winterymix Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 He's got a degree in meteorology from Northern Illinois U. so he's as much as a met as I am....heck maybe more since he still is actually working in the field. Cool...the Fairness doctrine. I feel like this whiff to the south is like the Raven's season ending loss. Time for retail therapy. Who is going to Best Buy to pick up a plasma TV since we can't get good snows this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 nam looks kinda similar through 30...i think...though definitely looks a little wetter to the west...maybe a tick north...looks better defined at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Crap winters usually don't change this late in the season. A moderate to heavy snowfall, in spite of all the model promise the past several days, would have been highly unusual in a year like this. Just like expecting a north trend in a Nina year is risky, saying that a storm is unlikely just because the winter has been lacking snow until now is equally risky. There is some truth to persistence and seasonal trends, but there are also numerous examples of years where we had an aweful pattern in December/January then had a big snow in February/March. You have to weigh more factors into a forecast then pattern/persistence or trends. Each storm is a singular event, they relate to each other in that they are all connected within the wave patterns of the atmosphere but each will have its own tendencies and not necessarily follow a pattern of previous storms. The February 2006 storm came during the middle of a horrible pattern for snow. Our biggest problem with this specific storm is that during a nina getting the northern branch to interact with the STJ correctly is very difficult. The northern branch is screaming along in a zonal flow making it difficult to get good phasing. Northern branch systems tend to end up north of us at this latitude, and stj dominant systems end up being squashed by the fast northern branch flow instead of phasing. This is a known problem during a Nina pattern and why we don't tend to get big snows...it can happen but its rare. Simply saying its not going to snow because it hasn't snowed yet this year though is misleading and too simplistic. Sorry, rant over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Totally uncool that you deleted my well wishes. lol You should have probably put it here. Where you could have just now instead of whining about deletion in a model thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Huh-huh. Going to plan so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The NAM is the hot chick in 11th grade that sits next to ya in typing class but bangs the abusive class bully because he gets booze for her on Friday nights. NAM north and wet...freaking tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Good luck folks. Please take pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 lol You should have probably put it here. Where you could have just now instead of whining about deletion in a model thread. Well, good luck!!! I think it's awesome how pumped you guys get for T-2". It's very child like and very endearing. Hope it creeps north and gives you something more substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 This thing is actually trending north. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The NAM is the hot chick in 11th grade that sits next to ya in typing class but bangs the abusive class bully because he gets booze for her on Friday nights. NAM north and wet...freaking tease. LOL, that was funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well, good luck!!! I think it's awesome how pumped you guys get for T-2". It's very child like and very endearing. Hope it creeps north and gives you something more substantial. You constantly brag about the little creampuff snows that whiten the ground at your house. I have seen the posts. Stop lying, dude. You are annoying enough as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The NAM is the hot chick in 11th grade that sits next to ya in typing class but bangs the abusive class bully because he gets booze for her on Friday nights. NAM north and wet...freaking tease. West as well...that SL is definitely west of 6z...not confident enough in my analysis to put in the main thread...you know this is close to being something pretty good...move it west and north 50 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 You constantly brag about the little creampuff snows that whiten the ground at your house. I have seen the posts. Stop lying, dude. You are annoying enough as it is. Geez, they haven't banned you yet? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Geez, they haven't banned you yet? Lol Why would they ban me for posting in my own banter thread? Anyway, focus on your own life and times, dude. Last I heard they needed some work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 lol @ the NAM giving us snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 3" IMBY final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well, good luck!!! I think it's awesome how pumped you guys get for T-2". It's very child like and very endearing. Hope it creeps north and gives you something more substantial. Thanks. I think it's obvious how much you enjoying being perceived as a complete and total douche because you live out in the here yonder with a 3 walled outhouse in an area that gets a lot of snow. It's very smarmy and tool like and very off putting. Thanks for the good luck!!!!! The child like occupants of the Mid Atlantic are so grateful dude! *Now this is the part where you get a case of the "Who, me?!!?" and act like you were posting in good faith and we're just over sensitive. Go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I've been bringing up Jan of 2010 for a couple days now, and thinking about that event, if that low which was further south could push precip into a solid rock wall of cold air and confluence to our north, it sure seems that this moisture laden system would be able to shove up some precip into a much warmer airmass. I honestly think this north trend is just starting and will keep going through 0z. If I was on the southern side of the progged heavy snow, I'd be just a tad worried. More than a tad actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 lol @ the NAM giving us snow again. You gave me a last night. Don't just yet. Tomorrow afternoon/evening is still an eternity away in weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Let