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2012 Winter Banter Thread #3


yoda

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oops, my apologies to Mr. Pann; I don't know why I thought otherwise except I must have confused him w/somebody on the local channels that doesn't (until recently, most on the local tv didn't have met degrees)

I still think his call is bullish based on existing guidance, not that I want him to be wrong of course

3-6" for BWI? I think thats more than a little bullish if you ask me lol

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Interesting how the water vapor loop shows a dry "line" of seemingly the southern limit of the northern stream

my weenie mind is hoping that represents the snow line (assuming, of course, it doesn't drift south)

does look like moisture from the southern stream is already feeding north of it

http://www.ssd.noaa....s/flash-wv.html

Mitch, that is where the confluence is, and if the only problem here was that the storm was running into that you would be right...and the snow would probably make it to about that line. However, there is much more wrong with this now then just that. The storm looks healthy for a time as the initial gulf low development moves north with ample moisture. This is mostly a southern branch feature...but everything becomes a train wreck as it goes through the energy transfer to the baroclinic zone along the coast and begins to interact (badly I might add) with the northern branch. Its during this period where it all falls apart. The mechanisms for lift get pulled out from under the system and it doesn't recover until too late for our area. If you want a great representation of this look at this sim radar loop and what happens from hour 36 to 42.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F18%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&pdesc=&model=HRW-NMM-EUS&area=EUS&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=Eastern+United+States&prevArea=EUS&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

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I've said it before, I'll say it again, in the famous words of Clark Griswold, "getting there is half the fun"

then again, the difference in this hobby is sometimes all you have is travel time and never make it to your destination :(

I can't disagree with the fun of following a storm as it unfolds. Hell...enough folks around here already look to the next threat (or season) when the snow from one storm is winding down!

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Mitch, that is where the confluence is, and if the only problem here was that the storm was running into that you would be right...and the snow would probably make it to about that line. However, there is much more wrong with this now then just that. The storm looks healthy for a time as the initial gulf low development moves north with ample moisture. This is mostly a southern branch feature...but everything becomes a train wreck as it goes through the energy transfer to the baroclinic zone along the coast and begins to interact (badly I might add) with the northern branch. Its during this period where it all falls apart. The mechanisms for lift get pulled out from under the system and it doesn't recover until too late for our area. If you want a great representation of this look at this sim radar loop and what happens from hour 36 to 42.

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

nah, I understand, I'm just hoping that the short wave in southern NE can yank that sob down south further north and put us in the place of Central VA as they look now on the models

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nah, I understand, I'm just hoping that the short wave in southern NE can yank that sob down south further north and put us in the place of Central VA as they look now on the models

Honestly, I am not so sure central VA will even do so well in this setup because of the problems I mentioned. Its almost like a miller b type problem for them too...I know some models still put out big liquid numbers for Richmond, and its very possible thats correct...but I would be nervous if I was there that a lot of the heavier bands fall apart right at the worst time. The CCB really doesnt get cranking with the coastal low until it may be too late for much of anyone. The initial slug of gulf moisture going up the apps is going to put down a nice thump snow...not sure if the coastal will do much of anything. I want to hold out some hope that perhaps there is a more smooth transition, or maybe if the initial low holds on longer it forces a better transfer further north...etc...but I see nothing to believe that. However, weather is a humbling thing and amazes me constantly so anything is possible.

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Honestly, I am not so sure central VA will even do so well in this setup because of the problems I mentioned. Its almost like a miller b type problem for them too...I know some models still put out big liquid numbers for Richmond, and its very possible thats correct...but I would be nervous if I was there that a lot of the heavier bands fall apart right at the worst time. The CCB really doesnt get cranking with the coastal low until it may be too late for much of anyone. The initial slug of gulf moisture going up the apps is going to put down a nice thump snow...not sure if the coastal will do much of anything. I want to hold out some hope that perhaps there is a more smooth transition, or maybe if the initial low holds on longer it forces a better transfer further north...etc...but I see nothing to believe that. However, weather is a humbling thing and amazes me constantly so anything is possible.

Interesting you should say that. There was plenty of discussion a couple days ago about this being a Miller A v Miller B, and it seems it's a bit of a hybrid instead.

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Interesting you should say that. There was plenty of discussion a couple days ago about this being a Miller A v Miller B, and it seems it's a bit of a hybrid instead.

Not sure I want to touch that argument as people on here seem to get all riled up over it and I have always thought it a bit silly. When you say miller b most think of a northern branch clipper type system that transfers energy to the coast and bombs out...this has no similarity to that. However many include southern branch systems that take an initial inland track and then transfer in the miller b discussion also. Then others argue over if something is miller a or b depending on how a transfer takes place and its stupid because every low jumps and transfers energy in some way. Low pressure systems do not have a smooth movement like a solid physical entity would. They jump along in their track on a path of least resistance. When a jump or transfer of energy becomes great enough to then classify a low as miller b versus a holds no interest to me as these are all just made up classifications we have given to atmospheric phenomenon so that we can better categorize them and compartmentalize them in our minds. In a nutshell I find it all a bit subjective.

