H2O Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Ian and I are chasing....leaving at 2:30...any suggestions on route, elevation?, etc would be appreciate...not sure if we will go south or more southwest I'd head out I-66 to Rt 29 south and just keep driving until you get into the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 WinterWxLuvr will be less happy tomorrow morning than he was this morning. At least it will be consistent with south trend he was on top of from Fri night on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I like the fact that he doesn't give up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Ian and I are chasing....leaving at 2:30...any suggestions on route, elevation?, etc would be appreciate...not sure if we will go south or more southwest Snow falling up I 81 already about 20 miles south of Staunton (SHD). Either take andys suggestion or I 66 W to I 81 South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Ian and I are chasing....leaving at 2:30...any suggestions on route, elevation?, etc would be appreciate...not sure if we will go south or more southwest I'd head out I-66 to Rt 29 south and just keep driving until you get into the good stuff. Agree, 29S to Culpepper and then follow the radar from there. edit - plus there's a nice backup on 95 right now near Dale City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Agree, 29S to Culpepper and then follow the radar from there. Good point or 29 to warrenton then take 211 over the top of skyline drive towards Luray and then cross the massanutten range, at least they get some elevation as they cross the skyline drive on 211 and then again on Massanutten mtn range on 211 before coming in to New Market. Then take 81S towards SHD or 81 N back home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Light snows now breaking out in Raphine, VA, exit 205, getting closer to Staunton, VA and some flurries in CHO now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Sheer force of will. C'mon baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 this thing is trending north just enough at the last minute...radar filling in a bit in west virginia...it might be a close call, but i think dc may get in on some action later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Sheer force of will. C'mon baby. Please verify.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Please verify.... Better to use the 1km reflectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Thanks. I like the idea of culpeper and then maneuvering from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 An epic week of lurkerdom... I'm glad there's a DC delegation heading to the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 this thing is trending north just enough at the last minute...radar filling in a bit in west virginia...it might be a close call, but i think dc may get in on some action later... Not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Thanks. I like the idea of culpeper and then maneuvering from there I like Staunton. You can catch a very nice cocktail and meal there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I think elevation may take too long and I don't think we need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Better to use the 1km reflectivity. Ok. It gets soooooooo close I can taste it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I think elevation may take too long and I don't think we need it. just a shot in the dark...but i'd target in a line from Fredericksburg to Charlottesville to Culpepper...good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I think elevation may take too long and I don't think we need it. upside is not huge.. if we can get into heavy snow for 2-3 hr it should be OK at least. heading culpeper way seems like a decent plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Ok. It gets soooooooo close I can taste it..... LOL 40 dbz right over DT's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 too bad it will be dark for the best if there is a best. im bringing my tripod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 im going to feel stupid when we end up seeing 1/2" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Every recent forecast is "the worse performance by the models. The global models are scoring at nearly their all time highs in terms of quantitative metrics (I think scores were slightly higher last winter, because things were easier to forecast climatalogically speaking. Just to put it out there, here is some verification valid today from the global models. 5 Day forecast for 1000mb heights. and 5 day forecast aloft (500 mb); Interesting read...thanks! My post was completely in jest - I respect the work you guys do at NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 If I can get a 1/2" in Fred, it will bring my snow totals up to over an inch on this snow year Comon HRRR, CRAS and RUC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 im going to feel stupid when we end up seeing 1/2" of snow We're going to do better than that. Lol. The key is getting into + SN. Might only be 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Not holding my breath. neither am i, but i think it's gonna be closer than models showed last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 We're going to do better than that. Lol. The key is getting into + SN. Might only be 2-4" I hope your'e not talking about here and are talking about a chase. I'd head for CHO if you're going that route. Of course you can hope the RUC is right and only drive a few miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I think elevation may take too long and I don't think we need it. Ground is whitened already in Waynesboro/Fishersville/Staunton now. Basically I 64 is the line now near SHD. Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 im going to feel stupid when we end up seeing 1/2" of snow Just think how many hours people wasted tracking this storm and will get nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I hope your'e not talking about here and are talking about a chase. I'd head for CHO if you're going that route. Of course you can hope the RUC is right and only drive a few miles south. We are leaving in a few to head SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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