Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I like the look of that. Although I've heard people mentioning "nina hangover" for next year and that last year was really a "nino hangover". Not sure exactly what that means scientifically (or if it's scientific at all). Ironically, some folks in the main forum were saying a neutral SST profile would be even worse than a 3rd year nina? Again not sure if that's just based on analogs or what. Are there any good maps (calling mapgirl!) of total seasonal snowfall for 09-10 and 10-11 for the entire NE corridor from VA to ME? I actually already started looking into this and I wasn't enthused with Ninos following Nina's. Here's the breakdown and you'll see what I mean: 1951-52: weak nino following weak nina 1957-58: strong nino following a 3 year Nina 1963-64: weak nino following weak nina 1965-66: strong nino following weak/mod nina 1968-69: weak nino following very weak nina 1972-73: strong nino following 2 year nina (2nd year weak) 1976-77: weak nino following 3 year nina (3rd year mod/strong) The list kinda ends there. Haven't had a true nino following a nina since. To expand on the list, here are all the enso neutral years following any nina (single or multi year): 1985-86: neutral following single year weak/mod nina 1989-90: neutral following single year mod/strong nina 1996-97: neutral following the greatest weak nina in dc's history 2001-02: neutral following 3 nina's in a row with the last one being weak 2008-09: neutral following a mod nina These are all the analog years we have to work with unless we have another nina of course but I don't think that's going to happen. If we have a nino next year, 72-73 and 76-77 are probably the best matches but that is just a guess and a guess. We'll see but I kinda hate to say this, odds kinda seem to be stacked against us again next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 you know i post too much when im one of the few who was adamantly against a north trend thruout and still get trolled afterward. was surprised the good stuff made it to RIC tho... told a friend 1-2" with more west y-day morning. I'm just giving you guys crap. I only pulled you out because Ji had done so. I really wanted to call Ji out since he tried to cancel my f-ing winter last May. I hope he sucked an egg while we built snowmen this morning, LOL. I was fairly adamant against a north trend, too, but did not expect it to go as south as it did. I was chatting on Facebook with a few guys when that extremely NW GFS rain bomb came in and said "no way, this is the most NW solution we'll see and it'll move back south." I felt the same as you yesterday morning after the 00z NAM/GFS/ECMWF runs. I was actually a little afraid we wouldn't even get that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 GFS advertising some nice upslope/lake effect snows coming this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I actually already started looking into this and I wasn't enthused with Ninos following Nina's. Here's the breakdown and you'll see what I mean: 1951-52: weak nino following weak nina 1957-58: strong nino following a 3 year Nina 1963-64: weak nino following weak nina 1965-66: strong nino following weak/mod nina 1968-69: weak nino following very weak nina 1972-73: strong nino following 2 year nina (2nd year weak) 1976-77: weak nino following 3 year nina (3rd year mod/strong) The list kinda ends there. Haven't had a true nino following a nina since. To expand on the list, here are all the enso neutral years following any nina (single or multi year): 1985-86: neutral following single year weak/mod nina 1989-90: neutral following single year mod/strong nina 1996-97: neutral following the greatest weak nina in dc's history 2001-02: neutral following 3 nina's in a row with the last one being weak 2008-09: neutral following a mod nina These are all the analog years we have to work with unless we have another nina of course but I don't think that's going to happen. If we have a nino next year, 72-73 and 76-77 are probably the best matches but that is just a guess and a guess. We'll see but I kinda hate to say this, odds kinda seem to be stacked against us again next year. That list of neutral winters is pretty abysmal. 72-73 and 76-77 were both wintry in some sense, although not strictly snowy. Maybe we can hope that we are in a long term pattern of quasi-persistent -NAO/-AO and that this year was the exception to that pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I actually already started looking into this and I wasn't enthused with Ninos following Nina's. Here's the breakdown and you'll see what I mean: 1951-52: weak nino following weak nina 1957-58: strong nino following a 3 year Nina 1963-64: weak nino following weak nina 1965-66: strong nino following weak/mod nina 1968-69: weak nino following very weak nina 1972-73: strong nino following 2 year nina (2nd year weak) 1976-77: weak nino following 3 year nina (3rd year mod/strong) Bob, there are some excellent winters in this list, so I'm not so sure why you're not enthused. But from what I know (which isn't a whole lot), we want a west based Nino if we want a lot of cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Bob, there are some excellent winters in this list, so I'm not so sure why you're not enthused. But from what I know (which isn't a whole lot), we want a west based Nino if we want a lot of cold and snow. yeah, I remember Wes saying back in 09/10 that we want the tropical forcing along and just east of the dateline and that CFS SSTA map seemed to focus the most warming right around that spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 well, winter was fun... bring on spring and severe wx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 That list of neutral winters is pretty abysmal. 