me also say...I don't have a problem with New Englanders or anybody for that matter coming in to talk about an analyze the storm if they are here in good faith. Coastalwx, weathafella and Ginx (for the most part) and some others get a passport. It's the obvious trolls that give that region the awful reputation across the other forums. You can't come into another region's forum and condescendingly label them as child like and expect to get a warm greeting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Let me also say...I don't have a problem with New Englanders or anybody for that matter coming in to talk about an analyze the storm if they are here in good faith. Coastalwx, weathafella and Ginx (for the most part) and some others get a passport. It's the obvious trolls that give that region the awful reputation across the other forums. You can't come into another region's forum and condescendingly label them as child like and expect to get a warm greeting. Don't leave out ORH. He's one of the absolute best. But, I'm with you. Some of those guys come here to just rub salt in the wounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Why exactly is the republic of Massachusetts so concerned with our paltry little snow/non snow event? It's a little confusing...a couple of the dudes I get it...they seem like nice guys but overall even for them I am not sure why a T to 2" event warrants them posting so much down here....eh...free board I guess...have at it boys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Dang...3 posts in a row about the same thing....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 You gave me a last night. Don't just yet. Tomorrow afternoon/evening is still an eternity away in weather. I'm not counting on being saved like on 1/30/2010, but good luck. If I do get a decent event out of this, then I'll apologize to you, but I think the chance of that happening is low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwonder Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Ahhhh the price for two winters ago! I'm thankful I whiffed winter last week when I went to Deep Creek for the weekend- it snowed from Friday to Sunday non stop! It ALMOST makes it easier (this non-winter) to take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 im really convinced a lot of peope here need pyschological help.. the emotional vacillations are concerning. of course no one is happy with the reality that we'll get a light event but want to see the models pound us again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Don't leave out ORH. He's one of the absolute best. But, I'm with you. Some of those guys come here to just rub salt in the wounds. Yeah, Will is my boy. He goes without saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Just like expecting a north trend in a Nina year is risky, saying that a storm is unlikely just because the winter has been lacking snow until now is equally risky. There is some truth to persistence and seasonal trends, but there are also numerous examples of years where we had an aweful pattern in December/January then had a big snow in February/March. You have to weigh more factors into a forecast then pattern/persistence or trends. Each storm is a singular event, they relate to each other in that they are all connected within the wave patterns of the atmosphere but each will have its own tendencies and not necessarily follow a pattern of previous storms. The February 2006 storm came during the middle of a horrible pattern for snow. Our biggest problem with this specific storm is that during a nina getting the northern branch to interact with the STJ correctly is very difficult. The northern branch is screaming along in a zonal flow making it difficult to get good phasing. Northern branch systems tend to end up north of us at this latitude, and stj dominant systems end up being squashed by the fast northern branch flow instead of phasing. This is a known problem during a Nina pattern and why we don't tend to get big snows...it can happen but its rare. Simply saying its not going to snow because it hasn't snowed yet this year though is misleading and too simplistic. Sorry, rant over. I think March 2009 might be an example that supports your argument. And March 1976. Maybe Feb 1972, though that was earlier than now. As was Feb 1995. In 2005-06 we had had some snow in December. I can't think of too many other cases where we were this low this late in the season, and pulled out a good snow. Which is why I said it was "unusual" in my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 You gave me a last night. Don't just yet. Tomorrow afternoon/evening is still an eternity away in weather. you shouold be a little less proud to be a giant weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 If the Euro holds or even the new NAM holds I hope it puts to rest the idea that all storms end up trending north and staying there. I think such events are little more common than the reverse but suspect that our memories play tricks on us and we don't remember the ones like this one that abort 48hr ahead of time. Instead we remember the Jan 30, 2010 events where we gget a nice storm. Too bad no stats are kept about that. It would be a hell of a study but I would love to look at all storms during the DJF period during say a 10 year period where at 72 hours out a consensus of the GFS/ECMWF had DC getting more then say 5" of snow and then look at the end result and determine what percentage the storm shifted north vs stayed similar or shifted south. I do think we would find it does tend to trend north more often then south but its not by nearly as much as some think and its not universal. In some patterns its more common then others. I think its much more common to get a north trend when the H5 energy for the storm is northern branch dominant or where there is good phasing. I think the models tend to overestimate the ammount of northern branch digging for east coast troughs many times. This can often lead to the drift north on models as they realize the northern branch won't dig as much. When a storm is southern branch dominant with a split flow, I bet we would find there there are equal chances of a north or south trend. In a Nina even more so. Split flow patterns can lead to great mid atlantic snowstorms but when the phasing between branches doesn't work out I can remember many times where NC got a nice snow and we were left out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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