mappy Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I very well could be. If the 0Z models don't shift I will change my forecast and stand up, raise my hand, and admit that I was wrong. But until then, I will hold my ground. I'm hugging this guy - screw the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 If you pay taxes why did you get that letter from the IRS?. lol- i actually did get one once. I had like $1,500 in 1099 income one year but I was a regular salary guy. Never had a 1099 before so I totally forgot about it come tax time. 2 years later I get a certified letter saying I owe like $900. The funny part was that the actual tax was only $450. After penalties and interest it was double. What a racket! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 OT....this site keeps crashing on the iPad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I got a sick feeling about the GFS. Valley low Ji...valley low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I got a sick feeling about the GFS. Valley low Ji...valley low I think it will be better than 12Z. Not great, but decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 i dont really think the models can go much further south so there's that at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think it will be better than 12Z. Not great, but decent. Same, has the chance to be bad, but 0z is where the real deal is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Same, has the chance to be bad, but 0z is where the real deal is. im confident you would say that before any run that we needed it to come north on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 im confident you would say that before any run that we needed it to come north on No, i dont think its coming north ian, but if it does its 0z/12z tomorrow. In my real forecast, not weenieing it Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 im confident you would say that before any run that we needed it to come north on I enjoy trying to predict what the models are going to predict. Next winter I may work on trying to predict what different posters will predict the models are going to predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I enjoy trying to predict what the models are going to predict. Next winter I may work on trying to predict what different posters will predict the models are going to predict. ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 i dont really think the models can go much further south so there's that at least Hey, the UKMET hasn't run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 i like the old guy weenie crew.. they're all looking at wv and putting their fingers to the wind to make their calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I am all for lambasting weenies during storm mode. You lambast weenies when the models show 50 and sunny. I think there is a difference but maybe you don't. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Hey, the UKMET hasn't run yet. Would you like to see the 18z UKIE? Come out around 530 i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The gradient is the painful part. I don't have the vivid memories of past events like alot of folks on here but man, fairly strong miller A with an 850 track from central ga off of hse and we could get almost nothing? Pretty robust nw precip shield moving through tn and wv and we could get almost nothing? I just have a hard time accepting reality I guess. With that being said, I don't think it's foolish to think we stand a decent chance for 2-4 / 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I enjoy trying to predict what the models are going to predict. Next winter I may work on trying to predict what different posters will predict the models are going to predict. The second part is actually much easier than the first part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This is fun now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 i dont really think the models can go much further south so there's that at least famous last words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The second part is actually much easier than the first part. Thats only because Yoda scores highest with GGEM posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The gradient is the painful part. I don't have the vivid memories of past events like alot of folks on here but man, fairly strong miller A with an 850 track from central ga off of hse and we could get almost nothing? Pretty robust nw precip shield moving through tn and wv and we could get almost nothing? I just have a hard time accepting reality I guess. With that being said, I don't think it's foolish to think we stand a decent chance for 2-4 / 3-5. we won't have 10:1 ratios thru the event.. maybe in solid banding etc (should it occur). so i think to get to 4-5" we'd need like .6-.75" qpf or something. that seems a pretty far stretch based on the euro and gfs. not to say it's impossible but it seems unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Same, has the chance to be bad, but 0z is where the real deal is. Hope they are not filled with errors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Same, has the chance to be bad, but 0z is where the real deal is. I sure hope so, skippy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 We need some int. errors or something. Anybody? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I hope so, skippy. I hope so too weenie, but i certainly dont expect much despite what you may think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I hope so too weenie, but i certainly dont expect much despite what you may think. Really? Didn't you say the 0z NAM would give 10" to DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 We need some int. errors or something. Anybody? ddweatherman sees some problems with the 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 ddweatherman sees some problems with the 18z gfs Come on now ian, lets see what comes of the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 ddweatherman sees some problems with the 18z gfs I will have the 18z RGEM in like 2 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I will have the 18z RGEM in like 2 mins sweet.. a good time for me to make my return home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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