NoVaWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 As far as I remember the past few years tracking storms on models, almost every storm I can remember except from 2009-10 had a set of model runs that showed a complete whiff before the storm and everybody jumped off faster than they started riding the models 7 days out. Not saying I think it's coming north, but its gonna be damn funny if it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 heh so far your getting your wish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 so far your getting your wish expecting snow around here is almost always a dangerous prospect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 expecting snow around here is almost always a dangerous prospect. If bwi doesnt get accuming ill be furious haha admittedly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 If bwi doesnt get accuming ill be furious haha admittedly It's just weather. No need to get furious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 New forecast for the washington area. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=46.8526782485311&lon=-121.7779541015625&site=sew&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 New forecast for the washington area. http://forecast.weat...n&FcstType=text I feel shafted. Only a winter storm warning? With 80 mile per hour winds and snow falling at a rate of 3 to 5 inches an hour for basically two days straight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim_in_CA Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 exactly. north trend storms are probably more memorable in the jan 30 case as well as the case where they trend further north and slam someone else (the snow guys up north are much more annoying than the ones who rarely get it south, not to mention it often ends up rain when south). im an ardent believer in the north trend over history.. i think i've made up a 9 of 10 stat in the past. but it definitely does not happen all the time and probably less than we think as you point to. this year it just doesnt want to snow here. that's not to say it never will or can't but it doesnt want to. The crazy thing this winter is it doesn't want to snow ANYWHERE. The whole country has done pretty poorly - even moreso the east coast. It's not like SNE or anyone else has had anything to speak of this year either. I'm used to us not getting snow, but when the northern tier is blanked for a whole year too, it is strange indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Sleeping weenies missed the Euro northward shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 new gfs mos has 60 for iad tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 New forecast for the washington area. http://forecast.weat...n&FcstType=text You're gonna need a bigger shovel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I have had my plow attachment out much of this winter for quick easy access. LOL. Going to take advantage of this typical balmy day and put it back into barn storage. My STOKE's garden seeds are being shipped just in time for 3 months of nasty cold and rainy weather. Sent from my PC36100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The RGEM black and white maps were trademarked by Ponce de Leon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Sleeping weenie reporting. Whar's is up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 well nam came north a little bit. looks like it's a matter of how well these systems phase. i don't know whether we want the northern energy to speed up or the southern energy to slow down, but from reading the discussions it seems like that is the situation. the 6z nam came north for sure at hr 42...has the 0.1" line up to dc now whereas the 0z had it down near fredericksburg. looks a little wetter too in central va. the current radar in texas is juicy and at least from eyes doesn't look like it wants to go due east...i've seen worse trajectories. gonna be a close call...we still have time to make a late game run imo. it helps that the overnight model discussion stated: HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET REVERSED THAT TREND AND HAVE STRENGTHENED THIS SYSTEM ALOFT...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING A CLOSED 700 HPA LOW INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...NO LONGER LOOKING AS ELONGATED. current water vapor loop (storm is commencing): http://www.goes.noaa...LOOPS/ecwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 well nam came north a little bit. looks like it's a matter of how well these systems phase. i don't know whether we want the northern energy to speed up or the southern energy to slow down, but from reading the discussions it seems like that is the situation. the 6z nam came north for sure at hr 42...has the 0.1" line up to dc now whereas the 0z had it down near fredericksburg. looks a little wetter too in central va. the current radar in texas is juicy and at least from eyes doesn't look like it wants to go due east...i've seen worse trajectories. gonna be a close call...we still have time to make a late game run imo. it helps that the overnight model discussion stated: HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET REVERSED THAT TREND AND HAVE STRENGTHENED THIS SYSTEM ALOFT...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING A CLOSED 700 HPA LOW INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...NO LONGER LOOKING AS ELONGATED. current water vapor loop (storm is commencing): http://www.goes.noaa...LOOPS/ecwv.html I "think" the interplay between the s/w dropping south from western NEB and the southern trough will be the key depicted clearly on this wv loop the 6z models and RUC have that stronger than what they were showing yesterday and on the 0Z runs (but for the Euro) http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Tony Pann (WBAL) on his Facebook Page: OK...you have to jump in the pool at some point, so here goes: I know that most of the modeling has this storm missing Baltimore to the south...but, I have a suspicion that it won’t. I’m going to jump in with a cannon ball: It starts in the afternoon on Sunday, and ends overnight...most accumulations will wait until near or after sunset. 3” to 6” for the Baltimore Metro Area, 1”to 3” near the PA Line, and a stripe of 4” to 8” across Southern MD and parts of the Lower Eastern Shore. You might as well go down swinging! Below is the 03z run of the SERF..that clearly has us in the precip (valid Sunday Evening) I reserve the right to update this forecast at the last moment.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Tony Pann (WBAL) on his Facebook Page: first, all the SREF runs had us in snow, so that's nothing new second, Tony's not a met, but he certainly can read models like the rest of us he's banking on a shift north, also like many have suggested I wouldn't get excited over his prediction, however, because if the models today shift south again he'll change it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'm sucked back in. Another day of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I "think" the interplay between the s/w dropping south from western NEB and the southern trough will be the key depicted clearly on this wv loop the 6z models and RUC have that stronger than what they were showing yesterday and on the 0Z runs (but for the Euro) http://www.ssd.noaa....s/flash-wv.html yea that's what i'm focusing on as well. i'm not too focused on the precip down in louisiana. i'm assuming all of that is gonna slide off to our south. i feel like the models have been showing that signature you mentioned for a while, which should determine how far north the precip on our doorstep goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Thanks randy for posting that in the models thread. It was getting difficult to read through some of the banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 first, all the SREF runs had us in snow, so that's nothing new second, Tony's not a met, but he certainly can read models like the rest of us he's banking on a shift north, also like many have suggested I wouldn't get excited over his prediction, however, because if the models today shift south again he'll change it Wait, what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Thanks randy for posting that in the models thread. It was getting difficult to read through some of the banter. there's barely 3 pages of posts in that thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Wait, what? That's wrong he earned a BS in meteorology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 first, all the SREF runs had us in snow, so that's nothing new second, Tony's not a met, but he certainly can read models like the rest of us he's banking on a shift north, also like many have suggested I wouldn't get excited over his prediction, however, because if the models today shift south again he'll change it He's got a degree in meteorology from Northern Illinois U. so he's as much as a met as I am....heck maybe more since he still is actually working in the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Wait, what? Totally uncool that you deleted my well wishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Don't know what's going to happen with the rest of the NAM, but watching the precip shield crawl tomorrow is going to be brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 He's got a degree in meteorology from Northern Illinois U. so he's as much as a met as I am....heck maybe more since he still is actually working in the field. Well, then is he letting his inner weenie take over, or is he on to something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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