BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Some grades (feb 19 edition)... DT: Too high, then too low. Average the maps and you're pretty good. C+ JB: Ugly map, not even close in most spots. F+ JBerk: After polling Facebook members... A- (better luck next time but you kept us interested) CWG: People are getting tired of you being right all the time. But you missed on RIC. B Tony Pann: Models wrong, you wrong, everyone wrong. But you're not as big a name as JB. D LC: Did you issue a forecast? I never looked. C McGuirk: You thought it would snow in RIC. B+ Leesburg 04: Hows that 3" my friend? Incomplete. A- for Berk? really? I cant give him more than a C...we all know he explains things well and has a way of making his followers believe what he says no matter what it is, but the fact is he put a snow map out that busted horribly, you dont get a pass on that just because you said it had high bust probability. He hammered the north trend card WAY too hard. but otherwise I agree with the rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 A- for Berk? really? I cant give him more than a C...we all know he explains things well and has a way of making his followers believe what he says no matter what it is, but the fact is he put a snow map out that busted horribly, you dont get a pass on that just because you said it had high bust probability. He hammered the north trend card WAY too hard. but otherwise I agree with the rest Berk gave himself an A- following the weekend prior's Saturday snowfall... it was clearly a jab at him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Berk gave himself an A- following the weekend prior's Saturday snowfall... it was clearly a jab at him. Ahh I see lol, sometimes I have trouble distinguishing Jabs from praises lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Lol....give me credit for never waffling at least....I will gladly refund money to anyone who donated to my trust fund Credit earned and it was a near miss at the very least. You never shot for the moon or waffled and that makes your forecast the minority with this storm. I found a sure fire way to never bust on a snow forecast. I just don't make one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Some grades (feb 19 edition)... DT: Too high, then too low. Average the maps and you're pretty good. C+ JB: Ugly map, not even close in most spots. F+ JBerk: After polling Facebook members... A- (better luck next time but you kept us interested) CWG: People are getting tired of you being right all the time. But you missed on RIC. B Tony Pann: Models wrong, you wrong, everyone wrong. But you're not as big a name as JB. D LC: Did you issue a forecast? I never looked. C McGuirk: You thought it would snow in RIC. B+ Leesburg 04: Hows that 3" my friend? Incomplete. H2O: A++++++++++ My map was funny and verified Where's H2O? Hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 March 1st threat still showing up. lol GFS showing rain but 850's and surface are close enough. Euro trying to show an east based -nao but not really. Only 10 days left to figure it out. In all honesty, saying we have no chance at another "chance" at snow isn't wise just yet. March lions are rare nowadays but maybe....just maybe..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 March 1st threat still showing up. lol GFS showing rain but 850's and surface are close enough. Euro trying to show an east based -nao but not really. Only 10 days left to figure it out. In all honesty, saying we have no chance at another "chance" at snow isn't wise just yet. March lions are rare nowadays but maybe....just maybe..... I'm not tracking jack squat after last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I'm not tracking jack squat after last week Agreed 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I'm not tracking jack squat after last week lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 This is probably one of the more painful misses for me, nearing the Dec 26 2010 and Jan 5 2002 category. Only a few miles to the south west of me got a couple inches, per the NWS reports...and only a trace here. I guess it was a bad omen that the LWX radar was out for this event. Looks like the only thing to track this week is a possible clipper that will dry out over the mountains and then it will be March. Good riddance to an aweful winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Woe is me... we get the fact the storm missed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Something is horribly wrong with Jebman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Something is horribly wrong with Jebman. Is that news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Something is horribly wrong with Jebman. If it took you this long to figure out, you are not as smart as i thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I'm not tracking jack squat after last week Agreed 100%. lol lol- lies. total lies. All snow threats will always be tracked by the usual suspects because we have an acute and uncontrollable affliction. We spent hours discussion the difference between a 1/2" and 1" multiple times year. Not clicking the ncep or wunderground link when there is chatter about snow is like expecting a meth-head to take a pass on a free hit because he's tired of taking hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I think Ian and I did fine yesterday but kind of wish we had gone west into some elevation where 6-10" amounts were more prevalent. It was tough because radar coverage wasn't as great out there and we were fearful of being trapped and less mobile if/when the storm pushed east. When we were nearing culpeper the radar was screaming to go southeast and I am glad we did because we wanted to get into +SN. It ended up elevation wasn't an issue after dark with temps in the 30-32 range. I'm guessing I 81 corridor had higher ratios with more duration versus rates though I'm sure they got in super bands as well. only thing we could have done better maybe was leave earlier to get further southwest initially. i think we hit about the best snow we could.. doubt anyone saw sustained rates much or any higher than we did, tho we could have found better accum i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I think Ian and I did fine yesterday but kind of wish we had gone west into some elevation where 6-10" amounts were more prevalent. It was tough because radar coverage wasn't as great out there and we were fearful of being trapped and less mobile if/when the storm pushed east. When we were nearing culpeper the radar was screaming to go southeast and I am glad we did because we wanted to get into +SN. It ended up elevation wasn't an issue after dark with temps in the 30-32 range. I'm guessing I 81 corridor had higher ratios with more duration versus rates though I'm sure they got in super bands as well. I thought you guys were spot on. Considering the time you guys left dc, going too far s&w would have been a mistake. If you left earlier in the day you would have had more time to get to the areas that came in with higher snow totals but since your chase was more for experiencing the highest rates vs deepest