nj2va Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 1-3" looks a safe bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The WSW text for Tucker county, WV seems bullish. It says snow accumulations of 6 inches or more. I know the elevation is 3-4k in spots. Will elevation up there enhance the banding? Or just lead to higher rates/better stickage? Or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 1-3" looks a safe bet. I think the NAM holds serve tonight, it will be hard to just dismiss it again. It will mark 24-hour where the NAM has essentially showed 5 or more inches in DC. How often has the NAM been that consistent for four straight runs 48 hours before a storm and bust severely? Anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think the NAM holds serve tonight, it will be hard to just dismiss it again. It will mark 24-hour where the NAM has essentially showed 5 or more inches in DC. How often has the NAM been that consistent for four straight runs 48 hours before a storm and bust severely? Anyone know? very often.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 That does it...saying Trace-2" here with the low end probably working out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 very often.... Yeah, I could easily see the NAM hold out until Sunday and then suddenly jump 300 miles south and join the rest of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Tom says precip starts around 6pm Sunday.... But he does says if the storm holds the track, would be 3-6 inches. He did say it is a big if Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/241177-1-for-the-season-thru-11012/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 i only need thundersnow for about 6 hours.. no reason to think that's not doable. plus the upward migration of the stratospheric barrel wave suggests amplification of the GDPO index AND THATS A GOOD THING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Tom says precip starts around 6pm Sunday.... But he does says if the storm holds the track, would be 3-6 inches. He did say it is a big if That makes it sound more reasonable, but he seems to really be counting on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I never should have given up booze before a La Nina winter.... You have been spot on the entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 12z Euro final call next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 ranges are probably high. not all the liquid would accumulate but they seem to indicate it would. storm will be elevation favored etc like every other one this year. Ian, can you tell me how I can find archived model images. If I wanted, for example, the gfs from Jan 1, 2009 at 12z, is there a site I can access that from without being a top of the line computer programmer/hacker? I tried to PM you, but that's a no go. Anyone else? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Ian, can you tell me how I can find archived model images. If I wanted, for example, the gfs from Jan 1, 2009 at 12z, is there a site I can access that from without being a top of the line computer programmer/hacker? I tried to PM you, but that's a no go. Anyone else? Thanks. This could do it http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/ncdc-ui/define-collection.pl?model_sys=gfs-hi&model_name=gfs&grid_name=3 Try this for more stuff: http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data.php#hires_weather_datasets'>http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data.php#hires_weather_datasets And this for even more: http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 12z Euro final call next The first "next", 48 before the "event" even starts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Why do people like ctsnowstorm feel the need to post in our model threads? If this event was in his backyard I guaranty he would say the nam is more right than the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I never should have given up booze before a La Nina winter given this hobby.... fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This could do it http://nomads.ncdc.n...gfs&grid_name=3 Try this for more stuff: http://nomads.ncdc.n...eather_datasets And this for even more: http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data.php I had already been there, but can't figure out how to get images. Any tips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well.... EURO scored the coup as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The Euro has nailed most of this storm, so why stray from that? It has nailed the s/w evolution considerably compared to other models and continues to differ by offering paltry qpf on the order of 0.10" or less for DCA. I could see the precip shield being slightly north of the Euro's current depiction, but not anything like the NAM . Going D-2" at BWI, 2-4" DC, and 4-8" for areas NW of RIC. This snow will be falling onto ground that was 55F in days prior, and 2m temps will be marginal. If DC gets over 4" I'd be extremely surprised. wrong. the ground initialized wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Why do people like ctsnowstorm feel the need to post in our model threads? If this event was in his backyard I guaranty he would say the nam is more right than the euro. the only thing that rubs me the wrong way about some NE posters in their entitlement mentality I mean, yeah, climo says you get more snow, but that doesn't entitle you to more snow of those in the entitlement group are the "crash and burners" like ctsnowstorm who will go out of his way to try to deliver bad feelings in different areas/forums I've never put anyone on "ignore" but that doesn't mean I can't still ignore him/her Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I was in the Philly thread and Joe Bastardi is running with the JMA saying wash to Philly get 6 or more inches LOL! http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/170568091560972288/photo/1/large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Why do people like ctsnowstorm feel the need to post in our model threads? If this event was in his backyard I guaranty he would say the nam is more right than the euro. They know our climo better than us i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I never should have given up booze before a La Nina winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well.... EURO scored the coup as of now How can anything score anything before the event has even started? Not saying its not going to be right, but let's wait for it to be over to judge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Bunch of quitting babies up there-- If I recall correctly, it was shear will power that pulled Jan 30, 10 NORTH to DC-- NC thought they had a 10-15 inch snowfall and most got 3-5 and then SLEET. Quitters. Get on bad winter-- and BAM, quitters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well.... EURO scored the coup as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Bunch of quitting babies up there-- If I recall correctly, it was shear will power that pulled Jan 30, 10 NORTH to DC-- NC thought they had a 10-15 inch snowfall and most got 3-5 and then SLEET. Quitters. Get on bad winter-- and BAM, quitters. A lot are not quitting yet or at all keith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well.... EURO scored the coup as of now What changed in the last hour? Did something outside the UKIE come into good agreement with the Euro (In terms of precip shield?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 anyone notice the new radar out of LWX? what's that, the new 3D radar? http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/ridgenew2/?rid=NAT&pid=N0Q&lat=39.25304169051755&lon=-78.30712890625&zoom=7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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