EastCoast NPZ Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I was out in a t-shirt today and broke a legitimate sweat and I think I even got some sun. I think I'm getting ready to throw in the towel and root for warm. We'll see what the next couple of weeks bring but I'm not going to mind saying goodbye to this winter. This has been the worst threat tracking winter since I joined eastern in 06. At least last winter had some excitement even though we got whiffed alot. I haven't looked forward to spring since I was in high-school; this winter has done it. It's comical that in a consistently warm - if not torch - winter devoid of any legitimate snow chances, the only significant storm looks to hit south of us. Worst winter ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 00z NAM will hold and give us weenie dreams... while 00z GFS will say no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 If that ends up right, i will take your dog for a walk . Another weird post from you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 00z NAM will hold and give us weenie dreams... while 00z GFS will say no "it is the NAM after all" to quote many on this board. I am looking forward to my trace event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I haven't looked forward to spring since I was in high-school; this winter has done it. It's comical that in a consistently warm - if not torch - winter devoid of any legitimate snow chances, the only significant storm looks to hit south of us. Worst winter ever. Not sure if it's the worst (my long term memory isn't what it used to be) but It's a bad one for sure. I hate the long chase for a pattern change too and we suffered.....and suffered....and suffered through basically 2 full months before anything encouraging came along and even then, it's been a flawed pattern. We got spoiled a bit with having back to back -nao winters and it was easy to think "even though it's a nina, we'll still have a -nao/ao to work with". All the calls for a cold december were huge busts. I don't blame anybody though. There was really no way to predict such an anomalous +nao/ao regime. It's been a winter backbreaker for pretty much the entire country. Last year we suffered alone. This year we suffer with pretty much every winter weather fan in the entire US. It is what it is though and I don't think it's bothered me nearly as bad as some. I'm interested in ENSO next year. A couple of signs are pointing towards a nino. Time will tell of course. I do know it that it ends up being another nina (not likely) or neutral (pretty likely) we should have low expectations going in and enjoy any surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Man am I bored. Someone post something somewhere. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Not sure if it's the worst (my long term memory isn't what it used to be) but It's a bad one for sure. I hate the long chase for a pattern change too and we suffered.....and suffered....and suffered through basically 2 full months before anything encouraging came along and even then, it's been a flawed pattern. We got spoiled a bit with having back to back -nao winters and it was easy to think "even though it's a nina, we'll still have a -nao/ao to work with". All the calls for a cold december were huge busts. I don't blame anybody though. There was really no way to predict such an anomalous +nao/ao regime. It's been a winter backbreaker for pretty much the entire country. Last year we suffered alone. This year we suffer with pretty much every winter weather fan in the entire US. It is what it is though and I don't think it's bothered me nearly as bad as some. I'm interested in ENSO next year. A couple of signs are pointing towards a nino. Time will tell of course. I do know it that it ends up being another nina (not likely) or neutral (pretty likely) we should have low expectations going in and enjoy any surprises. In my mind it's worse than 01-02 and 06-07 (hope I got those dates right), as I remember those winters just being super-torchy, and I don't recall much in the way of any snow chances. This year was not as warm as those, and we had several WWA-level, flawed snow events, which got MBY many Ts, and slushy car-toppers. Not once did the ground get completely covered. Included in that was the 6 hours of decent snow on Feb 11 (?) that occurred at the warmest part of the day, and netted us 0.0" of snow. Just a very frustrating winter...and then to be teased (tortured?) with this storm. Regardless of ENSO next year, if we don't get a more favorable NAO/AO regime than it probably won't matter. What are the statistics for nino winters with +AO/NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 meh, the more I look at this radar and see how everything has a near due east component to it, including the stuff in TX, I start looking at the bathroom wondering if there's something to do to pass the time away in fact, there are very, very few surface obs reporting rain outside of states that border the GOM; I like the look of the water vapor, but if I was going on radar only I'd be sweating it http://radar.weather...s/full_loop.php I would be shocked if we ended up with anything more than a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Man am I bored. Someone post something somewhere. Lol. You're in college. I hope you're at least bored whie drinking a beer on a Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 You're in college. I hope you're at least bored whie drinking a beer on a Saturday night. Will be shortly. Suitemates gone for weekend, roomate gone for weekend, in fight with the girl i talk to.... all equals a quiet afternoon.. can't wait to get out of here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Will be shortly. Suitemates gone for weekend, roomate gone for weekend, in fight with the girl i talk to.... all equals a quiet afternoon.. can't wait to get out of here Look on the bright side. At least you don't have to worry about getting snowed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Regardless of ENSO next year, if we don't get a more favorable NAO/AO regimes than it probably won't matter. What are the statistics for nino winters with +AO/NAO? lol- you asked the right person that question. don't have time tonight but I'll go ahead and crunch #'s tomorrow. I did look into nino's after 2nd year ninas a couple of weeks ago and it's kinda bad. I didn't take notes so I don't remember the specifics but there are couple of big snow bust ninos following ninas but don't take much stock in that statement because my research was very brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Man am I bored. Someone post something somewhere. Lol. Wait for another run of another model that will tell us we will get no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Wait for another run of another model that will tell us we will get no snow. I think the NAM is getting ready to do just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Few more runs, and that low is going to be in Savannah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Congratulations, no one . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Probably the worst moment of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Smells like some big time busted forecasts if this holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Probably the worst moment of my life. my heart goes out to you man, we've all been there before NAM can be wrong and you'll see something accumualte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Unless you live in Western NC this is painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 my heart goes out to you man, we've all been there before NAM can be wrong and you'll see something accumualte mitchnick...I said before the run that I wouldn't invoke weenie rule #33 and extrapolate the early frames...I did anyway...luckily hr 27 gives me a little something...we still have the SREFS, RGEM and Euro on our side down here...with this type of pattern I am hoping that still means something...thanks for the well wishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 This model sucks. This is probably a fluke run too. Even dtk can't defend this model What a terrible model The scariest thing about these comments, are that you and JI think alike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Smells like some big time busted forecasts if this holds. it's early, but if i had to make a bet, i would agree. radar really doesn't look good at all right now even for central va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Someone needs to take the NAM out back and shoot it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The scariest thing about these comments, are that you and JI think alike. Ji knows more than he leads on. The JMA stuff is an act.. I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Berk is in trouble.. His fans might have to give him an A- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Ji knows more than he leads on. The JMA stuff is an act.. I think It has to be, no sensible person who follows the weather as long as he has can believe the JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Weenie rule #99: Always keep a good supply of fine bourbon in the liquor cabinet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Berk is in trouble.. His fans might have to give him an A- His problem now is he may be out of a job for a good bit longer unless every model is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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