weatherwonder Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Ahhhh the price for two winters ago! I'm thankful I whiffed winter last week when I went to Deep Creek for the weekend- it snowed from Friday to Sunday non stop! It ALMOST makes it easier (this non-winter) to take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 im really convinced a lot of peope here need pyschological help.. the emotional vacillations are concerning. of course no one is happy with the reality that we'll get a light event but want to see the models pound us again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Don't leave out ORH. He's one of the absolute best. But, I'm with you. Some of those guys come here to just rub salt in the wounds. Yeah, Will is my boy. He goes without saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Just like expecting a north trend in a Nina year is risky, saying that a storm is unlikely just because the winter has been lacking snow until now is equally risky. There is some truth to persistence and seasonal trends, but there are also numerous examples of years where we had an aweful pattern in December/January then had a big snow in February/March. You have to weigh more factors into a forecast then pattern/persistence or trends. Each storm is a singular event, they relate to each other in that they are all connected within the wave patterns of the atmosphere but each will have its own tendencies and not necessarily follow a pattern of previous storms. The February 2006 storm came during the middle of a horrible pattern for snow. Our biggest problem with this specific storm is that during a nina getting the northern branch to interact with the STJ correctly is very difficult. The northern branch is screaming along in a zonal flow making it difficult to get good phasing. Northern branch systems tend to end up north of us at this latitude, and stj dominant systems end up being squashed by the fast northern branch flow instead of phasing. This is a known problem during a Nina pattern and why we don't tend to get big snows...it can happen but its rare. Simply saying its not going to snow because it hasn't snowed yet this year though is misleading and too simplistic. Sorry, rant over. I think March 2009 might be an example that supports your argument. And March 1976. Maybe Feb 1972, though that was earlier than now. As was Feb 1995. In 2005-06 we had had some snow in December. I can't think of too many other cases where we were this low this late in the season, and pulled out a good snow. Which is why I said it was "unusual" in my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 You gave me a last night. Don't just yet. Tomorrow afternoon/evening is still an eternity away in weather. you shouold be a little less proud to be a giant weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 If the Euro holds or even the new NAM holds I hope it puts to rest the idea that all storms end up trending north and staying there. I think such events are little more common than the reverse but suspect that our memories play tricks on us and we don't remember the ones like this one that abort 48hr ahead of time. Instead we remember the Jan 30, 2010 events where we gget a nice storm. Too bad no stats are kept about that. It would be a hell of a study but I would love to look at all storms during the DJF period during say a 10 year period where at 72 hours out a consensus of the GFS/ECMWF had DC getting more then say 5" of snow and then look at the end result and determine what percentage the storm shifted north vs stayed similar or shifted south. I do think we would find it does tend to trend north more often then south but its not by nearly as much as some think and its not universal. In some patterns its more common then others. I think its much more common to get a north trend when the H5 energy for the storm is northern branch dominant or where there is good phasing. I think the models tend to overestimate the ammount of northern branch digging for east coast troughs many times. This can often lead to the drift north on models as they realize the northern branch won't dig as much. When a storm is southern branch dominant with a split flow, I bet we would find there there are equal chances of a north or south trend. In a Nina even more so. Split flow patterns can lead to great mid atlantic snowstorms but when the phasing between branches doesn't work out I can remember many times where NC got a nice snow and we were left out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 im really convinced a lot of peope here need pyschological help.. the emotional vacillations are concerning. of course no one is happy with the reality that we'll get a light event but want to see the models pound us again. I sometimes think the people......who think the people who root really hard for snow...... are more obsessed than the people who are doing the rooting....most of us and I emphasized most move on pretty quickly after a bust or not event....but it just seems like some people think this baggage is carried around day after day....i'm not so sure that's true...maybe...but I don't think so. anyway...3" IMBY final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Thanks. I think it's obvious how much you enjoying being perceived as a complete and total douche because you live out in the here yonder with a 3 walled outhouse in an area that gets a lot of snow. It's very smarmy and tool like and very off putting. Thanks for the good luck!!!!! The child like occupants of the Mid Atlantic are so grateful dude! *Now this is the part where you get a case of the "Who, me?!!?" and act like you were posting in good faith and we're just over sensitive. Go! C'mon Randy. Perhaps "child like" had the wrong connotation. I only meant that I like to see adults lose their hardened veneer and act excited over snow. I hope you end up getting a decent snowfall. I'm hoping to get 2-4, maybe 5" tonight from the NS system and, though I see snow frequently even that little bit get me psyched too. You and your crew don't like me, that's cool. It doesn't mean that I feel that way about you guys. You're just over sensitive.lol Let me also say...I don't have a problem with New Englanders or anybody for that matter coming in to talk about an analyze the storm if they are here in good faith. Coastalwx, weathafella and Ginx (for the most part) and some others get a passport. It's the obvious trolls that give that region the awful reputation across the other forums. You can't come into another region's forum and condescendingly label them as child like and expect to get a warm greeting. Coastalwx, Weatherfella and Ginx are all friends and you are correct in appreciatingtheir contributions. We are lucky to count them as family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I sometimes think the people......who think the people who root really hard for snow...... are more obsessed than the people who are doing the rooting....most of us and I emphasized most move on pretty quickly after a bust or not event....but it just seems like some people think this baggage is carried around day after day....i'm not so sure that's true...maybe...but I don't think so. anyway...3" IMBY final call i don't tihnk you understand what i said. i could not care less if you spend your whole day rooting. it's the fac that at 11 p.m. last night everyone was cancelling the storm after declaring it giant at 11 a.m. etc etc. it's not normal and people who have been doing this a while should know better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I sometimes think the people......who think the people who root really hard for snow...... are more obsessed than the people who are doing the rooting....most of us and I emphasized most move on pretty quickly after a bust or not event....but it just seems like some people think this baggage is carried around day after day....i'm not so sure that's true...maybe...but I don't think so. anyway...3" IMBY final call Stores ready for the onslaught? