't want to hear that region complain about crap after what we all had to deal with and continue to deal with untill spring. COME ON SPRING!

The BOS area and down into RI is having the worst winter ever right now. If this busts like everything else, we are right there with everyone else down in the MA.

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The BOS area and down into RI is having the worst winter ever right now. If this busts like everything else, we are right there with everyone else down in the MA.

this has been on the models as consistent as I've ever seen models prog a system

this looks like the real deal this time

good luck

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