Srain Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The most important run in the history of the 2012 GFS is about to run. I can't stand the suspense. It's like holding a letter in your hand from the irs after cheating on your taxes. You have to open it but what's inside may make you cry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Shame on us for posting too much on a weather forum! yea no shi*. and now we have to analyze the threads/posts... what the hell is wrong with people? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 The most important run in the history of the 2012 GFS is about to run. I can't stand the suspense. It's like holding a letter in your hand from the irs after cheating on your taxes. You have to open it but what's inside may make you cry. It starts out well... but as soon as you read the 2nd paragraph... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 At least you are consistent, if the Euro shows nothing you tell us give it up. I kinda respect you for that, although not that much . well, it's not really that simple but the euro does kick most other models arses usually. but at this range it sure as hell could be wrong. im past the days where i need to be the first to call for a snowstorm a week out to be able to go back and point out that i did.. not to mention 9 out of 10 times you look like a dope doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 It starts out well... but as soon as you read the 2nd paragraph... lol- more like everything after Dear Mr. Chill, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 5 pages in less than a day talking about a low probability event that's more than two days away from even being sampled decently. And the banter thread is even longer... This is the banter thread! This is getting old...chill out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I have every intention of posting the sh!t out of this thread. Gonna use it as a pressure valve to NOT post crap in the model thread. Anyone who has a pay as you go or limited data plan should put me on ignore immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 ellinwood is pretty much right but obviously it's not going to be well received Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 ellinwood is pretty much right but obviously it's not going to be well received He may be right but then it takes 95% of the fun out of being here. Except for model run time what are we supposed to do for the other 18 hours sit on our hands and watch his punt formation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 ellinwood is pretty much right but obviously it's not going to be well received That's why this is called the winter BANTER thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I have every intention of posting the sh!t out of this thread. Gonna use it as a pressure valve to NOT post crap in the model thread. Anyone who has a pay as you go or limited data plan should put me on ignore immediately. The point of the banter thread is to post worthless crap here and not in the discussion thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 ellinwood is pretty much right but obviously it's not going to be well received I guess I don't understand his point because he basically just told us we are posting too much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 ellinwood is pretty much right but obviously it's not going to be well received Look in model thread, ok, he is right, but the banter thread! Complaining the banter thread is 5 page is as bad, if not worse, than weenies posting crap in the model threads. This is two days he has made comments about people posting in the banter thread. Give me a break. I thought this was a community and all are welcome as long as they don't get extreme. Maybe I am in the wrong neighborhood... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 He may be right but then it takes 95% of the fun out of being here. Except for model run time what are we supposed to do for the other 18 hours sit on our hands and watch his punt formation. i know.. i don't tell people how to post unless it's blatently obvious they are a problem, even if i dislike half of the posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Look in model thread, ok, he is right, but the banter thread! Complaining the banter thread is 5 page is as bad, if not worse, than weenies posting crap in the model threads. This is two days he has made comments about people posting in the banter thread. Give me a break. I thought this was a community and all are welcome as long as they don't get extreme. Maybe I am in the wrong neighborhood... i actually like the banter thread being totally free flowing. plus i dont have to read about nam extrapolation as much. i may stay here for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 i know.. i don't tell people how to post unless it's blatently obvious they are a problem, even if i dislike half of the posts. ellinwood is an OCD control freak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Look in model thread, ok, he is right, but the banter thread! Complaining the banter thread is 5 page is as bad, if not worse, than weenies posting crap in the model threads. This is two days he has made comments about people posting in the banter thread. Give me a break. I thought this was a community and all are welcome as long as they don't get extreme. Maybe I am in the wrong neighborhood... + 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The point of the banter thread is to post worthless crap here and not in the discussion thread. Precisely. Anyone coming in here expecting the glean something of value is clearly misdirected. I'm going to refrain as much as possible from the model thread because I honestly have quite a bit of doubt about the weekend event and it's really too early in the game to assume the models really have a good handle on fast moving and subtle features. The only thing the euro is really showing is the fact that a split flow can join forces and give us a storm. The problem with that (as we all have learned way to many times around here) is that the margin for error is very unforgiving. I'm rooting by brains out for the euro but it would be setting myself up for failure if I bought it hook line and sinker. I was pretty stoked that HM dropped in last night though...