Sparky Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Tony Pann who is the 3rd string met on the local NBC channel here in Baltimore . But Tom T., the head met, started that crap on Friday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 And now we move on to the next system with snow potential. 18Z GFS at hour 240: Long ways out but it has been on the 06Z and 12Z GFS in the same day or two time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 And now we move on to the next system with snow potential. 18Z GFS at hour 240: Long ways out but it has been on the 06Z and 12Z GFS in the same day or two time frame. With a ++AO on the way, I don't think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 But Tom T., the head met, started that crap on Friday evening. Yes he did and he is generally extremely conservative so i was shocked. I guess every Met has an inner JB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Maybe by time at the station...but John is the weekend's guy. Pann is #2 ranking after TT. Well then i stand corrected, and that makes it even worse that he was posting that crap this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Hows the 2-4 in Balt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Hows the 2-4 in Balt? The 2-4 clouds ruined my stargazing tonight, i am pissed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 And now we move on to the next system with snow potential. 18Z GFS at hour 240: Long ways out but it has been on the 06Z and 12Z GFS in the same day or two time frame. not so fast nova. copyright on this one has already been filed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Yes he did and he is generally extremely conservative so i was shocked. I guess every Met has an inner JB. agreed, and have always liked Tom T for the most part with his forecasts. On a related note, I am liking the new guy on WMAR. He handled this thing well going back to Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 funny...i said the same thing in a different thread. What winter storm dosent include some kind of disaster in Richmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 agreed, and have always liked Tom T for the most part with his forecasts. On a related note, I am liking the new guy on WMAR. He handled this thing well going back to Friday. I have not even watched him, since Norm Lewis left i only watch channel 11 weather. I guess i will check it out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I have not even watched him, since Norm Lewis left i only watch channel 11 weather. I guess i will check it out now. he;s on now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 This is going to be one guiet thread this week. We'll see if anything realistic starts materializing this week on the models, otherwise it may be time to close it down and start the early sping banter thread. I have a question about the mjo. After watching it for months and FINALLY have it roll through 8-1-2, why did the east remain warm? I don't understand the teleconnection beyond the #'s and basic forcing but something else clearly stood in the way of the mjo helping us this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I was too bold on my initial call of flurries in Baltimore it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 This is going to be one guiet thread this week. We'll see if anything realistic starts materializing this week on the models, otherwise it may be time to close it down and start the early sping banter thread. I have a question about the mjo. After watching it for months and FINALLY have it roll through 8-1-2, why did the east remain warm? I don't understand the teleconnection beyond the #'s and basic forcing but something else clearly stood in the way of the mjo helping us this time around. I want some big freezes but other than that start throwing severe weather days at me. I'll be happy then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 it's clearly rain--the panel before is all rain and this is also? all rain. just stop. This is the banter thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 richmond is an even bigger bust town than dc... no one who is not half brain dead believed they were getting a big snow funny...i said the same thing in a different thread. What winter storm dosent include some kind of disaster in Richmond Bump and troll, baby. Bump and troll... Ian, where was your road trip to again? Oh, right. The Richmond metro area. My son had a great time making a snowman with his parents this morning in our 4+" of disaster this morning. P.S. I troll now only because I can't tell you the number of times I've sat in Richmond with 35* and rain and had to listen to my in-laws in Bethesda and my family in Staunton tell me about the snow they're getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Bump and troll, baby. Bump and troll... Ian, where was your road trip to again? Oh, right. The Richmond metro area. My son had a great time making a snowman with his parents this morning in our 4+" of disaster this morning. P.S. I troll now only because I can't tell you the number of times I've sat in Richmond with 35* and rain and had to listen to my in-laws in Bethesda and my family in Staunton tell me about the snow they're getting. you know i post too much when im one of the few who was adamantly against a north trend thruout and still get trolled afterward. was surprised the good stuff made it to RIC tho... told a friend 1-2" with more west y-day morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Berk was saying the same thing IIRC How can you be so bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Where the 384 hr GFS is always discussed until Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Bump and troll, baby. Bump and troll... Ian, where was your road trip to again? Oh, right. The Richmond metro area. My son had a great time making a snowman with his parents this morning in our 4+" of disaster this morning. P.S. I troll now only because I can't tell you the number of times I've sat in Richmond with 35* and rain and had to listen to my in-laws in Bethesda and my family in Staunton tell me about the snow they're getting. congrats down there well, 09/10 saw the EZF to PHL score, 10/11 it was PHL to ME and this year the SE (relative to the other areas along the east coast that is) hopefully, we can all come through next year if the CFSv2 weak NINO comes true http://www.cpc.ncep....3/glbSSTSea.gif and it really is time for spring; you can feel the sun beating down on your skin now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 hopefully, we can all come through next year if the CFSv2 weak NINO comes true http://www.cpc.ncep....3/glbSSTSea.gif I like the look of that. Although I've heard people mentioning "nina hangover" for next year and that last year was really a "nino hangover". Not sure exactly what that means scientifically (or if it's scientific at all). Ironically, some folks in the main forum were saying a neutral SST profile would be even worse than a 3rd year nina? Again not sure if that's just based on analogs or what. Are there any good maps (calling mapgirl!) of total seasonal snowfall for 09-10 and 10-11 for the entire NE corridor from VA to ME? