mappy Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 epic pwning by the euro. For those who called for option B earlier this week, kudos to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Calling for DC to get shafted is not really a bold forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Calling for DC to get shafted is not really a bold forecast. okie dokie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Calling for DC to get shafted is not really a bold forecast. This X1000. Especially this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So what will people think if the NAM and GFS hold serve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Don't worry weenies, JB still thinks DC could get 6+! http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/170568091560972288/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Don't worry weenies, JB still thinks DC could get 6+! http://twitter.com/#...0972288/photo/1 What a And lol @ him using the JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 uncertainty and persistence are the two main keywords of this winter. imo no "forecast" from several days ago was much more than an educated guess (if that). the qpf bomb with half rain and half snow seems to be more or less off the table tho stranger things have happened. and phineas is sort of right.. just stating a storm will not be great around here is not saying a whole lot without plentiful backing. but that can go back to persistence this winter. this is perhaps like the opposite of 09/10 where it snowed at every real opp... something goes wrong at every real op. but if you're truly forecasting there is little reason to choose one side and stay there until the end especially in the face of contrary evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Don't worry weenies, JB still thinks DC could get 6+! http://twitter.com/#...0972288/photo/1 I think we have better odds of falling apples Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 What a And lol @ him using the JMA. Its Ji Sr.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Why oh why didn't I listen when people cautioned not to hug the NAM...I WANTED to believe... ah well. My kid will be far more disappointed than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Why oh why didn't I listen when people cautioned not to hug the NAM...I WANTED to believe... ah well. My kid will be far more disappointed than me. Honestly I'm glad I learned that lesson as the hangover from the model runs today aren't so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 If I was a betting man, I'd still put my money down that DC and Baltimore get 2" of snow. The trouble with that is even the 12Z gfs wouldn't work as it is too warm.You need dynamics of the big dump to get it cold enough to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 So what will people think if the NAM and GFS hold serve? I will be cautious and likely take the runs as a possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 many here are too quick to rush to absolutes. I'm glad Jason and I decided to hold off on putting out a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Instead of crying in my wheaties, I'm just gonna rely on the fact that we're praying for a n jog and not battling an awful rain snow line to the north. After all the crappy little events this year, I think I would prefer to get whiffed than to sit and watch flakes melt on contact or within 15 minutes. This is good solid weenie rationalization and I highly recommend it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Post the euro ensembles plzthx, do it for the sake of sanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So what will people think if the NAM and GFS hold serve? DC will get shafted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 How often does KY and WV get 10 inches and we get nothing? Ask your uncle/daddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think we really need the 18Z and 00Z models non-Euro models at least hold to continue having some hope for a last-minute save. If they lock in with the Euro we are toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 at this juncture 1-2" or so into dc still seems like an OK deal. tho im not sure how much middle ground there is between not having the rates needed and getting more of a thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think we really need the 18Z and 00Z models non-Euro models at least hold to continue having some hope for a last-minute save. If they lock in with the Euro we are toast. 15z SREFs say goodbye... 0.25 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 You have to think if the NAM holds this run that maybe the OP Euro is not correct. I know the Euro is king but a red tagger in SE thread mentioned inside 72 it's not as "kingy"...now I am using words that don't exist...I got nothing... and will be nowcasting with the rest of you on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think we really need the 18Z and 00Z models non-Euro models at least hold to continue having some hope for a last-minute save. If they lock in with the Euro we are toast. 1/24/2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 15z SREFs say goodbye... 0.25 QPF Your posts are terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 You have to think if the NAM holds this run that maybe the OP Euro is not correct. I know the Euro is king but a red tagger in SE thread mentioned inside 72 it's not as "kingy"...now I am using words that don't exist...I got nothing... and will be nowcasting with the rest of you on Sunday This is true. Let us see if the NAM folds or holds steady. I would love the Euro to be wrong for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Your posts are terrible. I will take it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I don't buy the southeast shift in the models at all. We saw that yesterday the NAM, GFS, and Euro shifted south at the 12Z and 18Z runs, but shifted right back north at 0Z. I'm not going to model hug the forecast, and I will keep the map I created this morning until the shift back doesn't happen. I'm going to sit back and watch the models flop south then north tonight, and not alter my forecast at all until I know that I have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This storm has left some funny reading for later. Storm or no storm, this winter can't end soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I don't buy the southeast shift in the models at all. We saw that yesterday the NAM, GFS, and Euro shifted south at the 12Z and 18Z runs, but shifted right back north at 0Z. I'm not going to model hug the forecast, and I will keep the map I created this morning until the shift back doesn't happen. I'm going to sit back and watch the models flop south then north tonight, and not alter my forecast at all until I know that I have to. You should consider changing it. While the models shifted the precip N&S yesterday, they didn't shift the 850 track south. That happened today. Right or wrong, seeing the slp track off the nc coast and be further s&e with all 12z guidance is something that cannot be overlooked or discounted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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