psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 nah, I understand, I'm just hoping that the short wave in southern NE can yank that sob down south further north and put us in the place of Central VA as they look now on the models Honestly, I am not so sure central VA will even do so well in this setup because of the problems I mentioned. Its almost like a miller b type problem for them too...I know some models still put out big liquid numbers for Richmond, and its very possible thats correct...but I would be nervous if I was there that a lot of the heavier bands fall apart right at the worst time. The CCB really doesnt get cranking with the coastal low until it may be too late for much of anyone. The initial slug of gulf moisture going up the apps is going to put down a nice thump snow...not sure if the coastal will do much of anything. I want to hold out some hope that perhaps there is a more smooth transition, or maybe if the initial low holds on longer it forces a better transfer further north...etc...but I see nothing to believe that. However, weather is a humbling thing and amazes me constantly so anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Honestly, I am not so sure central VA will even do so well in this setup because of the problems I mentioned. Its almost like a miller b type problem for them too...I know some models still put out big liquid numbers for Richmond, and its very possible thats correct...but I would be nervous if I was there that a lot of the heavier bands fall apart right at the worst time. The CCB really doesnt get cranking with the coastal low until it may be too late for much of anyone. The initial slug of gulf moisture going up the apps is going to put down a nice thump snow...not sure if the coastal will do much of anything. I want to hold out some hope that perhaps there is a more smooth transition, or maybe if the initial low holds on longer it forces a better transfer further north...etc...but I see nothing to believe that. However, weather is a humbling thing and amazes me constantly so anything is possible. Interesting you should say that. There was plenty of discussion a couple days ago about this being a Miller A v Miller B, and it seems it's a bit of a hybrid instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Interesting you should say that. There was plenty of discussion a couple days ago about this being a Miller A v Miller B, and it seems it's a bit of a hybrid instead. Not sure I want to touch that argument as people on here seem to get all riled up over it and I have always thought it a bit silly. When you say miller b most think of a northern branch clipper type system that transfers energy to the coast and bombs out...this has no similarity to that. However many include southern branch systems that take an initial inland track and then transfer in the miller b discussion also. Then others argue over if something is miller a or b depending on how a transfer takes place and its stupid because every low jumps and transfers energy in some way. Low pressure systems do not have a smooth movement like a solid physical entity would. They jump along in their track on a path of least resistance. When a jump or transfer of energy becomes great enough to then classify a low as miller b versus a holds no interest to me as these are all just made up classifications we have given to atmospheric phenomenon so that we can better categorize them and compartmentalize them in our minds. In a nutshell I find it all a bit subjective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Not sure I want to touch that argument as people on here seem to get all riled up over it and I have always thought it a bit silly. When you say miller b most think of a northern branch clipper type system that transfers energy to the coast and bombs out...this has no similarity to that. However many include southern branch systems that take an initial inland track and then transfer in the miller b discussion also. Then others argue over if something is miller a or b depending on how a transfer takes place and its stupid because every low jumps and transfers energy in some way. Low pressure systems do not have a smooth movement like a solid physical entity would. They jump along in their track on a path of least resistance. When a jump or transfer of energy becomes great enough to then classify a low as miller b versus a holds no interest to me as these are all just made up classifications we have given to atmospheric phenomenon so that we can better categorize them and compartmentalize them in our minds. In a nutshell I find it all a bit subjective. Thanks for the breakdown, psu. Well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Looks like all hopes are lost related to a realistic hope for a storm that delivers plowable to BWI/DCA... All that is left is nowcasting... I'll be staring at radar and wv loop lol admittedly. This will likely be our last chance at a snowstorm this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 its going to be painful for some tomorrow to watch the heavy precip moving into WV aimed right at us, get all excited, only to see it wither and fall apart as the energy shifts to the coastal front shutting off the mechanism for the precip. All of the models now indicate that this whole system really falls apart as the transfer takes place since there is not much northern stream interaction and not a lot of cold air so not even much mechanism for lift or dynamics once the energy jumps to the coast. Sad sad sad Thats why I am glad LWX is down. It won't show our 12 HRS of virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Looks like all hopes are lost related to a realistic hope for a storm that delivers plowable to BWI/DCA... All that is left is nowcasting... I'll be staring at radar and wv loop lol admittedly. This will likely be our last chance at a snowstorm this winter. we might find another window somewhere but the next two weeks don't look pretty and then we're on serious borrowed time in the coastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 remember there is an obs threads (moved radar image there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 remember there is an obs threads (moved radar image there) http://www.americanw...-weekend-event/ Sorry Ian. Really didn't know. First storm here in "Storm Mode". Thanks for the move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 we might find another window somewhere but the next two weeks don't look pretty and then we're on serious borrowed time in the coastal plain You can really see the confluence on wv loop.. I'm watching that s/w over nebraska... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 berk map.. looks like i'll be sledding tomorrow evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Based on radar it is really hard to believe this will miss us. What a damn joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Looks like all hopes are lost related to a realistic hope for a storm that delivers plowable to BWI/DCA... All that is left is nowcasting... I'll be staring at radar and wv loop lol admittedly. This will likely be our last chance at a snowstorm this winter. I wonder how sharp the cut off will be or just where it will stop its northward progress..I am just east of Warrenton and you north side of Balt....literally a 20 mile shift either way would be huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 berk map.. looks like i'll be sledding tomorrow evening Will this guy ever learn his lesson? