Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I don think you should judge anyone's behavior...you have been so overly sensitive and defensive this winter...more than in the past...I hope it gets to spring soon and we all get along again...your act is played out....you get snarky and nasty and condescending and if anyone pushes back in the slightest, you get incredibly defensive..... im in a lose lose situation. my forecasts are generally very good but because i don't jump on the "omg snow is the most amazing thing ever" bandwagon i don't get that far often. i admit to my faults way more than most people here. i'd say with conviction it's not all me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 you dont need to get involved in everything....Ian is one of my best friends....There is no need for you to render an opinion okay, well why dont you guys take it off the board and deal with it like best friends do instead of dragging ian through the mud for all to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 okay, well why dont you guys take it off the board and deal with it like best friends do instead of dragging ian through the mud for all to see. im a jerk to people who don't care to learn or better themselves as "forecasters" by being here. i have little to no respect for someone who has spent years here and still acts like a total moron when it comes to "trends" "hit and miss" etc.. that's the truth.. and im sure plenty of people dislike that attitude but i won't pretend that's not how i feel. i defer to someone like matt and give him the highest respect even when i dont fully agree with him all the time. i just wish it did not need to be framed that "ian's running to his mo of spazzing out" when that's not true. i get frustrated when even my friends can't see where im coming from. i don't think im that horrible of a communicator even if i get emotional myself here way too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 okay, well why dont you guys take it off the board and deal with it like best friends do instead of dragging ian through the mud for all to see. Let it go Katie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Let it go Katie. okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 people like you have no context for discussion perhaps. the simple fact is the storm did not trend north for the 36 hours most weenies were calling it to trend north. the euro has led the way pretty much from the get go and continues to -- perhaps you missed it's MASSIVE shift north last night. of course if it snows this will go in the "north trend" files and dummies will forget how we got there. LOL to the bolded. Below, note the EURO snowfall depiction at the maixmum extent and enjoy the 0.2 to perhaps 0.3 of an inch from this "massive" shift north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 LOL to the bolded. Below, note the EURO snowfall depiction at the maixmum extent and enjoy the 0.2 to perhaps 0.3 of an inch from this "massive" shift north. over your head.. thanks for playing tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 agreed 100%.....And I think everyone recognizes you are one of the most knowledgable hobbyists and skilled forecasters....so I am not always sure what the point is....This has been a really odd storm in a really odd winter....I dont mind being humbled by it...I think I have oscillated too much on this one with the models, though like the rest of us "snow lovers", I know what we are up against....even at my most optimistic I think I had a 75% chance of <4" which is lower than HPC.... im too serious about forecasting these days.. im not sure why even though i do it for cwg several times a week. i think you give some of your compadres too much credit based on commentary here but i dont really have a strong beef with anyone, let alone you.. it's just frustrating sometimes not to be on that side of the same coin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 How are you suppose to make a forecast with these crappy models? Who runs these things? Terrible. This is 2012, In Back to the Future in 2015 they could predict when rain would stop to the second! Get on their level! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 over your head.. thanks for playing tho I'm not at all interested that you are impatient and grouchy this morning but at the very least, why would you say that? Maybe it (EURO) came north a little but not enough to get even a flurry into central and east PA. It still seems that the SREF, GFS and EURO are holding onto light, if any snow accumulating DC and north and that the NAM is on its own. Which part is over my head? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 How are you suppose to make a forecast with these crappy models? Who runs these things? Terrible. This is 2012, In Back to the Future in 2015 they could predict when rain would stop to the second! Get on their level! You aren't. So do us all a favor and never look at a model again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 You aren't. So do us all a favor and never look at a model again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 This is a really dumb fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'm not at all interested that you are impatient and grouchy this morning but at the very least, why would you say that? Maybe it (EURO) came north a little but not enough to get even a flurry into central and east PA. It still seems that the SREF, GFS and EURO are holding onto light, if any snow accumulating DC and north and that the NAM is on its own. Which part is over my head? i agree. i should