CAPE Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 ...what he posted is still bad/untrue information. that's not a set up for snow. Not to mention during the same time frame the Euro shows a SE ridge and basically a torch. Very +AO and NAO....plus I believe the GFS ensembles were even warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Bob, there are some excellent winters in this list, so I'm not so sure why you're not enthused. But from what I know (which isn't a whole lot), we want a west based Nino if we want a lot of cold and snow. Totally agree with there being some good ones on the list. The better fitting analogs were not the good ones. It's all speculation anyway. I'm just having some fun here more than anything. You guys are used to me by now. I'm a #'s guy and all of my lr analysis is strictly #'s driven moreso than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 well, winter was fun... bring on spring and severe wx! first we have to get through the cool/cloudy/rainy march and april we've got on tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 first we have to get through the cool/cloudy/rainy march and april we've got on tap. pffft please - we didn't even have a winter, its been a cold spring... I will lol when we skip a true spring and go right into summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Some grades (feb 19 edition)... DT: Too high, then too low. Average the maps and you're pretty good. C+ JB: Ugly map, not even close in most spots. F+ JBerk: After polling Facebook members... A- (better luck next time but you kept us interested) CWG: People are getting tired of you being right all the time. But you missed on RIC. B Tony Pann: Models wrong, you wrong, everyone wrong. But you're not as big a name as JB. D LC: Did you issue a forecast? I never looked. C McGuirk: You thought it would snow in RIC. B+ Leesburg 04: Hows that 3" my friend? Incomplete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 first we have to get through the cool/cloudy/rainy march and april we've got on tap. It will probably hit 80 in March really early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Some grades (feb 19 edition)... DT: Too high, then too low. Average the maps and you're pretty good. C+ JB: Ugly map, not even close in most spots. F+ JBerk: After polling Facebook members... A- (better luck next time but you kept us interested) CWG: People are getting tired of you being right all the time. But you missed on RIC. B Tony Pann: Models wrong, you wrong, everyone wrong. But you're not as big a name as JB. D LC: Did you issue a forecast? I never looked. C McGuirk: You thought it would snow in RIC. B+ Leesburg 04: Hows that 3" my friend? Incomplete. Adam: A+ (other than his ROA forecast, but he still gets an A+ in my book) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 It will probably hit 80 in March really early. it might.. i know weeklies etc were torchy for early march at some pt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Some grades (feb 19 edition)... DT: Too high, then too low. Average the maps and you're pretty good. C+ JB: Ugly map, not even close in most spots. F+ JBerk: After polling Facebook members... A- (better luck next time but you kept us interested) CWG: People are getting tired of you being right all the time. But you missed on RIC. B Tony Pann: Models wrong, you wrong, everyone wrong. But you're not as big a name as JB. D LC: Did you issue a forecast? I never looked. C McGuirk: You thought it would snow in RIC. B+ Leesburg 04: Hows that 3" my friend? Incomplete. Where's H2O? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Cheers to the Euro for doing very well at the medium range, and the GFS for recovering from the up the coast debacle run to be the first model that nailed the shutout in DC proper. Jeers to the NAM. Even worse than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Some grades (feb 19 edition)... DT: Too high, then too low. Average the maps and you're pretty good. C+ JB: Ugly map, not even close in most spots. F+ JBerk: After polling Facebook members... A- (better luck next time but you kept us interested) CWG: People are getting tired of you being right all the time. But you missed on RIC. B Tony Pann: Models wrong, you wrong, everyone wrong. But you're not as big a name as JB. D LC: Did you issue a forecast? I never looked. C McGuirk: You thought it would snow in RIC. B+ Leesburg 04: Hows that 3" my friend? Incomplete. We don't forecast for Richmond and put no effort into the map down that way. CWG actually got a couple people claiming we hyped the event on oen of Jason's posts after he pretty much said we'd see less than inch and maybe nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Adam: A+ (other than his ROA forecast, but he still gets an A+ in my book) That means I get an A too since he had 1" for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Where's H2O? Its a partial list feel free to fill in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 That means I get an A too since he had 1" for DCA. Ill give you an A. DCA got a T, not quite the "1-2 lock" you forecasted, but wasn't a complete shutout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 We don't forecast for Richmond and put no effort into the map down that way. CWG actually got a couple people claiming we hyped the event on oen of Jason's posts after he pretty much said we'd see less than inch and maybe nothing. Maybe we should put a circle on the map with dragons outside it so people know RIC doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Maybe we should put a circle on the map with dragons outside it so people know RIC doesn't matter. Let me know if you need help with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Ill give you an A. DCA got a T, not quite the "1-2 lock" you forecasted, but wasn't a complete shutout I should not have mini caved 48 hrs out. I was not excpecting the body of the storm to come north but thought we could eke out a slight shift in the final bit. Unfortunately I still am kinda weenie when I think it might actually snow. It was pretty apparant by Sat that was going to be a problem... