JamieOber Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 yawn.. i know snow is the most important thing to you so i dont ever expect you to act like a friend here. plus you have everyone on your side anyway.. hopefully we back into a 2-4" that happens completely different than your crystal ball saw a week ago. at least the range will be good and that's all that matter.s Those who are level-headed, they've been smart. But I agree, letting model runs jerk emotions up and down IS strange and not good. I mean, why let a hobby shake you up that much, you know? That sort of thing is as old as ne.weather of course; probably isn't going to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinsdomination09 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 time to throw out a pretty statistic. not trying to be a weenie or give a stupid post but this offered a little comfort to me. (all winters with less than 5 inches at BWI and then the following winter) 1889-1890 .4.9 - 35.9 1918-1919 4.0 - 14.9 1931-1932 4.2 - 27.9 1949-1950 .7 - 6.2 1959 -1960 4.0 - 34.1 1972 -1973 1.2 - 17.1 1980 -1981 4.6 - 25.5 1991-1992 4.1 - 24.4 1997-1998 3.2 - 15.2 2001-2002 2.3 - 58.1 Avg 3.32 - 25.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Those who are level-headed, they've been smart. But I agree, letting model runs jerk emotions up and down IS strange and not good. I mean, why let a hobby shake you up that much, you know? That sort of thing is as old as ne.weather of course; probably isn't going to change. it's hard to look at a model, even the nam, that dumps snow on you and say "unimportant" .. and im sure i've gotten wrapped up in the wrong solution before because i wanted snow. the thing that bothers me is some of the "hopeful" are also really smart it's just harder to tell sometimes when it comes to snow talk. i guess in the end it should not bother me at all. im glad to except some fault.. always have been. even ppl we've never met in person on here we've been conversing with yrs in many cases.. i think people don't give eachother enough credit when it comes to "knowing" someone through interaction online -- which im sure you agree given past discussions on the online v offline self. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 new gfs mos has 60 for iad tomorrow lookin' pretty good so far here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 lookin' pretty good so far here. yeah, I mentioned last night that if the drier model progs verified, people down south are going to be disappointed (outside the mts) place for this one seems to be at Big Meadows lodge or one of the cabins....relatively close, cheap, and as close to guaranteed to get 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 yeah, I emntioned last night that if the drier model progs verified, people down south are going to be disappointed (outside the mts) place for this one seems to be at Big Meadows lodge or one of the cabins....relatively close, cheap, and as closed to guaranteed to get 6"+ yes.. agreed elevation/rates are critical. mos is still mid-upper 40s tomorrow.. it might be high but this is not the way to prep for a marginal snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 yeah, I mentioned last night that if the drier model progs verified, people down south are going to be disappointed (outside the mts) place for this one seems to be at Big Meadows lodge or one of the cabins....relatively close, cheap, and as close to guaranteed to get 6"+ I would say further south then that, somewhere along the blue ridge parkway near Roanoke is probably a good bet, or maybe some of the ridges in southern WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 it's hard to look at a model, even the nam, that dumps snow on you and say "unimportant" .. and im sure i've gotten wrapped up in the wrong solution before because i wanted snow. the thing that bothers me is some of the "hopeful" are also really smart it's just harder to tell sometimes when it comes to snow talk. i guess in the end it should not bother me at all. im glad to except some fault.. always have been. even ppl we've never met in person on here we've been conversing with yrs in many cases.. i think people don't give eachother enough credit when it comes to "knowing" someone through interaction online -- which im sure you agree given past discussions on the online v offline self. Yeah....agreed. I view fights on here often in the same light as I view fights with friends or among friends. You and Matt have had these sort of things before. I've tried my best to react to individual model runs based on stuff like what the people here who know more than me think, whether a trend is realistic, etc. At this point, actually, I am following this just to hopefully see a large portion of my weather board friends get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 South With Bupkis CMC GFS Huge hits with like .2" QPF for DCA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! NAM RGEM Haven't seen the PUKMET and the ALLCRAPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well, here's my latest attempt at a snowfall map. I know, yesterday I was on the "HUGE STORM!!!" train, but I must now admit that was incorrect and I have shifted my forecast to match most of the consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Pretty