Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 If he wasn't always snowier than everyone else I'd probably give it more credence tho even then it's optimistic up here at least. You're right fewer ppl will see it than if on TV etc but if on the job hunt being accurate more than hopeful might be a good strategy. I still sorta like 1-2 here but no major confidence in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The only good thing is it looks bleak for BB but then he's not here to troll...oh well. Late March is gonna be rocking. PS. I have no opinion yet past a two weeks. ChrisLs rocking March will happen at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The only good thing is it looks bleak for BB but then he's not here to troll...oh well. Late March is gonna be rocking. PS. I have no opinion yet past a two weeks. If we stay how we've been on temps and with the jet I think we are pretty much toast but maybe its a shorter period of bad and things slow into March.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 If he wasn't always snowier than everyone else I'd probably give it more credence tho even then it's optimistic up here at least. You're right fewer ppl will see it than if on TV etc but if on the job hunt being accurate more than hopeful might be a good strategy. I still sorta like 1-2 here but no major confidence in that. Definitely agree on the job hunt part, and I may be thinking 1-2 for DC as the last minute north trend until game time could apply and some models have the necessary qpf. Also there is that chance of the band on the north end which is something to watch for. Overall, I don't think that has the chance 1/30 had to come north though it's hard to say since we didn't really think it could. Ps SREF now supports you call, .25 if not a bit more for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 If we stay how we've been on temps and with the jet I think we are pretty much toast but maybe its a shorter period of bad and things slow into March.. Depressingly close to the miserable summer weather here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 berk map.. looks like i'll be sledding tomorrow evening That is a JB type of forecast. One of these days he'll nail one and then will be a hero. since there are no verification constraints he can just toss it out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 If he wasn't always snowier than everyone else I'd probably give it more credence tho even then it's optimistic up here at least. You're right fewer ppl will see it than if on TV etc but if on the job hunt being accurate more than hopeful might be a good strategy. I still sorta like 1-2 here but no major confidence in that. I think an interesting area to watch within the DC metro will be around Fredericksburg. For us, 0-1" vs. 1-2" is not a big deal in terms of forecasting.. for the southern parts of DC metro, T-2" vs. 2-4" actually does matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Depressingly close to the miserable summer weather here yeah.. you really lucked out on your first winter here. it's usally at least cold sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I think an interesting area to watch within the DC metro will be around Fredericksburg. For us, 0-1" vs. 1-2" is not a big deal in terms of forecasting.. for the southern parts of DC metro, T-2" vs. 2-4" actually does matter. yeah, that's probably true.. sustained bands might try to setup somewehere to the south. small chance it gets up here too i guess but would not plan on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 yeah.. you really lucked out on your first winter here. it's usally at least cold sometimes. :/ I suppose the only things I have over last summer will be my car with a/c and the experience of already having BWI's hottest day on record... on a conditioning day @4pm in the aftn...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I still like t-2 but in the CWG quote put down 1 to be consistent with our graphic and what Jason said but do think 1 inch is probalby more likely than 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 LWX is in my camp from yday now with 1-2 DC north and 2-4 south which makes me think it's a little high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 LWX is in my camp from yday now with 1-2 DC north and 2-4 south which makes me think it's a little high. Well the NAM still likes you so you still could be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well the NAM still likes you so you still could be right. Not sure I should be happy about that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orangewx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 welcome to the WSWatch Cental VA URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 315 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012 VAZ048-049-060>063-066>071-080-191100- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.120219T1700Z-120220T0900Z/ FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER- LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-DINWIDDIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LOUISA...FARMVILLE...GOOCHLAND... ASHLAND...CREWE...COLONIAL HEIGHTS...RICHMOND 315 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. * AREAS AFFECTED: CENTRAL VIRGINIA * HAZARDS: HEAVY SNOW...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SLEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS COMING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS: ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...CREATING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 LWX is in my camp from yday now with 1-2 DC north and 2-4 south which makes me think it's a little high. I would go with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well the NAM still likes you so you still could be right. NAM sneaks 0.5 QPF into SE FFX... about 25 miles SE of DCA. Prob because of the superband that shows up on sim radar at 30 and 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Not sure I should be happy about that... It has mby in .50. This even does scare me because of the tight gradient. While I think the NAm is probably overdone it spreads the heavier band into the area. Here's a verification, during the past month along the east coast the nam bias for .50 is 2.0 meaning it forecasts twice the amount of .50 inch than actually occurs. The scores (ETS) are considerabley better for the Euro. The bia is a little misleading as the 3 month bias of the NMA isn't nearly as bad. However, the Euro scores for the bigger verification set still are quite a bit higher than the NAMs You gotta play the stats even if sometimes that will burn you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It has mby in .50. This even does scare me because of the tight gradient. While I think the NAm is probably overdone it spreads the heavier band into the area. Here's a verification, during the past month along the east coast the nam bias for .50 is 2.0 meaning it forecasts twice the amount of .50 inch than actually occurs. The scores (ETS) are considerabley better for the Euro. You gotta play the stats even if sometimes that will burn you. Wes, could you explain how this graph works? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 maybe a meteor will hurt earth and change the seasons leaving us in an eternal winter and a never ending pv over our heads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Wes, could you explain how this graph works? The bars are the ETS scores with using the left hand y-axis to tell you how the score, a perfect score is 1.0, a score that doesn't get anything right would be zero. It essentially tellin you how well the model forecast different thresholds of precip, The various colors tell which model you are looking at. The two we're focussing on are the .25 and .50 inch ones. Th colored lines tell you the bias for the different models for different precipitation thresholds, the y-axis on the right hand side tell you teh magnitude of the bias. I bias over 1 means the model has overpredicted that threshold, Bias is simply the number of forecast events divided by how often they were observed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 DT likes the idea of snow reaching DCA and BWI...FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It has mby in .50. This even does scare me because of the tight gradient. While I think the NAm is probably overdone it spreads the heavier band into the area. Here's a verification, during the past month along the east coast the nam bias for .50 is 2.0 meaning it forecasts twice the amount of .50 inch than actually occurs. The scores (ETS) are considerabley better for the Euro. The bia is a little misleading as the 3 month bias of the NMA isn't nearly as bad. However, the Euro scores for the bigger verification set still are quite a bit higher than the NAMs You gotta play the stats even if sometimes that will burn you. Thanks for posting this Wes. Not at all surprising to see the EC score well (though I'm a bit surprised it isn't beating us [by more] for the lightest amounts). All of the bins from 0.5" and greater have far too few cases to say anything meaningful (statistically significant). The bias for the GFS seems higher than I recall seeing in the past, but not surprising nonetheless (our current model has a bit of a "socialist" rain problem). Interesting that the SREF is scoring well (and I've seen this before) for a lot of the thresholds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Thanks for posting this Wes. Not at all surprising to see the EC score well (though I'm a bit surprised it isn't beating us [by more] for the lightest amounts). All of the bins from 0.5" and greater have far too few cases to say anything meaningful (statistically significant). The bias for the GFS seems higher than I recall seeing in the past, but not surprising nonetheless (our current model has a bit of a "socialist" rain problem). Interesting that the SREF is scoring well (and I've seen this before) for a lot of the thresholds. Tru, I thought of that later but I think it holds if you use a bigger data set as I looked at teh 3 month which has a data count of 1400 plus and the 3 month conus. Where the chart I show is misleading is the bias which is much higher than the real bias of the nam. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/rgnscr/m1_48h_rfc.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Thanks for posting this Wes. Not at all surprising to see the EC score well (though I'm a bit surprised it isn't beating us [by more] for the lightest amounts). All of the bins from 0.5" and greater have far too few cases to say anything meaningful (statistically significant). The bias for the GFS seems higher than I recall seeing in the past, but not surprising nonetheless (our current model has a bit of a "socialist" rain problem). Interesting that the SREF is scoring well (and I've seen this before) for a lot of the thresholds. The Sref is pretty good until you get to the highest thresholds where it gets penalized for having a low bias because of the averaging. The real low ones tend to have too high a bias to be a use but otherwise it is worth looking at. LOL, even with the low bias it does well, I should have looked closer instead of relying on memory. I think over the long hall what I said about the sref is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 If he wasn't always snowier than everyone else I'd probably give it more credence tho even then it's optimistic up here at least. You're right fewer ppl will see it than if on TV etc but if on the job hunt being accurate more than hopeful might be a good strategy. I still sorta like 1-2 here but no major confidence in that. at this point my confidence is still very low....if it misses us to the south it might be a good lesson not to assume a north shift....we have just seen it so many times it is almost implicitly expected....usually when we see a shift the models have a better grasp on the system and then they start shifting together....this one is weird as the models dont seem to grasp the system as well even at this point so there is a lot more at play than just model bias....I also think the fact that we are on the edge is highlighting what may be a more common issue.....when Philly or NJ or NYC are the cutoff on a sharp gradient I dont think we are payng too much attention to the north edge because it isnt affecting us....SNE seems to deal with this issue pretty frequently but maybe because they get a lot more systems/snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 DT likes the idea of snow reaching DCA and BWI...FWIW. LC quoted on his page about the nice moisture boost the storm is getting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Interestingly enough if the 18Z NAM were to verify (not saying that it would...) then Berk would seem like a genius for his recent forecast, which came out before this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 at this point my confidence is still very low....if it misses us to the south it might be a good lesson not to assume a north shift....we have just seen it so many times it is almost implicitly expected....usually when we see a shift the models have a better grasp on the system and then they start shifting together....this one is weird as the models dont seem to grasp the system as well even at this point so there is a lot more at play than just model bias....I also think the fact that we are on the edge is highlighting what may be a more common issue.....when Philly or NJ or NYC are the cutoff on a sharp gradient I dont think we are payng too much attention to the north edge because it isnt affecting us....SNE seems to deal with this issue pretty frequently but maybe because they get a lot more systems/snow I believe in the north trend particularly the final 24 hours... Tho I think prior to that it's already shown that's not inevitable. If the NAM verifies it would be considerably more interesting as we have a legit shot at getting into a prolonged band. But we're still about 24 hours from the time that matters and the NAM can still have considerable issues in that zone. The shifts we are looking at are so small to have impact changes I'm not sure how anyone can have a ton of faith in a forecast. It's hard not to feel better about our odds at this point though... I'd still have to cut at least some precip off NAM and am a little skeptical of the little notch of higher totals that manage to near our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 3" IMBY final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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