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I like the look of that. Although I've heard people mentioning "nina hangover" for next year and that last year was really a "nino hangover". Not sure exactly what that means scientifically (or if it's scientific at all). Ironically, some folks in the main forum were saying a neutral SST profile would be even worse than a 3rd year nina? Again not sure if that's just based on analogs or what. Are there any good maps (calling mapgirl!) of total seasonal snowfall for 09-10 and 10-11 for the entire NE corridor from VA to ME? I actually already started looking into this and I wasn't enthused with Ninos following Nina's. Here's the breakdown and you'll see what I mean: 1951-52: weak nino following weak nina 1957-58: strong nino following a 3 year Nina 1963-64: weak nino following weak nina 1965-66: strong nino following weak/mod nina 1968-69: weak nino following very weak nina 1972-73: strong nino following 2 year nina (2nd year weak) 1976-77: weak nino following 3 year nina (3rd year mod/strong) The list kinda ends there. Haven't had a true nino following a nina since. To expand on the list, here are all the enso neutral years following any nina (single or multi year): 1985-86: neutral following single year weak/mod nina 1989-90: neutral following single year mod/strong nina 1996-97: neutral following the greatest weak nina in dc's history 2001-02: neutral following 3 nina's in a row with the last one being weak 2008-09: neutral following a mod nina These are all the analog years we have to work with unless we have another nina of course but I don't think that's going to happen. If we have a nino next year, 72-73 and 76-77 are probably the best matches but that is just a guess and a guess. We'll see but I kinda hate to say this, odds kinda seem to be stacked against us again next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 you know i post too much when im one of the few who was adamantly against a north trend thruout and still get trolled afterward. was surprised the good stuff made it to RIC tho... told a friend 1-2" with more west y-day morning. I'm just giving you guys crap. I only pulled you out because Ji had done so. I really wanted to call Ji out since he tried to cancel my f-ing winter last May. I hope he sucked an egg while we built snowmen this morning, LOL. I was fairly adamant against a north trend, too, but did not expect it to go as south as it did. I was chatting on Facebook with a few guys when that extremely NW GFS rain bomb came in and said "no way, this is the most NW solution we'll see and it'll move back south." I felt the same as you yesterday morning after the 00z NAM/GFS/ECMWF runs. I was actually a little afraid we wouldn't even get that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 GFS advertising some nice upslope/lake effect snows coming this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I actually already started looking into this and I wasn't enthused with Ninos following Nina's. Here's the breakdown and you'll see what I mean: 1951-52: weak nino following weak nina 1957-58: strong nino following a 3 year Nina 1963-64: weak nino following weak nina 1965-66: strong nino following weak/mod nina 1968-69: weak nino following very weak nina 1972-73: strong nino following 2 year nina (2nd year weak) 1976-77: weak nino following 3 year nina (3rd year mod/strong) The list kinda ends there. Haven't had a true nino following a nina since. To expand on the list, here are all the enso neutral years following any nina (single or multi year): 1985-86: neutral following single year weak/mod nina 1989-90: neutral following single year mod/strong nina 1996-97: neutral following the greatest weak nina in dc's history 2001-02: neutral following 3 nina's in a row with the last one being weak 2008-09: neutral following a mod nina These are all the analog years we have to work with unless we have another nina of course but I don't think that's going to happen. If we have a nino next year, 72-73 and 76-77 are probably the best matches but that is just a guess and a guess. We'll see but I kinda hate to say this, odds kinda seem to be stacked against us again next year. That list of neutral winters is pretty abysmal. 72-73 and 76-77 were both wintry in some sense, although not strictly snowy. Maybe we can hope that we are in a long term pattern of quasi-persistent -NAO/-AO and that this year was the exception to that pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I actually already started looking into this and I wasn't enthused with Ninos following Nina's. Here's the breakdown and you'll see what I mean: 1951-52: weak nino following weak nina 1957-58: strong nino following a 3 year Nina 1963-64: weak nino following weak nina 1965-66: strong nino following weak/mod nina 1968-69: weak nino following very weak nina 1972-73: strong nino following 2 year nina (2nd year weak) 1976-77: weak nino following 3 year nina (3rd year mod/strong) Bob, there are some excellent winters in this list, so I'm not so sure why you're not enthused. But from what I know (which isn't a whole lot), we want a west based Nino if we want a lot of cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Bob, there are some excellent winters in this list, so I'm not so sure why you're not enthused. But from what I know (which isn't a whole lot), we want a west based Nino if we want a lot of cold and snow. yeah, I remember Wes saying back in 09/10 that we want the tropical forcing along and just east of the dateline and that CFS SSTA map seemed to focus the most warming right around that spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 well, winter was fun... bring on spring and severe wx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 That list of neutral winters is pretty abysmal. 72-73 and 76-77 were both wintry in some sense, although not strictly snowy. Maybe we can hope that we are in a long term pattern of quasi-persistent -NAO/-AO and that this year was the exception to that pattern. lol- abysmal was the exact same word that came to my mind. ghastly and gruesome work pretty well too. I think the nao was more evil than the ao this year. Statistically, we had our "mini winter" period already. Mid jan-mid feb show a clear -ao / +pna signal. The nao was the total stinker and I think that was at the root of ruining our much antcipated "mini winter" this year. On paper the last 30 days look much better than they turned out to be. Because I seem to have mental issues and can't stop looking at #'s, I already started digging into nao stats because it appears that the nao is the decision maker for our winters while the other teleconnections play supporting roles. We just came out of a 3 year -nao winter regime that ended this year. That's happened more times in the past than we probably realize. I'll post a full analysis at some other time. The 60's were king with (2) 4 year stretches of -nao winters. It appears that all 3 & 4 year stretches of -nao decembers follow 2 years of +nao decembers. The following winter months are mixed though. Haven't found a good pattern in the #'s yet but I will. However, there seems to be a december connection that goes beyond coincidence. If I had to make a total guess at this point, the stats argue for another warm december in 2012. Seems insane to even say such a thing 10 months in advance but once I post the #'s I think there is some merit to the statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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