Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well GFS is still a bit south. I'm waiting for that to come around. The NAM is noteworthy now because it's in a supposedly better time range AND it has some backup from the Euro. If it were on it's own, screw it. Not going down that path again. I gave a little but of respect to the NAM because perhaps I was unfairly bashing it and maybe it has some validity in this range, but it still doesnt mean a whole lot to me....I dont give it much weight......The GFS most of the time has one of the most expansive precip fields..If it doesn't come around that is a red flag.....The Euro is usually pretty modest with QPF so I pay it a little more deference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 everyone knows what we are up against......this is a pretty knowledgable group.....the weenie influx is kind of annoying, but most of us understand the odds pretty well.... you've been more snow heavy than normal in almost all your thoughts lately.. and flip back and forth between loving and hating this place. im not shocked you don't agree tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 You had the company of Skippy Silly skippy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 I gave a little but of respect to the NAM because perhaps I was unfairly bashing it and maybe it has some validity in this range, but it still doesnt mean a whole lot to me....I dont give it much weight......The GFS most of the time has one of the most expansive precip fields..If it doesn't come around that is a red flag.....The Euro is usually pretty modest with QPF so I pay it a little more deference Agree. I gave the NAM and RGEM a glance... if the GFS this run doesn't shift north a tad... then just wait till 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 i know.. i know. saying anything against the snow geese crowd is a big offense. before matt and others pile on too heavily. im sorry. back into my hole. Wha?? lol Nobody's coming at you like that...I was just curious as to what posts you were referring to, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I looked at the 6-12z nam and 6z gfs pretty closely. 12z nam has the best surface track out of the 3 and that's probably a good thing. Another thing that's at least kinda interesting is just a day or 2 ago all the models had the low basically passing directly over hse and there were still plenty of dry solutions. now we have the slp passing off nc to the s & e but the precip sheild to the n&w is making it into our area. The subtle shifts really do mean alot here. I hope the gfs has the same 850 track as the 12z nam. If so, i have a feeling we're all getting sucked back in pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Wha?? lol Nobody's coming at you like that...I was just curious as to what posts you were referring to, lol. i was referring to nobody. i made it up. sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well here we go... 12z GFS has started... hope its like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I gave a little but of respect to the NAM because perhaps I was unfairly bashing it and maybe it has some validity in this range, but it still doesnt mean a whole lot to me....I dont give it much weight......The GFS most of the time has one of the most expansive precip fields..If it doesn't come around that is a red flag.....The Euro is usually pretty modest with QPF so I pay it a little more deference Agreed. The only reason the NAM got a second look from me is because the Euro crept north. I need to see the GFS come around. If the GFS is still sh*t, we're probably looking at 0 to 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 i was referring to nobody. i made it up. sorry. smdh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 i was referring to nobody. i made it up. sorry. You're a hard man to have a debate with...hope I didn't offend you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 ... at 11 p.m. last night everyone was cancelling the storm after declaring it giant at 11 a.m. etc etc. it's not normal and people who have been doing this a while should know better. How can you say that in a setting where some of the louder voices here were bowing down to the EURO, worshoping the ground that the EURO walks on...the EURO sends the storm to the south and eventually just about every other model follows that trend and then this AM...the NAM blinks and waddles north...no one can be faulted for being whipsawed...two or three of the METS have been saying..."Wait, it can still change" but most of the experienced amateurs here bought the south/suppressed trend; and confidence is still whipsawing. We not done...would you bet real money on the grass where you live being white or brown Monday AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 smdh when you're vastly outmanned there's little reason in going to war. then again i like snow too.. im just not going to pretend that the roller coaster people go through run to run is perfectly sane. it would be nice if some learned how the models go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 i know.. i know. saying anything against the snow geese crowd is a big offense. before matt and others pile on too heavily. im sorry. back into my hole. there is no piling on...you have done a good job with this storm so far...particularly being very cautious and noncommittal....this has been an awful storm to get too deterministic with......You do seem to have a compulsion to beat a dead horse....If we get nary a flake nobody is going to be surprised or shocked, so I guess I don't really understand the point....we live in DC and this is one of the warmest and least snowy winters of our lifetimes..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 How can you say that in a setting where some of the louder voices here were bowing down to the EURO, worshoping the ground that the EURO walks on...the EURO sends the storm to the south and eventually just about every other model follows that trend and then this AM...the NAM blinks and waddles north...no one can be faulted for being whipsawed...two or three of the METS have been saying..."Wait it can still change" but most of the experienced amateurs here bought the south/suppressed trend; and confidence is still whipsawing. We not done...would you bet real money on the grass where you live being white or brown Monday AM? people like you have no context for discussion perhaps. the simple fact is the storm did not trend north for the 36 hours most weenies were calling it to trend north. the euro has led the way pretty much from the get go and continues to -- perhaps you missed it's MASSIVE shift north last night. of course if it snows this will go in the "north trend" files and dummies will forget how we got there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I looked at the 6-12z nam and 6z gfs pretty closely. 