detailed AFD from mt holly issued at 940 in case anyone is bored...good read describing the confluence, omegas, ect http://forecast.weather.gov/AFDPHI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 tony pann appears to be going for 3-6 in baltimore.. ok then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Someone in VA is going to jackpot at 10" or so - perhaps even up to 14". Not widespread, but there's enough moisture for someone to get up there from a band or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well, here's my latest attempt at a snowfall map. I know, yesterday I was on the "HUGE STORM!!!" train, but I must now admit that was incorrect and I have shifted my forecast to match most of the consensus. From most of what I've seen, I think your map will be way off in far swva, southern wv, and eastern ky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Someone in VA is going to jackpot at 10" or so - perhaps even up to 14". Not widespread, but there's enough moisture for someone to get up there from a band or two. 14 seems a stretch. I doubt anyone will do better than10:1 and I kinda doubt 10:1. Maybe a high peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I know we don't discuss them, but the ARW and NMM are just tragic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 14 seems a stretch. I doubt anyone will do better than10:1 and I kinda doubt 10:1. Maybe a high peak. Probably so, but since I have nothing riding on such a call, I might as well see if I can guess right on the high end. That said, it looks like some potentially good totals in the mountains/hills of SW VA. That was more my line of thinking in throwing those numbers out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 tony pann appears to be going for 3-6 in baltimore.. ok then His lips to God's ears... I'm a weenie, no degree in meteorology, so here's my call for Baltimore: flurries, maybe a light coating on grass and cartops, nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Has anyone confirmed that there are issues with any of the model runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I know we don't discuss them, but the ARW and NMM are just tragic. They look great compared to 12 hours ago. I guess those are close range models though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 His lips to God's ears... I'm a weenie, no degree in meteorology, so here's my call for Baltimore: flurries, maybe a light coating on grass and cartops, nothing more. i think i'd have to favor your forecast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinsdomination09 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 tony pann appears to be going for 3-6 in baltimore.. ok then I don't think that will PANN out hahahahahahahaha no really though he needs to sober up. His who knows how many facebook followers/friends are bound to blindly follow his prediction and tell the world about it too. Poor things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Euro likes my "call" of over 10" in the mountains of SW VA. May turn out to be a good guess on my part. I have to admit...I'm not particularly fussed by not getting much of anything up this way. Don't know why, but it may have something to do with the beautiful weather today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Interesting how the water vapor loop shows a dry "line" of seemingly the southern limit of the northern stream my weenie mind is hoping that represents the snow line (assuming, of course, it doesn't drift south) does look like moisture from the southern stream is already feeding north of it http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It's not a storm until mitch posts a water vapor loop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I know we don't discuss them, but the ARW and NMM are just tragic. its going to be painful for some tomorrow to watch the heavy precip moving into WV aimed right at us, get all excited, only to see it wither and fall apart as the energy shifts to the coastal front shutting off the mechanism for the precip. All of the models now indicate that this whole system really falls apart as the transfer takes place since there is not much northern stream interaction and not a lot of cold air so not even much mechanism for lift or dynamics once the energy jumps to the coast. Sad sad sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 He's got a degree in meteorology from Northern Illinois U. so he's as much as a met as I am....heck maybe more since he still is actually working in the field. oops, my apologies to Mr. Pann; I don't know why I thought otherwise except I must have confused him w/somebody on the local channels that doesn't (until recently, most on the local tv didn't have met degrees) I still think his call is bullish based on existing guidance, not that I want him to be wrong of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It's not a storm until mitch posts a water vapor loop... I've said it before, I'll say it again, in the famous words of Clark Griswold, "getting there is half the fun" then again, the difference in this hobby is sometimes all you have is travel time and never make it to your destination Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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