ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 What is it with all the Balt Mets? Bad ratings syndrome? He is by far the best TV Met in our area and is usually VERY conservative, this actually gives me hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So damn close i think the next 2 runs will be telling...would be pretty sweet to see even the slightest of jogs (or steps) north...we don't need much...it's literally right on our doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Bullish. Yup. Hopefully it's something that he knows and we don't, since he's usually pretty good (except for 1/26 last year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The 12z Euro kept the s/w's pretty separate in the deep south towards 60 hours. One lobe was in NE TN, the other sheared along the NC/SC coast. The 12z GFS had the energy pretty much together swinging along the S TN border all the way into/up around the VA Capes. The 18z GFS moved much closer to the Euro look with this feature. Based on that I wouldn't bet against the Euro. There's always those instances where the Euro may be wrong in this close, but seeing the GFS break that way would have me taking notice. Anyway good luck down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Congrats on your entry into the snow hope gang Thank you. I feel honored to be part of that group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yup. Hopefully it's something that he knows and we don't, since he's usually pretty good (except for 1/26 last year). That is the only time i remember him being wrong in the past 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Kinda interesting that HPC's probability of >4" snow went up for our area. This morning it was the 10%, now its 40%. I wish I could go back to the earlier map, but I'm sure it increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So almost every model has DC with at least 0.25. Time to make the 1-3 call and hope for better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'm more worried about not getting rates if we fringe. I think were ok for snow but if it's 36 and snow it's less ideal than 33 and snow. 32 line pretty much over my house so I'll take my dusting and like it. DC? Eh, look on the bright side. At least you won't have to shovel anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Tommy T thinks 3-6 for MD, DC and some of VA I may be banned for mentioning them, but Accuweather is also sticking with 3 to 6 for DC. Looks like they updated their forecast map at 2 p.m., after the Euro. But we all know they may be going high for ratings and hits, since DC is a pretty large Metro area while Richmond is not, so the DC headline draws more web traffic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I may be banned for mentioning them, but Accuweather is also sticking with 3 to 6 for DC. Looks like they updated their forecast map at 2 p.m., after the Euro. But we all know they may be going high for ratings and hits, since DC is a pretty large Metro area while Richmond is not, so the DC headline draws more web traffic. A bit bullish, yes, but not off the wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yeah, tonight is the line in the sand. Somebody will blink or fold. My bet's on the NAM folding. idk- maybe i'm just trying too hard because this winter has been pretty much.....not a winter. We need to pray that the nw precip shield is stronger and more organized by the time it rolls through. 850 track is fine for the most part. I think the line won't be drawn officially until 12z tomorrow or maybe even later than that. Otherwise we can hire a crew to head to the top of snowshoe, seed the clouds with silver iodide, and boil a couple million gallons of water. It's going to be expensive though. Better turn on the donate button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Whatever happened on January 30 2010 needs to happen again here. Magic charms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Whatever happened on January 30 2010 needs to happen again here. Magic charms? Sadly this ain't 09-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Whatever happened on January 30 2010 needs to happen again here. Magic charms? nah, magic mushrooms. I'll resort to hallucinating my 3-5" if I have too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 6-12 seems reasonable imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Whatever happened on January 30 2010 needs to happen again here. Magic charms? went back and looked at what forecasts were two days ahead of time for Jan 30. Frankly, we are in a better position now then we were then. Capital Weather Gang archives on Washington Post -- a great resource - indicate those guys were thinking less than an inch in DC two days ahead of time. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/01/it_will_snow_but_where_and_how.html http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/01/update_on_the_edge_of_no_snow.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 6-12 seems reasonable imby BB, is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 6-12 seems reasonable imby I see you already scored some mushrooms. clown maps are my faves. the colors man....the colors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 6-12 seems reasonable imby We don't use Metric is this country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 BB, is that you? i only need thundersnow for about 6 hours.. no reason to think that's not doable. plus the upward migration of the stratospheric barrel wave suggests amplification of the GDPO index AND THATS A GOOD THING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 We don't use Metric is this country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
insanegrenade Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I just saw NBC4 and they think the storm isn't that big and that DC might get a dusting but that could change. Huh? Why are they saying that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 3" IMBY yard...final call.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I just saw NBC4 and they think the storm isn't that big and that DC might get a dusting but that could change. Huh? Why are they saying that? NBC 4 said that? What gives them that idea? Do they only subscribe to the Euro there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 A bit bullish, yes, but not off the wall It really isn't all that bullish if you assume the GFS and NAM are correct, which tons of media outlets do all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I never should have given up booze before a La Nina winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It really isn't all that bullish if you assume the GFS and NAM are correct, which tons of media outlets do all the time. ranges are probably high. not all the liquid would accumulate but they seem to indicate it would. storm will be elevation favored etc like every other one this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 ranges are probably high. not all the liquid would accumulate but they seem to indicate it would. storm will be elevation favored etc like every other one this year. This will look like a late March flizzrd that does not stick to concrete. Maybe some slush on grass? Without decent rates there is no way any of this sticks in the 1-3 zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 ranges are probably high. not all the liquid would accumulate but they seem to indicate it would. storm will be elevation favored etc like every other one this year. Yeah, I assume it'd be better to portray 2-4 rather than 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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