12z nam has the best surface track out of the 3 and that's probably a good thing. Another thing that's at least kinda interesting is just a day or 2 ago all the models had the low basically passing directly over hse and there were still plenty of dry solutions. now we have the slp passing off nc to the s & e but the precip sheild to the n&w is making it into our area. The subtle shifts really do mean alot here. I hope the gfs has the same 850 track as the 12z nam. If so, i have a feeling we're all getting sucked back in pretty bad. The 09Z sref guidance no longer shows a lot of wiggle so I don't see us having much chance of getting ovr 2" and even that might be pushing as I'd lean more towards the GFS and Euro than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 there is no piling on...you have done a good job with this storm so far...particularly being very cautious and noncommittal....this has been an awful storm to get too deterministic with......You do seem to have a compulsion to beat a dead horse....If we get nary a flake nobody is going to be surprised or shocked, so I guess I don't really understand the point....we live in DC and this is one of the warmest and least snowy winters of our lifetimes..... Does DC ever get 100% shutout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 there is no piling on...you have done a good job with this storm so far...particularly being very cautious and noncommittal....this has been an awful storm to get too deterministic with......You do seem to have a compulsion to beat a dead horse....If we get nary a flake nobody is going to be surprised or shocked, so I guess I don't really understand the point....we live in DC and this is one of the warmest and least snowy winters of our lifetimes..... yawn.. i know snow is the most important thing to you so i dont ever expect you to act like a friend here. plus you have everyone on your side anyway.. hopefully we back into a 2-4" that happens completely different than your crystal ball saw a week ago. at least the range will be good and that's all that matter.s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Does DC ever get 100% shutout? Not since records have began.........there have been a few winters with DCA getting 0.1", but the airport almost always gets the lowest totals in the area, so no, there has been no shutout winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 you've been more snow heavy than normal in almost all your thoughts lately.. and flip back and forth between loving and hating this place. im not shocked you don't agree tho. really?....ok....whatever....Thanks for the reminder that in DC in one of the worst winters ever, this might not work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 just cause i'm in a weenie mood this am......precip is decent bit further N on 12z gfs @ hr21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 it would be nice if some learned how the models go. More digs from you... ...WES teaches us to give weight to the SREF which heavily bought into the suppression track...people here that try to develop skill with the models are getting whipsawed but it is the nature of the game. The other seven billion members of Humanity could care less about a 40 mile wobble in the path of light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 just cause i'm in a weenie mood this am......precip is decent bit further N on 12z gfs @ hr21. Esp in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 there is no piling on...you have done a good job with this storm so far...particularly being very cautious and noncommittal....this has been an awful storm to get too deterministic with......You do seem to have a compulsion to beat a dead horse....If we get nary a flake nobody is going to be surprised or shocked, so I guess I don't really understand the point....we live in DC and this is one of the warmest and least snowy winters of our lifetimes..... I think the lowest snowfall in a nina season since 1950 was 4 inches and change so even in nina's this is a big anomaly unless we luck out in March. I don't see much chance for the remainder of the month. We need to we get a couple inches out of this one which is possible but is still an uphill battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I think maybe somebody has not gotten enough sleep the past few days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 yawn.. i know snow is the most important thing to you so i dont ever expect you to act like a friend here. plus you have everyone on your side anyway.. hopefully we back into a 2-4" that happens completely different than your crystal ball saw a week ago. at least the range will be good and that's all that matter.s I don think you should judge anyone's behavior...you have been so overly sensitive and defensive this winter...more than in the past...I hope it gets to spring soon and we all get along again...your act is played out....you get snarky and nasty and condescending and if anyone pushes back in the slightest, you get incredibly defensive..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I think maybe somebody has not gotten enough sleep the past few days... I sure haven't. Around here everyone temds to love everyone in big snow years except trolls but during non snow years, members get a little fractious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 damn.....gfs holding onto the south solution. so close yet so damn far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I don think you should judge anyone's behavior...you have been so overly sensitive and defensive this winter...more than in the past...I hope it gets to spring soon and we all get along again...your act is played out....you get snarky and nasty and condescending and if anyone pushes back in the slightest, you get incredibly defensive..... I don't know if Id go that far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I don think you should judge anyone's behavior...you have been so overly sensitive and defensive this winter...more than in the past...I hope it gets to spring soon and we all get along again...your act is played out....you get snarky and nasty and condescending and if anyone pushes back in the slightest, you get incredibly defensive..... im in a lose lose situation. my forecasts are generally very good but because i don't jump on the "omg snow is the most amazing thing ever" bandwagon i don't get that far often. i admit to my faults way more than most people here. i'd say with conviction it's not all me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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