snow, you pretty much got good bang for the buck imo. lol- Ian and I posted at the exact same time. what Ian said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 We don't forecast for Richmond and put no effort into the map down that way. CWG actually got a couple people claiming we hyped the event on oen of Jason's posts after he pretty much said we'd see less than inch and maybe nothing. seems like the ULL was a perfect latitude for a southern virginia snow. we just needed it be a little further north i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 What the heck is going on in the obs thread? That is some of the weirdest stuff I've ever seen here. Great pics everyone. Too bad that storm couldn't have turned up the coast. I wish now that I'd have chased too. I have family in c- ville or I could have driven down to Wytheville or Blacksburg. I think this has been one of the worst winters I remember on a national scale. Next year might not favor us, but I'll bet it isn't this bad on a scale this large. BTW, did dt's disaster forecast end up busting low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Well this winter was hell. I'm not tracking any storms the rest of the year unless we appear to be getting something like March 1993, and it's on the models about 6 hours prior to the event, and even then I'll be skeptical. Great job to Wes this year on predicting the garbage that we got. I've never seen a more unbiased forecaster than Wes, and I'm glad we have him in this region to keep us all level... well as level as I guess we could expect with the personalities around here. Anyway, hope next winter is decent, but it's time for me to get on out there and enjoy spring/summer/fall. I'll be back next December to enjoy tracking the fantasies while hoping for those fantasies to become reality. It's a humbling hobby for sure. This storm humbled some of the absolute best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 18z gfs has a decent les event for us next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Well this winter was hell. I'm not tracking any storms the rest of the year unless we appear to be getting something like March 1993, and it's on the models about 6 hours prior to the event, and even then I'll be skeptical. Great job to Wes this year on predicting the garbage that we got. I've never seen a more unbiased forecaster than Wes, and I'm glad we have him in this region to keep us all level... well as level as I guess we could expect with the personalities around here. Anyway, hope next winter is decent, but it's time for me to get on out there and enjoy spring/summer/fall. I'll be back next December to enjoy tracking the fantasies while hoping for those fantasies to become reality. It's a humbling hobby for sure. This storm humbled some of the absolute best. Thanks but except for this one there has been little drama as no event except for the Octover one out west has had much chance. This one did but we got unlucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Thanks but except for this one there has been little drama as no event except for the Octover one out west has had much chance. This one did but we got unlucky. Yeah. I was referring more to your skill over several years rather than this particular year. You seem to be the best at knowing when to pull the trigger and when to remain skeptical and cautious. Anyway, to better things next year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 What the heck is going on in the obs thread? That is some of the weirdest stuff I've ever seen here. Great pics everyone. Too bad that storm couldn't have turned up the coast. I wish now that I'd have chased too. I have family in c- ville or I could have driven down to Wytheville or Blacksburg. I think this has been one of the worst winters I remember on a national scale. Next year might not favor us, but I'll bet it isn't this bad on a scale this large. BTW, did dt's disaster forecast end up busting low? I agree, I will be 46 this year and do not remeber any lack of winter that covered the lower 48. Also wonder (in the data bases out there) if the October snow that some of us had corilates to a late spring event? I'd prefer no April surprise yet wonder what are the odds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Yeah. I was referring more to your skill over several years rather than this particular year. You seem to be the best at knowing when to pull the trigger and when to remain skeptical and cautious. Anyway, to better things next year!! it should be that way, especially when you're getting paid to make a forecast. some of the mets out there are unprofessional. in most professions, they would be fired because they didn't do their job right. it's one thing to make a bold prediction, but some of them i feel are doing it for the attention which is pretty lame. but hey, i guess there are those people that continue to follow their forecasts so to each his own. i prefer to listen to objective forecasts and it's why i'm grateful for the nws (which we pay for). they aren't getting paid to entertain, they are getting paid to make a reliable forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I agree, I will be 46 this year and do not remeber any lack of winter that covered the lower 48. Also wonder (in the data bases out there) if the October snow that some of us had corilates to a late spring event? I'd prefer no April surprise yet wonder what are the odds? It seems winter decided to plant roots on the other side of the globe this year. Alaska and much of Europe did fantastic this winter. Our time will come again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 this will make ya all feel better LOL URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 932 AM HST MON FEB 20 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS... HIZ028-210745- /O.CAN.PHFO.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120221T1900Z/ /O.NEW.PHFO.WW.Y.0001.120220T1932Z-120221T1900Z/ BIG ISLAND SUMMITS- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MAUNA LOA AND MAUNA KEA ABOVE 8000 FEET 932 AM HST MON FEB 20 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM HST TUESDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM HST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * LOCATIONS...BIG ISLAND SUMMITS. * HAZARD TYPES...PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. * TIMING...THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS LEADING TO ROAD CLOSURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Ton of meltage today! I'd say 2 inches left most places. Snow today, gone tomorrow. I'd love another event- but considering we about maxed out this event-- had the largest total for an actual city( 8.1) -- If we "engage spring", I'm OK. My snow need has been satisfied. 2 .2 in an hour, another 2 hours with a little over 1 inch an hour-- great storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 I get much more work done with no "phantom" storms to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Is there still potential for Feb 30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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