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Not sure I want to touch that argument as people on here seem to get all riled up over it and I have always thought it a bit silly. When you say miller b most think of a northern branch clipper type system that transfers energy to the coast and bombs out...this has no similarity to that. However many include southern branch systems that take an initial inland track and then transfer in the miller b discussion also. Then others argue over if something is miller a or b depending on how a transfer takes place and its stupid because every low jumps and transfers energy in some way. Low pressure systems do not have a smooth movement like a solid physical entity would. They jump along in their track on a path of least resistance. When a jump or transfer of energy becomes great enough to then classify a low as miller b versus a holds no interest to me as these are all just made up classifications we have given to atmospheric phenomenon so that we can better categorize them and compartmentalize them in our minds. In a nutshell I find it all a bit subjective.

Thanks for the breakdown, psu. Well said.

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its going to be painful for some tomorrow to watch the heavy precip moving into WV aimed right at us, get all excited, only to see it wither and fall apart as the energy shifts to the coastal front shutting off the mechanism for the precip. All of the models now indicate that this whole system really falls apart as the transfer takes place since there is not much northern stream interaction and not a lot of cold air so not even much mechanism for lift or dynamics once the energy jumps to the coast. Sad sad sad

Thats why I am glad LWX is down. It won't show our 12 HRS of virga.

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Looks like all hopes are lost related to a realistic hope for a storm that delivers plowable to BWI/DCA... All that is left is nowcasting... I'll be staring at radar and wv loop lol admittedly. This will likely be our last chance at a snowstorm this winter.

we might find another window somewhere but the next two weeks don't look pretty and then we're on serious borrowed time in the coastal plain

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Looks like all hopes are lost related to a realistic hope for a storm that delivers plowable to BWI/DCA... All that is left is nowcasting... I'll be staring at radar and wv loop lol admittedly. This will likely be our last chance at a snowstorm this winter.

I wonder how sharp the cut off will be or just where it will stop its northward progress..I am just east of Warrenton and you north side of Balt....literally a 20 mile shift either way would be huge

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Interesting post by Justin Berk, who I follow on Facebook. He has a very valid point that the surface observations will be much more important than than the model runs now because of the poor performance of the models with the storms so far this year and the very close range of the storm. The GFS which has been very in the middle of the consensus is not correct even at this short time after running. In fact, this very closely resembles the NAM of 12Z yesterday in terms of the location of the precipitation and the pressure systems.421982_10150609330088476_54875673475_9041066_1112992182_n.jpg

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Interesting post by Justin Berk, who I follow on Facebook. He has a very valid point that the surface observations will be much more important than than the model runs now because of the poor performance of the models with the storms so far this year and the very close range of the storm. The GFS which has been very in the middle of the consensus is not correct even at this short time after running. In fact, this very closely resembles the NAM of 12Z yesterday in terms of the location of the precipitation and the pressure systems.421982_10150609330088476_54875673475_9041066_1112992182_n.jpg

He makes so good points. You know in the end the models are just data processors with some better than others but none perfect. For margin of error statistically, 50 miles is not huge but in this case it means a huge difference. Be fun to watch it play out. I'm sure the Euro will prevail but who knows...at some point it is mother natures call

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Interesting post by Justin Berk, who I follow on Facebook. He has a very valid point that the surface observations will be much more important than than the model runs now because of the poor performance of the models with the storms so far this year and the very close range of the storm. The GFS which has been very in the middle of the consensus is not correct even at this short time after running. In fact, this very closely resembles the NAM of 12Z yesterday in terms of the location of the precipitation and the pressure systems.421982_10150609330088476_54875673475_9041066_1112992182_n.jpg

Radar shows Has already died down. Blob headed east through the MS coast and is in prime position to rob the warm sector. Not buying any of the Justin Burk BS after all his initials are JB.

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It's sometimes chic to act like people forecast without a like 90% bias to the models. It's a good way to find hope too I guess. I think he was first out with that argument last weekend too.

Put a percentage on the chance that Berk is even remotely correct, because I know now he doesn't have to put that forecast on TV and even when he's wrong as Mark (ellinwood) stated, they act like he did well. IMHO, he has a 5% chance of being right, PSUhoffman 95% as he doesn't take one frame of a radar image and interpret the whole forecast from it. The synoptic set up that was favorable for us was lot when the northern stream interaction like we had before was lost. There are always ways in which you could pull out certain things that a model is not going to perfect. Sure sometimes that works, and the storm could pull off a 1/30/10 but the chances are low, especially considering it wanted to snow that winter and we were in an el niño where the north trend had a much better trend. I think it'll edge north til game time, but the confluence would have to be less than modeled with a later transfer. Sorry Justin, I ain't buyin it.

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we might find another window somewhere but the next two weeks don't look pretty and then we're on serious borrowed time in the coastal plain

The only good thing is it looks bleak for BB but then he's not here to troll...oh well. Late March is gonna be rocking.

PS. I have no opinion yet past a two weeks.

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