usedtobe Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The GFS still looks like garbage. The NAM will have to do it alone. It looks worse than the 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Damn... was hoping after a few beers things had improved. Blah Though I do have brine on my roads! Wooohoo I'm saving all my beer for tomorrow to cry in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'm saving all my beer for tomorrow to cry in cry? you will see more snow than I will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Ugly.. LWX curse lives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 We need 50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 GFS sticks to it's convective feedback supressed solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 GFS sticks to it's convective feedback supressed solution. CF issues? Please elaborate. Not being snarky, just wondering what you think you are seeing. The 18Z GFS was just a hair slower, relatively same LP movement but less precip on the northern/western edge of the shield. In the big picture, no real change except skimming .1 or so from us on the north edge. Getting nothing into MD really bothersome. Eh. Will watch radar tomorrow morning to see if anything can get into SE Ohio and western WV before I call it quits. If it can get to that latitude, who knows. It will probably crash and dry up as the low intensifies and moves away anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Stick a fork in this one. 50 miles may as well be the other side of the planet. But I will ride the NAM all the way to the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Is Justin Berk out of Baltimore crazy? https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=386157284743218&set=a.177554638936818.47068.166030800089202&type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 having a real hard tome believing the cold air gets as far south as the models are advertising based on obs and pressure at 6PM and if the cold air doesn't make it as far south, then storm should come further north that's my story and I'm sticking with it because there's nothing to lose and it's a boring Sat. eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 having a real hard tome believing the cold air gets as far south as the models are advertising based on obs and pressure at 6PM and if the cold air doesn't make it as far south, then storm should come further north that's my story and I'm sticking with it because there's nothing to lose and it's a boring Sat. eve. Man it's not very scientific, but I hope to hell you are right! I'm having a hard time finding any features to bring this thing more to the north, but I'm hoping for a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 CF issues? Please elaborate. Not being snarky, just wondering what you think you are seeing. The 18Z GFS was just a hair slower, relatively same LP movement but less precip on the northern/western edge of the shield. In the big picture, no real change except skimming .1 or so from us on the north edge. Getting nothing into MD really bothersome. Eh. Will watch radar tomorrow morning to see if anything can get into SE Ohio and western WV before I call it quits. If it can get to that latitude, who knows. It will probably crash and dry up as the low intensifies and moves away anyway. Us weenies throw out the confective feedback issue anytime the models aren't printing out enough QPF in our backyards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Is Justin Berk out of Baltimore crazy? https://www.facebook...&type=1 Looks like his justification isn't much more than Jan 2010 did it, and my forecast busted, so why can't it happen again? I know personally that if I stare at the WV loop too long I start to see things that aren't there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 lol *** alert ***ATTENTION ALL IN SW VIRGINIA and ROANOKE... this is VERY VERY importnat. The OFFICAL nws forecast for ROA is WINTER STORM WARNING for at least 4 to 8 inches of snow ... You ARE under WINTER STORM WATCH see this link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 It's kinda weird seeing lr model runs with the month starting with 3 now. We're just about there and not much to show for it. South trend killed us this time but we should start praying for a south trend for March 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Have been away from the computer. Seems like we are still hoping for north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 berk map.. looks like i'll be sledding tomorrow evening If that ends up right, i will take your dog for a walk . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I was out in a t-shirt today and broke a legitimate sweat and I think I even got some sun. I think I'm getting ready to throw in the towel and root for warm. We'll see what the next couple of weeks bring but I'm not going to mind saying goodbye to this winter. This has been the worst threat tracking winter since I joined eastern in 06. At least last winter had some excitement even though we got whiffed alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 If that ends up right, i will take your dog for a walk . Sounds like some type of sexual innuendo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Sounds like some type of sexual innuendo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I was out in a t-shirt today and broke a legitimate sweat and I think I even got some sun. I think I'm getting ready to throw in the towel and root for warm. We'll see what the next couple of weeks bring but I'm not going to mind saying goodbye to this winter. This has been the worst threat tracking winter since I joined eastern in 06. At least last winter had some excitement even though we got whiffed alot. snow or sun tomorrow, I have to replace an over the stove microwave....ever do one of them before? I have and it sux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 snow or sun tomorrow, I have to replace an over the stove microwave....ever do one of them before? I have and it sux Can't say I've done that. I replaced a bathroom faucet last week and I wanted to kick something afterwards. Putting the new one in was easy but getting the old one out left me with 3 bleeding knuckles and a broken back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Can't say I've done that. I replaced a bathroom faucet last week and I wanted to kick something afterwards. Putting the new one in was easy but getting the old one out left me with 3 bleeding knuckles and a broken back. whenever I do plumbing, I end up using a lot of one syllable words that look like **** when I try to type them on this Board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 whenever I do plumbing, I end up using a lot of one syllable words that look like **** when I try to type them on this Board Leave that to the experts who know what they are doing. Do something you do know how to do, follow the weather. I know if you turn suicidal then we have no chance at even a flurry. So i look to your mood to see if we are getting any snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Leave that to the experts who know what they are doing. Do something you do know how to do, follow the weather. I know if you turn suicidal then we have no chance at even a flurry. So i look to your mood to see if we are getting any snow . meh, the more I look at this radar and see how everything has a near due east component to it, including the stuff in TX, I start looking at the bathroom wondering if there's something to do to pass the time away in fact, there are very, very few surface obs reporting rain outside of states that border the GOM; I like the look of the water vapor, but if I was going on radar only I'd be sweating it http://radar.weather...s/full_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I was out in a t-shirt today and broke a legitimate sweat and I think I even got some sun. I think I'm getting ready to throw in the towel and root for warm. We'll see what the next couple of weeks bring but I'm not going to mind saying goodbye to this winter. This has been the worst threat tracking winter since I joined eastern in 06. At least last winter had some excitement even though we got whiffed alot. I haven't looked forward to spring since I was in high-school; this winter has done it. It's comical that in a consistently warm - if not torch - winter devoid of any legitimate snow chances, the only significant storm looks to hit south of us. Worst winter ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 00z NAM will hold and give us weenie dreams... while 00z GFS will say no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 If that ends up right, i will take your dog for a walk . Another weird post from you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 00z NAM will hold and give us weenie dreams... while 00z GFS will say no "it is the NAM after all" to quote many on this board. I am looking forward to my trace event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I haven't looked forward to spring since I was in high-school; this winter has done it. It's comical that in a consistently warm - if not torch - winter devoid of any legitimate snow chances, the only significant storm looks to hit south of us. Worst winter ever. Not sure if it's the worst (my long term memory isn't what it used to be) but It's a bad one for sure. I hate the long chase for a pattern change too and we suffered.....and suffered....and suffered through basically 2 full months before anything encouraging came along and even then, it's been a flawed pattern. We got spoiled a bit with having back to back -nao winters and it was easy to think "even though it's a nina, we'll still have a -nao/ao to work with". All the calls for a cold december were huge busts. I don't blame anybody though. There was really no way to predict such an anomalous +nao/ao regime. It's been a winter backbreaker for pretty much the entire country. Last year we suffered alone. This year we suffer with pretty much every winter weather fan in the entire US. It is what it is though and I don't think it's bothered me nearly as bad as some. I'm interested in ENSO next year. A couple of signs are pointing towards a nino. Time will tell of course. I do know it that it ends up being another nina (not likely) or neutral (pretty likely) we should have low expectations going in and enjoy any surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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