usedtobe Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 if this fails there are so many awesome posts that were made to bump alas ill skip but i wish there was a way to keep score here If the Euro holds or even the new NAM holds I hope it puts to rest the idea that all storms end up trending north and staying there. I think such events are little more common than the reverse but suspect that our memories play tricks on us and we don't remember the ones like this one that abort 48hr ahead of time. Instead we remember the Jan 30, 2010 events where we gget a nice storm. Too bad no stats are kept about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I need a new hobby asap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I need a new hobby asap As Ian likes to say, the weather is very humbling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I need a new hobby asap Stick to weather.....I've tried golf, coins and now photography. Weather will make you drink while the others make you poor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 If the Euro holds or even the new NAM holds I hope it puts to rest the idea that all storms end up trending north and staying there. I think such events are little more common than the reverse but suspect that our memories play tricks on us and we don't remember the ones like this one that abort 48hr ahead of time. Instead we remember the Jan 30, 2010 events where we gget a nice storm. Too bad no stats are kept about that. exactly. north trend storms are probably more memorable in the jan 30 case as well as the case where they trend further north and slam someone else (the snow guys up north are much more annoying than the ones who rarely get it south, not to mention it often ends up rain when south). im an ardent believer in the north trend over history.. i think i've made up a 9 of 10 stat in the past. but it definitely does not happen all the time and probably less than we think as you point to. this year it just doesnt want to snow here. that's not to say it never will or can't but it doesnt want to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The computers are smarter than us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 gfs mos is near 60 tomorrow.. nam is mid 50s and usually runs cool. with sw wind it could do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 A good rule of thumb is that the models will usually trend to whatever gives DC the least amount of snow...keep that in mind, only look at the Euro, and drink lots of scotch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I need a new hobby asap Sometimes I don't know if this is a hobby or just a sick obsession. Perhaps it's both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It's feeling like this is/was our last shot of the winter. Gets pretty mild next week and looking very mild the week after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 what if the gfs is good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 what if the gfs is good? Luckily it's not very good through 24HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Luckily it's not very good through 24HR. errors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 what if the gfs is good? 0% chance that's happening. Fixing me up a nice martini now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The low is a little NW of the 18Z at 30HR, but the surface depiction is pretty wimpy. The northern edge is shredded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The low is a little NW of the 18Z at 30HR, but the surface depiction is pretty wimpy. The northern edge is shredded. it looks pretty bad.. hopefully some southern al/ga towns get ripped up for our snow misfortunes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Slower like the NAM. I doubt anyone will like this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 GFS will suck less. It's the suicide prevention hotline's olive branch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Partly sunny on Sunday ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Way south. Total whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 still a wildcard to have the big ole blob of moisture in a good line to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Really warm at the surface now. RIC is not getting a snowstorm out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Radar is gonna hurt Sunday afternoon. Lots of radar hallucinations galore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 A good rule of thumb is that the models will usually trend to whatever gives DC the least amount of snow...keep that in mind, only look at the Euro, and drink lots of scotch. Not a bad plan. Which reminds me, I have a nice bottle of single malt still sitting in the liquor cabinet somewhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 ouch The 850mb low gets up into the Smokies in TN, and then moves south of east from 42-48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The 850mb low gets up into the Smokies in TN, and then moves south of east from 42-48 hrs. it's weird to look at the precip loops because you swear it's going ot at least graze then it just books east / se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 See yall tomorrow for another round of failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 cherry blossom festival coming early this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 it's weird to look at the precip loops because you swear it's going ot at least graze then it just books east / se. It's a really weird progression to me. I guess I found it so hard to believe because the confluence just didn't seem so oppressive that it would make the low start heading due east (and even a touch south of east on this run) in freaking middle Georgia while temps here are in the upper 30s to 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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