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2012 Winter Banter Thread #3


yoda

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I dream of a day when models will handle convective feedback, hydrostatic imbalance, DMC, advective processes across the warm sector, and phase speeds aloft, as well as me!!!

Now let the comments on the quality of my posts and how often I should post begin.

If you forecast 0.00 for every day from Dec 1 to Mar 10, 100 days, every year you'll be right 90-95% of the time.

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anyway...i think we get one storm that winter thats more than a dusting. Maybe its a march clipper or superstorm or something. It could be a book end winter with a snow in October and in Mid March

lets see what the gfs says tonight! Time to look for something new to track

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im not sure what you expect.. jb (the big one) is a second rate has been. lc is a never was. dt is megalomaniacal and chock full of hubris. i don't even need to go there with accuweather.

I agree with you on all points except one, i honestly think JB knows what he is talking about. I think he just overhypes and over forecasts all east coast storms to up his 17 dollar a month base.

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If you forecast 0.00 for every day from Dec 1 to Mar 10, 100 days, every year you'll be right 90-95% of the time.

Ah you figured out my secret. This is actually how I forecasted this storm back in November. I would have quoted that post but I didn't want offend the NAM too much and I was also too lazy to dig through old threads and find it.

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i dunno pann really.. berk is actually a really cool guy and really nice. he's not the first i'll look to for a snowcast but he is apparently pretty good overall and he is excellent at the communication angle so i think he'll move on nicely but hopefully make less snow maps once he does.

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Just got home and looking at the latest info very little snow for anyone wow! even the people that thought they would get it in the south. The people that do see flakes falling most likely wont see accumulations with the warm ground temps and the fast movement. Bring on spring and golf.

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i started a new job this week and I never managed more than 4-5 hours of sleep and I was late every single day except the 1st day....I told ravensrule on Sunday I wouldnt be up for the euro this week because of my new job and not only didn't I miss a single run...I stayed up for the 6z NAM 4 out of 5 nights...

Dude you need a Models Anonymous Group I think....

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i started a new job this week and I never managed more than 4-5 hours of sleep and I was late every single day except the 1st day....I told ravensrule on Sunday I wouldnt be up for the euro this week because of my new job and not only didn't I miss a single run...I stayed up for the 6z NAM 4 out of 5 nights...

You and JI are the two sickest by far and i am a distant second. Even in a bad winter like this i think i have read every single post in every subforum east of the Mississippi.

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i guess i have to see the euro now. if it doesnt budge and is close im pretty sure i wont look at any other models all winter. though .15 might be rain/snow mix here.

one thing this storm taught me is that dt does not hug the euro as much as you'd think. either that or he's just been loading an old cached version nonstop.

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C'mon Randy. Perhaps "child like" had the wrong connotation. I only meant that I like to see adults lose their hardened veneer and act excited over snow. I hope you end up getting a decent snowfall. I'm hoping to get 2-4, maybe 5" tonight from the NS system and, though I see snow frequently even that little bit get me psyched too. You and your crew don't like me, that's cool. It doesn't mean that I feel that way about you guys. You're just over sensitive.lol

How did that turn out for you tonight?

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