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I should not have mini caved 48 hrs out. I was not excpecting the body of the storm to come north but thought we could eke out a slight shift in the final bit. Unfortunately I still am kinda weenie when I think it might actually snow. It was pretty apparant by Sat that was going to be a problem... I am pretty sure 90% or so of the posters here all weenied out 48hrs prior, so don't feel too bad. But at least you and Matt got to go chasing and see some good snow, so it wasn't a complete waste of a week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I am pretty sure 90% or so of the posters here all weenied out 48hrs prior, so don't feel too bad. But at least you and Matt got to go chasing and see some good snow, so it wasn't a complete waste of a week! yeah.. was a good time. better than i'd have thought. it's easier finding a large snow band than a tornado, that's for sure. now i just need to convince matt go come to the plains sometime. it was kinda sad leaving the snow and coming home tho heh. i bet it was gorgeous this morning.. my dog would not have been happy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 We don't forecast for Richmond and put no effort into the map down that way. Considering that I'm sure you get quite a number of readers and visitors from south of Fredericksburg and West of Manassas, particularly out towards the Valley, it's a shame you ignore the state south and west of US17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 yeah.. was a good time. better than i'd have thought. it's easier finding a large snow band than a tornado, that's for sure. now i just need to convince matt go come to the plains sometime. it was kinda sad leaving the snow and coming home tho heh. i bet it was gorgeous this morning.. my dog would not have been happy though. It was beautiful this morning. My broccoli and garlic were standing proud against the snow this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Some grades (feb 19 edition)... DT: Too high, then too low. Average the maps and you're pretty good. C+ JB: Ugly map, not even close in most spots. F+ JBerk: After polling Facebook members... A- (better luck next time but you kept us interested) CWG: People are getting tired of you being right all the time. But you missed on RIC. B Tony Pann: Models wrong, you wrong, everyone wrong. But you're not as big a name as JB. D LC: Did you issue a forecast? I never looked. C McGuirk: You thought it would snow in RIC. B+ Leesburg 04: Hows that 3" my friend? Incomplete. Lol....give me credit for never waffling at least....I will gladly refund money to anyone who donated to my trust fund Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Some grades (feb 19 edition)... DT: Too high, then too low. Average the maps and you're pretty good. C+ JB: Ugly map, not even close in most spots. F+ JBerk: After polling Facebook members... A- (better luck next time but you kept us interested) CWG: People are getting tired of you being right all the time. But you missed on RIC. B Tony Pann: Models wrong, you wrong, everyone wrong. But you're not as big a name as JB. D LC: Did you issue a forecast? I never looked. C McGuirk: You thought it would snow in RIC. B+ Leesburg 04: Hows that 3" my friend? Incomplete. A- for Berk? really? I cant give him more than a C...we all know he explains things well and has a way of making his followers believe what he says no matter what it is, but the fact is he put a snow map out that busted horribly, you dont get a pass on that just because you said it had high bust probability. He hammered the north trend card WAY too hard. but otherwise I agree with the rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 A- for Berk? really? I cant give him more than a C...we all know he explains things well and has a way of making his followers believe what he says no matter what it is, but the fact is he put a snow map out that busted horribly, you dont get a pass on that just because you said it had high bust probability. He hammered the north trend card WAY too hard. but otherwise I agree with the rest Berk gave himself an A- following the weekend prior's Saturday snowfall... it was clearly a jab at him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Berk gave himself an A- following the weekend prior's Saturday snowfall... it was clearly a jab at him. Ahh I see lol, sometimes I have trouble distinguishing Jabs from praises lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Lol....give me credit for never waffling at least....I will gladly refund money to anyone who donated to my trust fund Credit earned and it was a near miss at the very least. You never shot for the moon or waffled and that makes your forecast the minority with this storm. I found a sure fire way to never bust on a snow forecast. I just don't make one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Some grades (feb 19 edition)... DT: Too high, then too low. Average the maps and you're pretty good. C+ JB: Ugly map, not even close in most spots. F+ JBerk: After polling Facebook members... A- (better luck next time but you kept us interested) CWG: People are getting tired of you being right all the time. But you missed on RIC. B Tony Pann: Models wrong, you wrong, everyone wrong. But you're not as big a name as JB. D LC: Did you issue a forecast? I never looked. C McGuirk: You thought it would snow in RIC. B+ Leesburg 04: Hows that 3" my friend? Incomplete. H2O: A++++++++++ My map was funny and verified Where's H2O? Hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 March 1st threat still showing up. lol GFS showing rain but 850's and surface are close enough. Euro trying to show an east based -nao but not really. Only 10 days left to figure it out. In all honesty, saying we have no chance at another "chance" at snow isn't wise just yet. March lions are rare nowadays but maybe....just maybe..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 March 1st threat still showing up. lol GFS showing rain but 850's and surface are close enough. Euro trying to show an east based -nao but not really. Only 10 days left to figure it out. In all honesty, saying we have no chance at another "chance" at snow isn't wise just yet. March lions are rare nowadays but maybe....just maybe..... I'm not tracking jack squat after last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I'm not tracking jack squat after last week Agreed 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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