MJB Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 epic fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Someone needs to take the NAM out back and shoot it NCEP should remove it from their site. It does not not serves any useful national weenie interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 epic fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Berk is in trouble.. His fans might have to give him an A- Maybe he thinks he is the Trump of mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The NAM has its places, but this is obviously not one of them...it usually excels in deep convective lows in the winter where the dynamics are wrapped up tight...not in a strung out system like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Thoughts and prayers to my southern friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 That berk guy is on my clown list now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The NAM has its places, but this is obviously not one of them...it usually excels in deep convective lows in the winter where the dynamics are wrapped up tight...not in a strung out system like this. so it excels once a year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The NAM has its places, but this is obviously not one of them...it usually excels in deep convective lows in the winter where the dynamics are wrapped up tight...not in a strung out system like this. See zwyts statement in model thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 That berk guy is on my clown list now You obviously have not been here long, he has been on the clown list for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 so it excels once a year? Sorta like the JMA JI except that excels every 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 so it excels once a year? Its a strange model but can be pretty good at times...but it needs a certain set of variables that aren't always apparent early on...usually I noticed in systems where hydrostatic approximation is not a good idea is where the NAM succeeds since it is not a hydrostatic model...it simulates the actual convection without hydrostatic assumption. It succeeded in beating the Euro in Jan 12 last year because of this...it also won in Dec 5, 2009 but that system it was less obvious. It wasn't as convective as 1/12/11. It tends to do terrible in systems with a lot of moving pieces far from the center of circulation IMHO. I don't have any stats to prove this, but just anecdotel when thinking about storms it has succeeded in versus its larger failures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 so it excels once a year? It's good for tstorms and underpredicting high temps by 3-5 degrees reliably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Sorta like the JMA JI except that excels every 5 years. the JMA has value. It is good at picking up big storms before other models. Obviously, short range...it has some major biases like being too wet and north and strong with systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Well, moving forward to the next model run that will tell us we will get no snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 So do people think the Nam Fails or the storm Fails. You know, the NAM could be right. I said yesterday I think if it ends a total dud in DC, it could just easily end up a dud everywhere. Anyone think this just sort of ends up as a big ole' nothing, except maybe a thin strip of non-accumulating snow on the NC/SC NC/VA border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 the JMA has value. It is good at picking up big storms before other models. Obviously, short range...it has some major biases like being too wet and north and strong with systems. But really what value is that, if there is a big storm and you look back and say the JMA had it first. Do you really need to know 7-10 days out that there is a 2% chance of a big storm. I really do not see how the JMA has any real value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 This pattern is so much better than December and January!!! The difference is just astounding in fact it's so astounding I have a hard time believing it exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 So do people think the Nam Fails or the storm Fails. You know, the NAM could be right. I said yesterday I think if it ends a total dud in DC, it could just easily end up a dud everywhere. Anyone think this just sort of ends up as a big ole' nothing, except maybe a thin strip of non-accumulating snow on the NC/SC NC/VA border? Is DC the only place where it can snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 But really what value is that, if there is a big storm and you look back and say the JMA had it first. Do you really need to know 7-10 days out that there is a 2% chance of a big storm. I really do not see how the JMA has any real value. yes...people think your cool if you tell them a storm may be coming 7-10 days out and it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Is DC the only place where it can snow? DC is the only place that it dosent snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 At least death ridges don't cause so much angst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Lol. Anybody needing a bit of comic relief should check out DT's Facebook page. It's melting down worse than the witch in The Wizard of Oz. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Congrats to team no storm....a 98-23 come from behind victory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 http://www.facebook.com/WxRisk?sk=app_208195102528120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 yes...people think your cool if you tell them a storm may be coming 7-10 days out and it happens Yes but if you follow the JMA, you are like the biggest nerd in school who is ridiculed from 1st grade until 12th grade when you get the prom queen for one night. Life sucks for you for 12 years except that one night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Lol. Anybody needing a bit of comic relief should check out DT's Facebook page. It's melting down worse than the witch in The Wizard of Oz. MDstorm The guy who had a total meltdown and posted the picture from a troll's profile was the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 http://www.facebook....208195102528120 It is almost worth it missing the storm, just to read some of those comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The guy who had a total meltdown and posted the picture from a troll's profile was the best It's really rough over there. It makes this board look like the United Nations. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The couple inches I drove through the other day north of Vegas may just turn out to be he most snow I'll see all year. Spring can't come soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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