72-73 and 76-77 were both wintry in some sense, although not strictly snowy. Maybe we can hope that we are in a long term pattern of quasi-persistent -NAO/-AO and that this year was the exception to that pattern. lol- abysmal was the exact same word that came to my mind. ghastly and gruesome work pretty well too. I think the nao was more evil than the ao this year. Statistically, we had our "mini winter" period already. Mid jan-mid feb show a clear -ao / +pna signal. The nao was the total stinker and I think that was at the root of ruining our much antcipated "mini winter" this year. On paper the last 30 days look much better than they turned out to be. Because I seem to have mental issues and can't stop looking at #'s, I already started digging into nao stats because it appears that the nao is the decision maker for our winters while the other teleconnections play supporting roles. We just came out of a 3 year -nao winter regime that ended this year. That's happened more times in the past than we probably realize. I'll post a full analysis at some other time. The 60's were king with (2) 4 year stretches of -nao winters. It appears that all 3 & 4 year stretches of -nao decembers follow 2 years of +nao decembers. The following winter months are mixed though. Haven't found a good pattern in the #'s yet but I will. However, there seems to be a december connection that goes beyond coincidence. If I had to make a total guess at this point, the stats argue for another warm december in 2012. Seems insane to even say such a thing 10 months in advance but once I post the #'s I think there is some merit to the statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 ...what he posted is still bad/untrue information. that's not a set up for snow. Not to mention during the same time frame the Euro shows a SE ridge and basically a torch. Very +AO and NAO....plus I believe the GFS ensembles were even warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Bob, there are some excellent winters in this list, so I'm not so sure why you're not enthused. But from what I know (which isn't a whole lot), we want a west based Nino if we want a lot of cold and snow. Totally agree with there being some good ones on the list. The better fitting analogs were not the good ones. It's all speculation anyway. I'm just having some fun here more than anything. You guys are used to me by now. I'm a #'s guy and all of my lr analysis is strictly #'s driven moreso than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 well, winter was fun... bring on spring and severe wx! first we have to get through the cool/cloudy/rainy march and april we've got on tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 first we have to get through the cool/cloudy/rainy march and april we've got on tap. pffft please - we didn't even have a winter, its been a cold spring... I will lol when we skip a true spring and go right into summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Some grades (feb 19 edition)... DT: Too high, then too low. Average the maps and you're pretty good. C+ JB: Ugly map, not even close in most spots. F+ JBerk: After polling Facebook members... A- (better luck next time but you kept us interested) CWG: People are getting tired of you being right all the time. But you missed on RIC. B Tony Pann: Models wrong, you wrong, everyone wrong. But you're not as big a name as JB. D LC: Did you issue a forecast? I never looked. C McGuirk: You thought it would snow in RIC. B+ Leesburg 04: Hows that 3" my friend? Incomplete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 first we have to get through the cool/cloudy/rainy march and april we've got on tap. It will probably hit 80 in March really early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Some grades (feb 19 edition)... DT: Too high, then too low. Average the maps and you're pretty good. C+ JB: Ugly map, not even close in most spots. F+ JBerk: After polling Facebook members... A- (better luck next time but you kept us interested) CWG: People are getting tired of you being right all the time. But you missed on RIC. B Tony Pann: Models wrong, you wrong, everyone wrong. But you're not as big a name as JB. D LC: Did you issue a forecast? I never looked. C McGuirk: You thought it would snow in RIC. B+ Leesburg 04: Hows that 3" my friend? Incomplete. Adam: A+ (other than his ROA forecast, but he still gets an A+ in my book) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 It will probably hit 80 in March really early. it might.. i know weeklies etc were torchy for early march at some pt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Some grades (feb 19 edition)... DT: Too high, then too low. Average the maps and you're pretty good. C+ JB: Ugly map, not even close in most spots. F+ JBerk: After polling Facebook members... A- (better luck next time but you kept us interested) CWG: People are getting tired of you being right all the time. But you missed on RIC. B Tony Pann: Models wrong, you wrong, everyone wrong. But you're not as big a name as JB. D LC: Did you issue a forecast? I never looked. C McGuirk: You thought it would snow in RIC. B+ Leesburg 04: Hows that 3" my friend? Incomplete. Where's H2O? