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2012 Winter Banter Thread #3


yoda

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OK, the stage is set. This is so much like 2010 its uncanny. Same runs, same time frame. If history is to repeat, the GFS will be even worse than the NAM. Then we start to see improvement with the morning runs.

Laugh, but its all we've got at this point.

I just knew it would be you saying this

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Well, now that the nam has me in a bad mood I gotta say a couple things..ctsnowdouche is like fingernails on a blackboard and there is an unusual # of new names in the sub forum that just annoy me worse than a mosquito in my boxers.

I can totally handle not getting snow. Heck. I'm used to that. I can't handle the heavy dose of posts that make reading a 900 page book of bb's drivel feel better than reading a ny times bestseller.

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This is all I have left, but guess it's enough to keep me awake for the GFS. The discussion issued 24 hours ago by LWX. No need to read the entire thing, but this stood out for me then, and I am hugging it for at least another 90 minutes ----They wrote, "ONE THING IS FOR SURE...GUIDANCE WILL FLUCTUATE AND THE FORECAST WILL OSCILLATE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. STAY TUNED." lol.

http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off

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Tweet from Capital Weather? Seems like Wes threw in towel, but I guess not everyone

Capital Weather Gang @capitalweather

"Tonight's NAM does NOT mean snow threat done, just 1 model run. Storm still 36-42 hours away, time yet for another big swing..."

I don't know that I completely think we no longer have any chance of snow....it's just that 0-2 inch events are not worth worrying about.

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:lol: Sorry. I meant Jan 29, 2010.

In the end, does it really matter? It would be gone by Tuesday anyway.

True. Almost 60 by Wednesday. This just blows and I told my kids we would go sledding promising them at least an inch on Sunday. Didn't set the bar low enough.

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000

FXUS61 KLWX 180253

AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

953 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

WE HV A WINT STORM WTCH IN EFFECT SUNDAY/SUN NGT FOR THE CENTRAL

SHEN VLLY. 12Z ECM AND 18Z GFS BOTH SHOW THE SFC LOW POSN OVR

CENTRAL AL AT 12Z SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH MID ALTC WAS 7 DEGS ABV NRML

TDA AND WL LKLY DO SO AGN SAT THE SHORT WV COMING THRU THE NERN

U.S. SAT NGT WL HERALD THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRES FM ONTARIO NOSING

DOWN INTO THE MID ATLC. THIS WL PROVIDE THE COLD AIR THAT ALLOWS US TO

TREAT THE SERN LOW AS A PTNL SNOW EVENT RATHER THAN RAIN.

FOR NOW THOSE TWO MDLS RMN IN NEAR LOCK STEP W/ THE TRACK OF THE

LOW - OVR ERN GA ERLY SUN AFTN AND NEAR CAPE HATTERAS SUN EVE.

THE LOW PRES CENTER VALUES AND UPR LVL HGT PATTERN ARE NEARLY

IDENTICAL AS WELL. BOTH HV THE LOW WELL E OF THE NC CST BY 06Z

MON.

SNOWFALL AMOUNT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THE WASHINGTON DC AND

BALTIMORE AREAS. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FM S

TO N. THE FARTHER N WE GO IN THE CWA THE MORE PRBL POPS WL BE "A GOOD

CHC OF JUST A SMALL AMT OF SNOW."

THERE ARE THINGS THAT CONCERN ME W/ THIS UPCOMING STORM...THE

TRACK OF THE STORM BEING THE GREATEST - THE FURTHER S IT TRACKS

THE LESS MOISTURE MID ATLC WL HV TO WORK W/.

OTHERS ITEMS OF CONCERN INCLUDE:

A) THE AMT OF TIME THAT THE STORM WL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SNOW -

PRBLY ONLY ABT 18HRS AT ANY ONE SPOT DUE TO THE TRANSITORY NATURE

OF THE LOW.

B) LOW SNOW:LIQUID RATIO - THIS WL LKLY BE A WET COMPACTIBLE

SNOW.

C) YET ANOTHER IS THE FACT THAT SPC HAS A DAY 2 SVR WX OUTLOOK

ACROSS GA/SC - I`VE SEEN CASES WHERE CNVCTN ACROSS THE GULF STATES

HAS ROBBED MOISTURE FOR THE MID ATLC.

15Z SREF ALSO IMPLYING THE BEST CHCS FOR SIG ACCUM WL BE ACROSS

SRN VA.

SO WHILE THE WTCH IS IN EFFECT ATTM I DON`T SEE A NEED TO XTND

THIS FURTHER N. ATTM...IF ANY AREA HAS THE PTNL FOR 5" (WTCH

CRITERIA) IT IS DFNTLY THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.

**00Z NAM AND 21Z SREF HV COME IN. THESE CHG NOTHING FM THE THOUGHTS

WRITTEN ABV AN HOUR AGO - THE BEST MOISTURE FOR THE STORM IS OVR

GA/CAROLINAS/PSBLY INTO SRN VA...LESSGER AMTS FURTHER N.

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I guess the best day of this winter was Thursday morning when the euro had given .70 to .80 to the area. Too bad it was only one run

if this fails there are so many awesome posts that were made to bump

alas ill skip but i wish there was a way to keep score here :P

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if this fails there are so many awesome posts that were made to bump

alas ill skip but i wish there was a way to keep score here :P

funny part is when the euro first showed this storm about 8-9 days ago...it had it doing what its doing now...heading ENE of the carolina coast and barely missing us

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