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 C'mon Randy. Perhaps "child like" had the wrong connotation. I only meant that I like to see adults lose their hardened veneer and act excited over snow. I hope you end up getting a decent snowfall. I'm hoping to get 2-4, maybe 5" tonight from the NS system and, though I see snow frequently even that little bit get me psyched too. You and your crew don't like me, that's cool. It doesn't mean that I feel that way about you guys. You're just over sensitive.lol Coastalwx, Weatherfella and Ginx are all friends and you are correct in appreciatingtheir contributions. We are lucky to count them as family. Now that is funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 you shouold be a little less proud to be a giant weenie Being a snow weenie is one of the things in life that costs nothing. If it doesn't snow, so what? I hope this keeps coming north. If it does, it's going to get fun in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 i don't tihnk you understand what i said. i could not care less if you spend your whole day rooting. it's the fac that at 11 p.m. last night everyone was cancelling the storm after declaring it giant at 11 a.m. etc etc. it's not normal and people who have been doing this a while should know better. Not everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 i don't tihnk you understand what i said. i could not care less if you spend your whole day rooting. it's the fac that at 11 p.m. last night everyone was cancelling the storm after declaring it giant at 11 a.m. etc etc. it's not normal and people who have been doing this a while should know better. I stopped trying to define normal in my late 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Stores ready for the onslaught? I haven't said a word...not really feeling it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 I haven't said a word...not really feeling it Sales been good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I haven't said a word...not really feeling it I was hoping you were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Now that is funny Glad you got the joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Sales been good? Incredible......stock price soaring after another stellar earnings call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Why exactly is the republic of Massachusetts so concerned with our paltry little snow/non snow event? It's a little confusing...a couple of the dudes I get it...they seem like nice guys but overall even for them I am not sure why a T to 2" event warrants them posting so much down here....eh...free board I guess...have at it boys Well, up here we are having as much of a schitty winter (I call it Wonter) as anyone else. So when we see a bunch of people we (sorta) know from the board getting anything (and some will be getting more than 2") it is pretty cool. At least for me. Boston might set it's all time low snowfall total this year, despite a bunch of us not too far away gettting a 20" storm in Oct. A sincere good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yeah, Will is my boy. He goes without saying. He has been way to quiet this year. :sad: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well, up here we are having as much of a schitty winter (I call it Wonter) as anyone else. So when we see a bunch of people we (sorta) know from the board getting anything (and some will be getting more than 2") it is pretty cool. At least for me. Boston might set it's all time low snowfall total this year, despite a bunch of us not too far away gettting a 20" storm in Oct. A sincere good luck. Yeah I get it from guys like you...thanks...I hope so too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Geez, they haven't banned you yet? Lol I like Phin's posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Not everybody. I was and feel like a jack wagon....it was that one 00z run of the NAM and those clown maps that that had us getting crazy amounts that I pinned my hopes on even though I should have known better after all these years...Oh those clown maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 im really convinced a lot of peope here need pyschological help.. the emotional vacillations are concerning. of course no one is happy with the reality that we'll get a light event but want to see the models pound us again. Everyone is crazy, just different types of crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 What do you call it when you consistently do the exact same things that you criticize others for doing and you do it in such a way that you can't hide the fact that you are acting in bad faith no matter how much you try? I remember it from college psych but it's slipping my mind..........Ah! I remember. It's called skimargichosis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 i don't tihnk you understand what i said. i could not care less if you spend your whole day rooting. it's the fac that at 11 p.m. last night everyone was cancelling the storm after declaring it giant at 11 a.m. etc etc. it's not normal and people who have been doing this a while should know better. Who is declaring it a giant? I think you'll see some measured responses in the model thread. I think most of the long timers have been very measured and cautious. So who are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I think March 2009 might be an example that supports your argument. And March 1976. Maybe Feb 1972, though that was earlier than now. As was Feb 1995. In 2005-06 we had had some snow in December. I can't think of too many other cases where we were this low this late in the season, and pulled out a good snow. Which is why I said it was "unusual" in my post. 1958 if you want to go way way way back, no snow more then an inch before Feb 15th in the DC area, then 3 storms of 8" or more after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 C'mon Randy. Perhaps "child like" had the wrong connotation. I only meant that I like to see adults lose their hardened veneer and act excited over snow. I hope you end up getting a decent snowfall. I'm hoping to get 2-4, maybe 5" tonight from the NS system and, though I see snow frequently even that little bit get me psyched too. You and your crew don't like me, that's cool. It doesn't mean that I feel that way about you guys. You're just over sensitive.lol Coastalwx, Weatherfella and Ginx are all friends and you are correct in appreciatingtheir contributions. We are lucky to count them as family. I think you're a bit of a douche, but I don't dislike you. As far as being overly sensitive....probably. But does it help for you, with your ill reputation that YOU earned on your own, to come in here using loaded words? Nope. You knew how that would be perceived here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 1958 if you want to go way way way back, no snow more then an inch before Feb 15th in the DC area, then 3 storms of 8" or more after that. Wow. Now that would be something to talk about. For me, I hope the trend continues to the point that we end up with a nice, pretty snow here tomorrow and then I hope we move straight to the 60's and 70's and that I'm mowing by the middle of march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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