baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The RGEM seems to always show the snowiest solution possible. A very general bias amongst the RGEM is it has a tendency to be very "amped" under stronger magnitude systems although the bias isn't as bad as the NAM sometimes. It can be highly useful with very intense systems (think Groundshog Day Feb 1 2011...it was the best guidance within day 2). I do, once again, under general guidelines, think thr RGEM is a much better numerical model than the NAM, but it is prolly a bit too intense here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 put your faith in the short range models bro...this is why they were built..for 24-36 hour forecasting. In NAM,RGEM i trust Going down with the ship. Admirable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 ddweatherman algorithm:IF>GFS is solid hitTHEN>NO errors in model or int.IF>GFS further south<AND/OR>>GFS shows sharp cutoff >SOUTH of ddweathermanTHEN>GFS has int. errors OR convective feedback OR missing ROAB data OR GFS node infected by ILOVEYOU virus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 FWIW, 18z RGEM (only goes out to 48) 36 hrs -- 1003 mb L SW MS 42 hrs -- 999 mb L NW AL 48 hrs -- 998 mb extreme SE TN with what looks to be a transfer going on No need to say FWIW anymore, yoda. You are gonna post em regardless. It's cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 ddweatherman algorithm: IF >GFS is solid hit THEN >NO errors in model or int. IF >GFS further south <AND/OR> >GFS shows sharp cutoff >SOUTH of ddweatherman THEN >GFS has int. errors OR convective feedback OR missing ROAB data OR GFS node infected by ILOVEYOU virus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 LOL who am I kidding, the GFS is going to look horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 No need to say FWIW anymore, yoda. You are gonna post em regardless. It's cool I forgot to compare to 12z so that Randy knows every single mile it moved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 No need to say FWIW anymore, yoda. You are gonna post em regardless. It's cool He should mix it up a little with the occasional "BTW" or "FYI." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 FWIW, the RGEm does look like it would be a solid blow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 ddweatherman algorithm: IF >GFS is solid hit THEN >NO errors in model or int. IF >GFS further south <AND/OR> >GFS shows sharp cutoff >SOUTH of ddweatherman THEN >GFS has int. errors OR convective feedback OR missing ROAB data OR GFS node infected by ILOVEYOU virus. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 FWIW, the RGEm does look like it would be a solid blow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 He should mix it up a little with the occasional "BTW" or "FYI." i shall try that with the 00z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 You see what I did there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 FWIW, the RGEm does look like it would be a solid blow here. i solid blow is better than 1" of sadness, amirite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 FWIW, the RGEm does look like it would be a solid blow here. dont all models look like that at 48 before they transfer... fall apart and dry up like Marcus _ _ _ _ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 At least Yoda can take his ribbing in stride, I'll give him that much. FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 i solid blow is better than 1" of sadness, amirite? Indeed. It's either 4" or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 FWIW, the RGEm does look like it would be a solid blow here. Once it hits the confluence it will straight up blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 we won't have 10:1 ratios thru the event.. maybe in solid banding etc (should it occur). so i think to get to 4-5" we'd need like .6-.75" qpf or something. that seems a pretty far stretch based on the euro and gfs. not to say it's impossible but it seems unlikely. Ooops, you caught my typo...I meant 2.4 - 3.5. I fully expect error-laden snow though. Make no initialized mistake about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 i like how yesterday psuhoffman was like "yo yo north trend not for sure" but now he's remembering how a model fringe can end in a solid pounding and he's joined with the north wishers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 dont all models look like that at 48 before they transfer... fall apart and dry up like Marcus _ _ _ _ I lol'd. I think that may be our longest running inside joke ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I lol'd. I think that may be our longest running inside joke ever. unfortunately...our longest running outside joke is mountain high...valley low. We actually pretty much live in Death Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'll probably hang out here from here on out. We can trade lame jokes and have fun in the midst of our misery. At least we have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 i like how yesterday psuhoffman was like "yo yo north trend not for sure" but now he's remembering how a model fringe can end in a solid pounding and he's joined with the north wishers. He should focus on shoveling out from the 22 inches of snow he supposedly received this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 ddweatherman algorithm: IF >GFS is solid hit THEN >NO errors in model or int. IF >GFS further south <AND/OR> >GFS shows sharp cutoff >SOUTH of ddweatherman THEN >GFS has int. errors OR convective feedback OR missing ROAB data OR GFS node infected by ILOVEYOU virus. Oh skippy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 unfortunately...our longest running outside joke is mountain high...valley low. We actually pretty much live in Death Valley We haven't had an MSN smiley-worthy storm since Feb 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'll probably hang out here from here on out. We can trade lame jokes and have fun in the midst of our misery. At least we have that. the banter thread is #winning except that yoda started it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 unfortunately...our longest running outside joke is mountain high...valley low. We actually pretty much live in Death Valley Still time to sink into an oceanic trench tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Once it hits the confluence it will straight up blow. it does, and it looks like 40N is where it stops look at the 700mb RH on this link...unbelievable how flat that is http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3255_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'll probably hang out here from here on out. We can trade lame jokes and have fun in the midst of our misery. At least we have that. hold me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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