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2012 Winter Banter Thread #3


yoda

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Smells like a January 24th, 2000 redux, I'm not joking around either unless all of that precip is virga. DC is already in light returns...

Not trying to be a downer or anything but I think you'll be surprised how quickly this thing wraps up and turns due E or ENE. Short range meso depictions have the ULL taking over within the next hour or two and scooting offshore.

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Smells like a January 24th, 2000 redux, I'm not joking around either unless all of that precip is virga. DC is already in light returns...

It is all virga until down south of Dale City. Remember, LWX's radar is down, so the other WSR-88Ds that comprise the composite will be way up into the cloud. TDWRs are the way to go.

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We are on route 3 near Lake of the woods. Steady snow. Big flakes. Around 35. Not sticking yet. Any suggestions/advice welcome.

If you head southwest towards Gordonsville, there should be a heavier band moving through in about 30-40 minutes, should put down some accumulations and some large flakes. But there will be some clearing first so if you go there and the snow stops or becomes lighter don't think that it is over or I led you to the wrong place....

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We are on route 3 near Lake of the woods. Steady snow. Big flakes. Around 35. Not sticking yet. Any suggestions/advice welcome.

The Lynchburg/Roanoke/Blacksburg stuff is the main game, as far as I can tell. You might as well get a little further south if you guys aren't concerned about wasting too much time/gas on this trip. Maybe Mineral/Lake Anna. The RUC and HRRR both insist on this band becoming more easterly moving as the day goes on.

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The Lynchburg/Roanoke/Blacksburg stuff is the main game, as far as I can tell. You might as well get a little further south if you guys aren't concerned about wasting too much time/gas on this trip. Maybe Mineral/Lake Anna. The RUC and HRRR both insist on this band becoming more easterly moving as the day goes on.

Yup. get anywhere between Charlottesville and Lynchburg.

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post-120-0-82835500-1329694326.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0136

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0502 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...PORTIONS OF FAR NERN NC

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 192302Z - 200200Z

SNOWFALL RATES FROM 1-2 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER

PORTIONS OF SERN VA AND FAR NERN NC. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS FORECAST

TO OCCUR BETWEEN 00-03Z...AND THEN QUICKLY SUBSIDE BY 03-06Z.

PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY

MOVING ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS...AND WILL EXIT OFF THE VA/NC

COAST BY 06Z. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE

RESIDES OFF THE NC/SC COASTLINE...AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEWD TO A

LOCATION OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS BETWEEN 03-06Z. AS THIS

OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK FROM NELY TO NLY OVER

PORTIONS OF FAR NERN NC AND SERN VA. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO

INDICATES AN E-W ORIENTED ZONE OF 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS BECOMING

POSITIONED FROM CNTRL VA INTO SERN MD DURING THE EVENING. STRONG

ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTOGENESIS COMBINED WITH LARGE-SCALE

UVV/S ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT

DYNAMIC COOLING FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY

00-03Z...WITH WARM NELY ONSHORE FLOW BECOMING LESS OF A FACTOR AS

WINDS BACK TO NLY. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SATURATED ISOTHERMAL

PROFILES FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB DEPICTED IN MODEL FORECAST

SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUSLY

MENTIONED FORCING MECHANISMS...SNOWFALL RATES MAY APPROACH 1-2 IN/HR

DURING THE EVENING/EARLY NIGHT.

..GARNER.. 02/19/2012

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...

LAT...LON 36247791 36927820 37817801 38167739 38027663 37067626

36597637 36277702 36247791

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