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Based on radar it is really hard to believe this will miss us. What a damn joke. I guess thats what Berk thinks, of course his has bust potential when you are siding with the JMA like the real jb was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Interesting post by Justin Berk, who I follow on Facebook. He has a very valid point that the surface observations will be much more important than than the model runs now because of the poor performance of the models with the storms so far this year and the very close range of the storm. The GFS which has been very in the middle of the consensus is not correct even at this short time after running. In fact, this very closely resembles the NAM of 12Z yesterday in terms of the location of the precipitation and the pressure systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Wow, the radar to model frame-by-frame analysis has already started? 30 hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 berk map.. looks like i'll be sledding tomorrow evening 2" or more or less is what he is calling for in DC. LMAO, why doesn't he just post a 0 - ∞ map or no map at all like me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Based on radar it is really hard to believe this will miss us. What a damn joke. The worst will come tomorrow afternoon, it will probably look like there is no way it can miss us for a time, then it will just fall apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Interesting post by Justin Berk, who I follow on Facebook. He has a very valid point that the surface observations will be much more important than than the model runs now because of the poor performance of the models with the storms so far this year and the very close range of the storm. The GFS which has been very in the middle of the consensus is not correct even at this short time after running. In fact, this very closely resembles the NAM of 12Z yesterday in terms of the location of the precipitation and the pressure systems. He makes so good points. You know in the end the models are just data processors with some better than others but none perfect. For margin of error statistically, 50 miles is not huge but in this case it means a huge difference. Be fun to watch it play out. I'm sure the Euro will prevail but who knows...at some point it is mother natures call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Interesting post by Justin Berk, who I follow on Facebook. He has a very valid point that the surface observations will be much more important than than the model runs now because of the poor performance of the models with the storms so far this year and the very close range of the storm. The GFS which has been very in the middle of the consensus is not correct even at this short time after running. In fact, this very closely resembles the NAM of 12Z yesterday in terms of the location of the precipitation and the pressure systems. Radar shows Has already died down. Blob headed east through the MS coast and is in prime position to rob the warm sector. Not buying any of the Justin Burk BS after all his initials are JB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It's sometimes chic to act like people forecast without a like 90% bias to the models. It's a good way to find hope too I guess. I think he was first out with that argument last weekend too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Classic fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It's sometimes chic to act like people forecast without a like 90% bias to the models. It's a good way to find hope too I guess. I think he was first out with that argument last weekend too. Put a percentage on the chance that Berk is even remotely correct, because I know now he doesn't have to put that forecast on TV and even when he's wrong as Mark (ellinwood) stated, they act like he did well. IMHO, he has a 5% chance of being right, PSUhoffman 95% as he doesn't take one frame of a radar image and interpret the whole forecast from it. The synoptic set up that was favorable for us was lot when the northern stream interaction like we had before was lost. There are always ways in which you could pull out certain things that a model is not going to perfect. Sure sometimes that works, and the storm could pull off a 1/30/10 but the chances are low, especially considering it wanted to snow that winter and we were in an el niño where the north trend had a much better trend. I think it'll edge north til game time, but the confluence would have to be less than modeled with a later transfer. Sorry Justin, I ain't buyin it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 we might find another window somewhere but the next two weeks don't look pretty and then we're on serious borrowed time in the coastal plain The only good thing is it looks bleak for BB but then he's not here to troll...oh well. Late March is gonna be rocking. PS. I have no opinion yet past a two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The only good thing is it looks bleak for BB but then he's not here to troll...oh well. Late March is gonna be rocking. PS. I have no opinion yet past a two weeks. Epic April coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 If he wasn't always snowier than everyone else I'd probably give it more credence tho even then it's optimistic up here at least. You're right fewer ppl will see it than if on TV etc but if on the job hunt being accurate more than hopeful might be a good strategy. I still sorta like 1-2 here but no major confidence in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The only good thing is it looks bleak for BB but then he's not here to troll...oh well. Late March is gonna be rocking. PS. I have no opinion yet past a two weeks. ChrisLs rocking March will happen at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The only good thing is it looks bleak for BB but then he's not here to troll...oh well. Late March is gonna be rocking. PS. I have no opinion yet past a two weeks. If we stay how we've been on temps and with the jet I think we are pretty much toast but maybe its a shorter period of bad and things slow into March.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 If he wasn't always snowier than everyone else I'd probably give it more credence tho even then it's optimistic up here at least. You're right fewer ppl will see it than if on TV etc but if on the job hunt being accurate more than hopeful might be a good strategy. I still sorta like 1-2 here but no major confidence in that. Definitely agree on the job hunt part, and I may be thinking 1-2 for DC as the last minute north trend until game time could apply and some models have the necessary qpf. Also there is that chance of the band on the north end which is something to watch for. Overall, I don't think that has the chance 1/30 had to come north though it's hard to say since we didn't really think it could. Ps SREF now supports you call, .25 if not a bit more for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.