nj2va Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well.... EURO scored the coup as of now Wow, I hadn't realized the storm already started at your school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well.... EURO scored the coup as of now Go pound some protein shakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I never should have given up booze before a La Nina winter.... You made me laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 If the RGEM verifies and Richmond out snows us this year then ... then ... seriously that can't really happen can it? Has Richmond ever gotten more snow than DCA in a year? Just from a quick glance at climo stats, RIC finished with more snow than DCA in 2010-2011, 01-02, 97-98, 82-83, 79-80, 76-77, 72-73, 70-71, 68-69, 65-66, 64-65, 61-62, 59-60 and 58-59. There are obviously more in the preceding decades as well. It used to occur more frequently but never really on a regular basis if you look at all the data. In short, it's definitely not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Holy sensitive, geezus lmao. Matt the pattern has clearly gotten to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 A lot are not quitting yet or at all keith. You had the whole team not quitting-- DeSean Needed blockers when they came back against the Giants. It's you and a few strays. I think I read a post where Wes said -- Ah, Screw it, I'm done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orangewx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 anyone notice the new radar out of LWX? what's that, the new 3D radar? http://www.srh.noaa....12890625&zoom=7 seems similar to TWC radar, atleast on the app that came with my droid. meh, will take some time getting use too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I think I like 1-2 dc north and 2-4 south of town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I think when it's all said and done, this will be a surprise overachiever. DCA to get 2-4 and points south 4-6. I feel a slight trend to the north by the EURO will show up starting tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I think I like 1-2 dc north and 2-4 south of town That's more of less my thinking though I'd love to be wrong on the high side. I could see us getting no accumulations so I might be tempted to put out a t-2 inch or DC and north and a 2-4 to the southwest and maybe 1-3 where I live though I think I might struggle to get the high end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I think I like 1-2 dc north and 2-4 south of town Ec had me worried down here-- .4 qpf at 33 over 12 hours isn't going to accumulate well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 That's more of less my thinking though I'd love to be wrong on the high side. I could see us getting no accumulations so I might be tempted to put out a t-2 inch or DC and north and a 2-4 to the southwest and maybe 1-3 where I live though I think I might struggle to get the high end. The NAM will get the 1" line to DC tonight. Book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Ec had me worried down here-- .4 qpf at 33 over 12 hours isn't going to accumulate well. For some reason, I have a feeling if this turns out to be a total dud up here, it's also going to underwhelming in Richmond/Virginia. Could be a situation where everyone ends up with 1 to 2 inches, us for lack of precip, downstate for Temps, with the exception of Southwest Virginia. But not yet completely ruling a more favorable solution for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 For christ's sake take the weenie out of your mind for five minutes... EURO had the south idea originally and the consensus right now is south.. so the model has the coup AS OF NOW.. as I said. Jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The NAM will get the 1" line to DC tonight. Book it! I like your optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 That's more of less my thinking though I'd love to be wrong on the high side. I could see us getting no accumulations so I might be tempted to put out a t-2 inch or DC and north and a 2-4 to the southwest and maybe 1-3 where I live though I think I might struggle to get the high end. Wes, I'm just curious here. Obviously the trends are bad and expectations have been set reasonably low. Considering that our only chance at getting more than a couple of inches comes from the n&w precip shield, is there anything tangible that can go in our favor at this point? reason I'm asking is that there has been some decent solutions with the shield being pretty darn wet in tn and wv. Is there anything I can watch on the models to that would indicate that the nw side of the storm may potentially end up being better organized and stronger or is that part pretty much set in stone at this point? It's seems a shame to think that we got this close after such a long wait this year and it's going to miss us to the s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I think I like 1-2 dc north and 2-4 south of town A very fair call. I want to see tonight and tomorrows 12z guidance though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I feel so much better about this storm now that there's a met from Lyndon, VT, clearing things up for us in the discussion thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The NAM will get the 1" line to DC tonight. Book it! Choose from the following - combine any three for the prize: - Gut instinct - Just that "feeling" - Inevitable north trend - Init. errors - Looks "off" to your untrained eye - Looks "off" to your trained eye - HPC threw it out - Euro isn't really good inside 72 hours - New data from the GFS will be incorporated into the NAM which in turn feeds into the SREFS - h5 doesn't support the surface - Northern stream enhancement supports the tropospheric warming of the MDC layer resulting in a frontogenic lift of the ultimate sort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Choose from the following - combine any three for the prize: - Gut instinct - Just that "feeling" - Inevitable north trend - Init. errors - Looks "off" to your untrained eye - Looks "off" to your trained eye - HPC threw it out - Euro isn't really good inside 72 hours - New data from the GFS will be incorporated into the NAM which in turn feeds into the SREFS - h5 doesn't support the surface - Northern stream enhancement supports the tropospheric warming of the MDC layer resulting in a frontogenic lift of the ultimate sort I choose: - Gut instinct - Inevitable north trend - Looks "off" to your (semi)trained eye What's my prize again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I choose: - Gut instinct - Inevitable north trend - Looks "off" to your (semi)trained eye What's my prize again? A pretty big forecast bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 For some reason, I have a feeling if this turns out to be a total dud up here, it's also going to underwhelming in Richmond/Virginia. Could be a situation where everyone ends up with 1 to 2 inches, us for lack of precip, downstate for Temps, with the exception of Southwest Virginia. But not yet completely ruling a more favorable solution for everyone Thanks for keeping it real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 A pretty big forecast bust Well if it were to happen then yes, it would be a bust. However, I'm still confident with my forecast and am willing to stick my neck out there and not model hug this system (yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I choose: - Gut instinct - Inevitable north trend - Looks "off" to your (semi)trained eye What's my prize again? It was sort of like that game on the playground where the kid would yell "mystery box" and throw the ball. You thought it would contain the Euro, only the JMA was inside. Actually, in this case, flipping those would be more relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I guess I should also add that Corpus Christi had ground equip problems and couldn't get a balloon up in two tries...so no 00Z sounding from them. There's pretty good coverage down there and the flow is fairly uni-directional in that area so might not matter too much. EDIT: I see data up to 825 mb before the flight terminated...so it's not nothing... Another choice for the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It was sort of like that game on the playground where the kid would yell "mystery box" and throw the ball - you thought it would contain the Euro. Instead, the JMA was inside. Actually, in this case, flipping those would be more relevant. But every once in a while someone is nice and it contains the NAM... And the game is called 500 or Jackpot FYI.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yes! Ohleary has provided a scapegoat in case the models don't show what we want. Whew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Living in NYC has made me aware of the positive benefits of the N trend much more frequently... in this case it's actually great for DC. It has happened with every storm this winter and I don't think this will be an exception; I like 4-6" for McLean, with the potential for those #'s to bust low, not high. Mock me all you want but these situations don't typically turn out bad for us, and I would expect a jog north on the models tonight into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yes! Ohleary has provided a scapegoat in case the models don't show what we want. Whew. ahh yes Jan 25 2000 in the making thats what happened then here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 ahh yes Jan 25 2000 in the making thats what happened then here we go Correct me if I am wrong cause was in southern Virginia at the time. But if I recall correctly, March 2009 was also suppose to be a southern Virginia snowstorm that crept north at the last minute. I remember we were suppose to get our only snow of the year near Richmond. We did, like 6 to 9 inches, but DC also got 6 to 9 when they were not suppose to until the final day before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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