BristowWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Sorry. I meant Jan 29, 2010. In the end, does it really matter? It would be gone by Tuesday anyway. True. Almost 60 by Wednesday. This just blows and I told my kids we would go sledding promising them at least an inch on Sunday. Didn't set the bar low enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 000 FXUS61 KLWX 180253 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 953 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012 .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... WE HV A WINT STORM WTCH IN EFFECT SUNDAY/SUN NGT FOR THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY. 12Z ECM AND 18Z GFS BOTH SHOW THE SFC LOW POSN OVR CENTRAL AL AT 12Z SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH MID ALTC WAS 7 DEGS ABV NRML TDA AND WL LKLY DO SO AGN SAT THE SHORT WV COMING THRU THE NERN U.S. SAT NGT WL HERALD THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRES FM ONTARIO NOSING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLC. THIS WL PROVIDE THE COLD AIR THAT ALLOWS US TO TREAT THE SERN LOW AS A PTNL SNOW EVENT RATHER THAN RAIN. FOR NOW THOSE TWO MDLS RMN IN NEAR LOCK STEP W/ THE TRACK OF THE LOW - OVR ERN GA ERLY SUN AFTN AND NEAR CAPE HATTERAS SUN EVE. THE LOW PRES CENTER VALUES AND UPR LVL HGT PATTERN ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL AS WELL. BOTH HV THE LOW WELL E OF THE NC CST BY 06Z MON. SNOWFALL AMOUNT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THE WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE AREAS. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FM S TO N. THE FARTHER N WE GO IN THE CWA THE MORE PRBL POPS WL BE "A GOOD CHC OF JUST A SMALL AMT OF SNOW." THERE ARE THINGS THAT CONCERN ME W/ THIS UPCOMING STORM...THE TRACK OF THE STORM BEING THE GREATEST - THE FURTHER S IT TRACKS THE LESS MOISTURE MID ATLC WL HV TO WORK W/. OTHERS ITEMS OF CONCERN INCLUDE: A) THE AMT OF TIME THAT THE STORM WL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SNOW - PRBLY ONLY ABT 18HRS AT ANY ONE SPOT DUE TO THE TRANSITORY NATURE OF THE LOW. LOW SNOW:LIQUID RATIO - THIS WL LKLY BE A WET COMPACTIBLE SNOW. C) YET ANOTHER IS THE FACT THAT SPC HAS A DAY 2 SVR WX OUTLOOK ACROSS GA/SC - I`VE SEEN CASES WHERE CNVCTN ACROSS THE GULF STATES HAS ROBBED MOISTURE FOR THE MID ATLC. 15Z SREF ALSO IMPLYING THE BEST CHCS FOR SIG ACCUM WL BE ACROSS SRN VA. SO WHILE THE WTCH IS IN EFFECT ATTM I DON`T SEE A NEED TO XTND THIS FURTHER N. ATTM...IF ANY AREA HAS THE PTNL FOR 5" (WTCH CRITERIA) IT IS DFNTLY THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY. **00Z NAM AND 21Z SREF HV COME IN. THESE CHG NOTHING FM THE THOUGHTS WRITTEN ABV AN HOUR AGO - THE BEST MOISTURE FOR THE STORM IS OVR GA/CAROLINAS/PSBLY INTO SRN VA...LESSGER AMTS FURTHER N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I guess the best day of this winter was Thursday morning when the euro had given .70 to .80 to the area. Too bad it was only one run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I guess the best day of this winter was Thursday morning when the euro had given .70 to .80 to the area. Too bad it was only one run if this fails there are so many awesome posts that were made to bump alas ill skip but i wish there was a way to keep score here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 if this fails there are so many awesome posts that were made to bump alas ill skip but i wish there was a way to keep score here funny part is when the euro first showed this storm about 8-9 days ago...it had it doing what its doing now...heading ENE of the carolina coast and barely missing us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 if this fails there are so many awesome posts that were made to bump alas ill skip but i wish there was a way to keep score here I was endorsing DT's first guess last night -1 WVclimo . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 if this fails there are so many awesome posts that were made to bump alas ill skip but i wish there was a way to keep score here If the Euro holds or even the new NAM holds I hope it puts to rest the idea that all storms end up trending north and staying there. I think such events are little more common than the reverse but suspect that our memories play tricks on us and we don't remember the ones like this one that abort 48hr ahead of time. Instead we remember the Jan 30, 2010 events where we gget a nice storm. Too bad no stats are kept about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I need a new hobby asap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I need a new hobby asap As Ian likes to say, the weather is very humbling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I need a new hobby asap Stick to weather.....I've tried golf, coins and now photography. Weather will make you drink while the others make you poor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 If the Euro holds or even the new NAM holds I hope it puts to rest the idea that all storms end up trending north and staying there. I think such events are little more common than the reverse but suspect that our memories play tricks on us and we don't remember the ones like this one that abort 48hr ahead of time. Instead we remember the Jan 30, 2010 events where we gget a nice storm. Too bad no stats are kept about that. exactly. north trend storms are probably more memorable in the jan 30 case as well as the case where they trend further north and slam someone else (the snow guys up north are much more annoying than the ones who rarely get it south, not to mention it often ends up rain when south). im an ardent believer in the north trend over history.. i think i've made up a 9 of 10 stat in the past. but it definitely does not happen all the time and probably less than we think as you point to. this year it just doesnt want to snow here. that's not to say it never will or can't but it doesnt want to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The computers are smarter than us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 gfs mos is near 60 tomorrow.. nam is mid 50s and usually runs cool. with sw wind it could do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 A good rule of thumb is that the models will usually trend to whatever gives DC the least amount of snow...keep that in mind, only look at the Euro, and drink lots of scotch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I need a new hobby asap Sometimes I don't know if this is a hobby or just a sick obsession. Perhaps it's both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It's feeling like this is/was our last shot of the winter. Gets pretty mild next week and looking very mild the week after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 what if the gfs is good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 what if the gfs is good? Luckily it's not very good through 24HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Luckily it's not very good through 24HR. errors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 what if the gfs is good? 0% chance that's happening. Fixing me up a nice martini now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The low is a little NW of the 18Z at 30HR, but the surface depiction is pretty wimpy. The northern edge is shredded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The low is a little NW of the 18Z at 30HR, but the surface depiction is pretty wimpy. The northern edge is shredded. it looks pretty bad.. hopefully some southern al/ga towns get ripped up for our snow misfortunes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Slower like the NAM. I doubt anyone will like this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 GFS will suck less. It's the suicide prevention hotline's olive branch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Partly sunny on Sunday ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Way south. Total whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 still a wildcard to have the big ole blob of moisture in a good line to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Really warm at the surface now. RIC is not getting a snowstorm out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Radar is gonna hurt Sunday afternoon. Lots of radar hallucinations galore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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