yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think we really need the 18Z and 00Z models non-Euro models at least hold to continue having some hope for a last-minute save. If they lock in with the Euro we are toast. 15z SREFs say goodbye... 0.25 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 You have to think if the NAM holds this run that maybe the OP Euro is not correct. I know the Euro is king but a red tagger in SE thread mentioned inside 72 it's not as "kingy"...now I am using words that don't exist...I got nothing... and will be nowcasting with the rest of you on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think we really need the 18Z and 00Z models non-Euro models at least hold to continue having some hope for a last-minute save. If they lock in with the Euro we are toast. 1/24/2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 15z SREFs say goodbye... 0.25 QPF Your posts are terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 You have to think if the NAM holds this run that maybe the OP Euro is not correct. I know the Euro is king but a red tagger in SE thread mentioned inside 72 it's not as "kingy"...now I am using words that don't exist...I got nothing... and will be nowcasting with the rest of you on Sunday This is true. Let us see if the NAM folds or holds steady. I would love the Euro to be wrong for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Your posts are terrible. I will take it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I don't buy the southeast shift in the models at all. We saw that yesterday the NAM, GFS, and Euro shifted south at the 12Z and 18Z runs, but shifted right back north at 0Z. I'm not going to model hug the forecast, and I will keep the map I created this morning until the shift back doesn't happen. I'm going to sit back and watch the models flop south then north tonight, and not alter my forecast at all until I know that I have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This storm has left some funny reading for later. Storm or no storm, this winter can't end soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I don't buy the southeast shift in the models at all. We saw that yesterday the NAM, GFS, and Euro shifted south at the 12Z and 18Z runs, but shifted right back north at 0Z. I'm not going to model hug the forecast, and I will keep the map I created this morning until the shift back doesn't happen. I'm going to sit back and watch the models flop south then north tonight, and not alter my forecast at all until I know that I have to. You should consider changing it. While the models shifted the precip N&S yesterday, they didn't shift the 850 track south. That happened today. Right or wrong, seeing the slp track off the nc coast and be further s&e with all 12z guidance is something that cannot be overlooked or discounted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 My zone forecast is for SNOW..not SNOW LIKELY...no mention of rain...WSW to my west...see how long that holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Can I just point out that there are now five separate threads in the Midatlantic forum alone for this storm (albeit one of them inactive): - Main storm thread - Euro and GFS only thread - Banter thread - Obs thread - Ji's (quickly locked) storm thread from a week ago. Is this really necessary? I know it's meant to make following details easier, but I'm not sure having 4 tabs open in the MA forum alone does so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 You should consider changing it. While the models shifted the precip N&S yesterday, they didn't shift the 850 track south. That happened today. Right or wrong, seeing the slp track off the nc coast and be further s&e with all 12z guidance is something that cannot be overlooked or discounted. I'm not discounting it, but I want to see more than one run before I change my forecast, because it could and in my opinion be just one bad run. If the 0Z runs aren't good then I will make a shift but until then i won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 part of the "reasoning" for subforums was to stop with the superthreads. it's dumb to have to wander into a 1000 post thread looking for anything of note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I fear the CWG's No storm vs Storm game will end with the star QB for team storm, NAM, throwing a last second interception to the star of team no storm, EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I like the breakout of various threads. It's much more efficient. Most importantly, keeping banter separate from analysis is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I fear the CWG's No storm vs Storm game will end with the star QB for team storm, NAM, throwing a last second interception to the star of team no storm, EURO. So what you're saying is the NAM is the equivalent of Rex Grossman? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I fear the CWG's No storm vs Storm game will end with the star QB for team storm, NAM, throwing a last second interception to the star of team no storm, EURO. More like the star WR drops the pass in the end zone blowing the chance for a Super (Bowl) type of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I fear the CWG's No storm vs Storm game will end with the star QB for team storm, NAM, throwing a last second interception to the star of team no storm, EURO. Just as long as the NAM doesn't do a Cundiff.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I fear the CWG's No storm vs Storm game will end with the star QB for team storm, NAM, throwing a last second interception to the star of team no storm, EURO. the good news is it's coming closer to ending.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So what you're saying is the NAM is the equivalent of Rex Grossman? Favre Hope the NAM doubles-down, just for the lulz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 How is it the outlier when the GFS is closer to it than the NAM? the NAM is the outlier here euro is the clear outlier NAM,JMA,GGEM and GFS all give us precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yeah, NAM looks slightly more amplified. Ugh. Why do we have to have the NAM on our side? dude...the NAM was designed for this timeframe. If it cant nail the event from 24-36 hours out...what the hell is the use of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 how much for my 10-digit grid coordinate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 just cause i feel like posting it.....precip not as robust and further south on 18z @ 36 vs 42 on 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I am riding JB, he says the JMA has the right idea. JMA was first to see the storm and has been the most consistent. I am riding the JMA too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Come on JI. Even your weenie ass isnt going to take the NAM over the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Favre Hope the NAM doubles-down, just for the lulz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 euro is the clear outlier NAM,JMA,GGEM and GFS all give us precip Look dude, I want snow just as much as you do, but the NAM has been terrible and you know how it likes to mirage us and then break our hearts and fold. If the other real deal models are against it, it's a good bet its wrong. GGEM and JMA? Seriously? Mark my words, 0z tonight, NAM folds like Tony Romo in the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 how much for my 10-digit grid coordinate? Depends, which model you hugging? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I am riding JB on this one, he say the JMA has the right track. Euro is the clear outlier- unfortunately its the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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