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Cheers to the Euro for doing very well at the medium range, and the GFS for recovering from the up the coast debacle run to be the first model that nailed the shutout in DC proper. Jeers to the NAM. Even worse than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Some grades (feb 19 edition)... DT: Too high, then too low. Average the maps and you're pretty good. C+ JB: Ugly map, not even close in most spots. F+ JBerk: After polling Facebook members... A- (better luck next time but you kept us interested) CWG: People are getting tired of you being right all the time. But you missed on RIC. B Tony Pann: Models wrong, you wrong, everyone wrong. But you're not as big a name as JB. D LC: Did you issue a forecast? I never looked. C McGuirk: You thought it would snow in RIC. B+ Leesburg 04: Hows that 3" my friend? Incomplete. We don't forecast for Richmond and put no effort into the map down that way. CWG actually got a couple people claiming we hyped the event on oen of Jason's posts after he pretty much said we'd see less than inch and maybe nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Adam: A+ (other than his ROA forecast, but he still gets an A+ in my book) That means I get an A too since he had 1" for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Where's H2O? Its a partial list feel free to fill in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 That means I get an A too since he had 1" for DCA. Ill give you an A. DCA got a T, not quite the "1-2 lock" you forecasted, but wasn't a complete shutout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 We don't forecast for Richmond and put no effort into the map down that way. CWG actually got a couple people claiming we hyped the event on oen of Jason's posts after he pretty much said we'd see less than inch and maybe nothing. Maybe we should put a circle on the map with dragons outside it so people know RIC doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Maybe we should put a circle on the map with dragons outside it so people know RIC doesn't matter. Let me know if you need help with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Ill give you an A. DCA got a T, not quite the "1-2 lock" you forecasted, but wasn't a complete shutout I should not have mini caved 48 hrs out. I was not excpecting the body of the storm to come north but thought we could eke out a slight shift in the final bit. Unfortunately I still am kinda weenie when I think it might actually snow. It was pretty apparant by Sat that was going to be a problem... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I should not have mini caved 48 hrs out. I was not excpecting the body of the storm to come north but thought we could eke out a slight shift in the final bit. Unfortunately I still am kinda weenie when I think it might actually snow. It was pretty apparant by Sat that was going to be a problem... I am pretty sure 90% or so of the posters here all weenied out 48hrs prior, so don't feel too bad. But at least you and Matt got to go chasing and see some good snow, so it wasn't a complete waste of a week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I am pretty sure 90% or so of the posters here all weenied out 48hrs prior, so don't feel too bad. But at least you and Matt got to go chasing and see some good snow, so it wasn't a complete waste of a week! yeah.. was a good time. better than i'd have thought. it's easier finding a large snow band than a tornado, that's for sure. now i just need to convince matt go come to the plains sometime. it was kinda sad leaving the snow and coming home tho heh. i bet it was gorgeous this morning.. my dog would not have been happy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 We don't forecast for Richmond and put no effort into the map down that way. Considering that I'm sure you get quite a number of readers and visitors from south of Fredericksburg and West of Manassas, particularly out towards the Valley, it's a shame you ignore the state south and west of US17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 yeah.. was a good time. better than i'd have thought. it's easier finding a large snow band than a tornado, that's for sure. now i just need to convince matt go come to the plains sometime. it was kinda sad leaving the snow and coming home tho heh. i bet it was gorgeous this morning.. my dog would not have been happy though. It was beautiful this morning. My broccoli and garlic were standing proud against the snow this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Some grades (feb 19 edition)... DT: Too high, then too low. Average the maps and you're pretty good. C+ JB: Ugly map, not even close in most spots. F+ JBerk: After polling Facebook members... A- (better luck next time but you kept us interested) CWG: People are getting tired of you being right all the time. But you missed on RIC. B Tony Pann: Models wrong, you wrong, everyone wrong. But you're not as big a name as JB. D LC: Did you issue a forecast? I never looked. C McGuirk: You thought it would snow in RIC. B+ Leesburg 04: Hows that 3" my friend? Incomplete. Lol....give me credit for never waffling at least....I will gladly refund money to anyone who donated to my trust fund Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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