not have assumed you read the following but that's why i was saying that: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 You aren't. So do us all a favor and never look at a model again. But I cant keep my eyes off models...they make me feel all warm inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 But I cant keep my eyes off models...they make me feel all warm inside. I think I just threw up a little bit.....thanks for the over share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I think some of us are emotionally invested in snow in a way that you aren't....i dont think that makes us crazy or ignorant of reality....there are things that definitely get under my skin too, so I am the same way in many respects... yes that may be true. i know we usually are arguing almos the exact same thing from a slightly different viewpoint. i like being snarky to people.. sometimes it comes off as worse than it is. i don't want people to dislike me just because but im not out to keep everyone happy with my commentary. i guess someday it will be good when i realize i don't have to post everything i think like those horrible newbies.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 anyway, im sorry for snarking at matt.. everyone else can shove it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 How is it that weather geeks can create so much drama? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 i agree. i should not have assumed you read the following but that's why i was saying that: http://www.americanw...ost__p__1384967 Sorry I missed the captivating discussion about whether the 0.01" to 0.1" band moved north 25 miles or 100 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I think I just threw up a little bit.....thanks for the over share. I seem to get that a lot...Im not sure why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The EURO better shift a little bit more up the coast at 12z or this forum may implode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 LOL to the bolded. Below, note the EURO snowfall depiction at the maixmum extent and enjoy the 0.2 to perhaps 0.3 of an inch from this "massive" shift north. LOL are you kidding me? Getting the shaft again here I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The EURO better shift a little bit more up the coast at 12z or this forum may implode. implode? probably more like crickets. server is going to get some much needed rest. I'm heading out this afternoon for a couple rounds of disc golf and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't happy with sunny and 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THEREALTOR1 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 damn.....gfs holding onto the south solution. so close yet so damn far... I'm in weenie mode this a.m. also. Nam invites you back to the party, and the GFS kicks you back out again. Compared to the 00z run, the 12z really seemed to be all over the place when you compared the two frame by frame. I'm just gonna ignore the GFS and blame it on its' s/e bias, and hug the NAM til the Euro either kicks the door in or puts me out of my misery. Green grass and flowers in February are seriously affecting my acoholism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 yawn.. i know snow is the most important thing to you so i dont ever expect you to act like a friend here. plus you have everyone on your side anyway.. hopefully we back into a 2-4" that happens completely different than your crystal ball saw a week ago. at least the range will be good and that's all that matter.s Those who are level-headed, they've been smart. But I agree, letting model runs jerk emotions up and down IS strange and not good. I mean, why let a hobby shake you up that much, you know? That sort of thing is as old as ne.weather of course; probably isn't going to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinsdomination09 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 time to throw out a pretty statistic. not trying to be a weenie or give a stupid post but this offered a little comfort to me. (all winters with less than 5 inches at BWI and then the following winter) 1889-1890 .4.9 - 35.9 1918-1919 4.0 - 14.9 1931-1932 4.2 - 27.9 1949-1950 .7 - 6.2 1959 -1960 4.0 - 34.1 1972 -1973 1.2 - 17.1 1980 -1981 4.6 - 25.5 1991-1992 4.1 - 24.4 1997-1998 3.2 - 15.2 2001-2002 2.3 - 58.1 Avg 3.32 - 25.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Those who are level-headed, they've been smart. But I agree, letting model runs jerk emotions up and down IS strange and not good. I mean, why let a hobby shake you up that much, you know? That sort of thing is as old as ne.weather of course; probably isn't going to change. it's hard to look at a model, even the nam, that dumps snow on you and say "unimportant" .. and im sure i've gotten wrapped up in the wrong solution before because i wanted snow. the thing that bothers me is some of the "hopeful" are also really smart it's just harder to tell sometimes when it comes to snow talk. i guess in the end it should not bother me at all. im glad to except some fault.. always have been. even ppl we've never met in person on here we've been conversing with yrs in many cases.. i think people don't give eachother enough credit when it comes to "knowing" someone through interaction online -- which im sure you agree given past discussions on the online v offline self. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 new gfs mos has 60 for iad tomorrow lookin' pretty good so far here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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