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Precisely. Anyone coming in here expecting the glean something of value is clearly misdirected. I'm going to refrain as much as possible from the model thread because I honestly have quite a bit of doubt about the weekend event and it's really too early in the game to assume the models really have a good handle on fast moving and subtle features. The only thing the euro is really showing is the fact that a split flow can join forces and give us a storm. The problem with that (as we all have learned way to many times around here) is that the margin for error is very unforgiving. I'm rooting by brains out for the euro but it would be setting myself up for failure if I bought it hook line and sinker. I was pretty stoked that HM dropped in last night though...... Indeed - plus I have to see if I can beat my post count from the last banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Precisely. Anyone coming in here expecting the glean something of value is clearly misdirected. I'm going to refrain as much as possible from the model thread because I honestly have quite a bit of doubt about the weekend event and it's really too early in the game to assume the models really have a good handle on fast moving and subtle features. The only thing the euro is really showing is the fact that a split flow can join forces and give us a storm. The problem with that (as we all have learned way to many times around here) is that the margin for error is very unforgiving. I'm rooting by brains out for the euro but it would be setting myself up for failure if I bought it hook line and sinker. I was pretty stoked that HM dropped in last night though...... Alway a good sign when you want a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 5 pages in less than a day talking about a low probability event that's more than two days away from even being sampled decently. And the banter thread is even longer... ellinwood is pretty much right but obviously it's not going to be well received your right he might be right now that i look at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 your right he might be right now that i look at it LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 i actually like the banter thread being totally free flowing. plus i dont have to read about nam extrapolation as much. i may stay here for the storm. So no plans for heading to Maine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 your right he might be right now that i look at it I so kicked Ian's butt in the last banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 your right he might be right now that i look at it he's going to have to make a complete 180 and start berating himself...i hope he's close to a mirror. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 your right he might be right now that i look at it good thing im an admin or more of my posts might be deleted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 i was made for twitter. i think in short bursts of elegant thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Wow is this a good explanation, i hope and pray he is right: While the general pattern is favorable for a mid-atlantic snowstorm (Southern Greenland Blocking / Slit Flow) there are a lot of s/w in play here and thats is going to significantly increase the uncertainty. With this caveat in mind, we are going to see huge short term changes in the storm track and intensity for the next 2-3 days before the solutions converge. However, I think the GFS has an increased probability to be wrong with the current storm evolution, mainly because it won't be able to properly handle the smaller scale features that will be pivotal to the following storms evolution. This doesn't only have to do with the GFS's poorer resolution in comparison to the ECMWF. The GFS also uses the leapfrog time step algorithm. This is important, because the main fallacy with the algorithm is that unless diffusion is applied for the first few time steps to dampen the higher frequency signals (smaller scale waves such as small shortwaves), the model will amplify features too quickly and cause the model to blow up or crash. While all models do apply some form of diffusion to handle poorly resolved waves, using this diffusion in tandem with the leapfrog method also sacrifices overall accuracy. My hunch is based on this knowledge. The GFS will tend to handle the overall pattern along with larger waves well, but its the small features (like what the ECMWF has been showing that will interact with the southern stream shortwave) that will make all the difference. If the GFS may not be able to model these waves to the same degree of accuracy as the ECMWF, then it makes more sense to believe a model that tends to have the higher accuracy. Another thing worth mentioning is that in general, models are generally too slow with the forward propagation of waves, which is why we so often see solutions bust on the slow side, even in the short term forecast. That is another thing that should be in the back of many peoples minds when trying to forecast shortwave evolution. Of course none of this means that we will see a huge snowstorm or even a storm at all. Its just in the overall scheme of things, the ECWMF will tend to have better resolved shortwave features in comparison to the GFS based on more than just higher resolution, and that the models as a whole tend to move waves too slowly (by a very small magnitude, but this can be amplified over time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 he's going to have to make a complete 180 and start berating himself...i hope he's close to a mirror. who am i berating? ill give you a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 good thing im an admin or more of my posts might be deleted I'll never forget this horrendous treason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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