nj2va Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 It's pretty easy. Each line in a group of colors represents and individual ensemble member. Each individual color represents a specific 850 temp. +10, 0, & 10 on the plot Ellinwood posted. The larger the swath of each color represents a larger spread in the individual ensemble solutions. The white lines show the average of all the members. It's a great tool really. When the members are grouped closely, forecasting can be done with higher confidence and vice versa. The map you're asking about showed a large spread so it's pretty clear that the model is struggling with how to handle the pattern. Cool, thanks. That is pretty easy. For some reason, I thought it was tracks of lows or something. And that's why I keep any analysis to a BARE minimum in those threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 It's pretty easy. Each line in a group of colors represents and individual ensemble member. Each individual color represents a specific 850 temp. +10, 0, & 10 on the plot Ellinwood posted. The larger the swath of each color represents a larger spread in the individual ensemble solutions. The white lines show the average of all the members. It's a great tool really. When the members are grouped closely, forecasting can be done with higher confidence and vice versa. The map you're asking about showed a large spread so it's pretty clear that the model is struggling with how to handle the pattern. Thanks I was wondering as well. What is your take on the possible threat? It seems like there is little room for error for this to be a hit. Also, looking at the confluence it appears it can only come so far west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 For the love of god no one look at the DGEX snow clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I was waiting for the first DGEX mention . The DGEX is like a broken clock except instead of being right twice a day it is right twice a century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Thanks I was wondering as well. What is your take on the possible threat? It seems like there is little room for error for this to be a hit. Also, looking at the confluence it appears it can only come so far west? I think the bigger issue is whether we get a storm at all. No sense worrying about the track right now. The room for error kinda starts out in the midwest really. Split flow and stream interaction is precarious for us. It can happen though and I will say this is probably one of the better chances for us but that isn't saying all that much. We're really going to need some interaction between the 2 streams. If models are still trending toward consensus of a storm on wed-thur then I'll start to get pretty excited. I fully expect the gfs and euro to show nothing tonight but that doesn't mean the threat is gone. I always loop ncep's 500 vorticity maps for the 0z and 12z runs. Stick this in your faves: http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I was waiting for the first DGEX mention . The DGEX is like a broken clock except instead of being right twice a day it is right twice a century. Were gonna have to wait a while then bc it did pretty well with the Xmas storm last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Were gonna have to wait a while then bc it did pretty well with the Xmas storm last year It's probably right. The DGEX is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Were gonna have to wait a while then bc it did pretty well with the Xmas storm last year Not around here and that's what counts for weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Loved this storm: And this one too: We were actually under a WSWatch for one of them. Great times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 It's probably right. The DGEX is awesome. No... This is the jma's baby... It would score the coup on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 For the love of god no one look at the DGEX snow clown map Where do you find DGEX clown maps? I don't see them on Earl or Allan's websites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 For the love of god no one look at the DGEX snow clown map I saw it in the SE thread...holy s*** Speaking of the SE folks...they are inspiring. Most optimistic group especially considering the amount of snow they usually get. Most of them haven't seen a flake yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Ugh, the models are really drawing me in... again... Hope is alive, for the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I smell a biggie coming on the 00Z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I saw it in the SE thread...holy s*** Speaking of the SE folks...they are inspiring. Most optimistic group especially considering the amount of snow they usually get. Most of them haven't seen a flake yet It will be interesting to see what the MA crew does to MillzPirate after a couple of winters up in DC. He is probably going to turn twisted and bitter :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I smell a biggie coming on the 00Z guidance. is anyone extrapolating the nam yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 is anyone extrapolating the nam yet? DGEX baby. Shows a big low just SE of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Loved this storm: And this one too: We were actually under a WSWatch for one of them. Great times... The year with the best storm track ever, was also the least snowiest winter ever, amazing. You know forcasters must of been sweating their balls off when models showed 3.0" liquid with marginal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 We're not in the nam's extrapolation wheelhouse yet. That comes at 12z tomorrow. I just saw a pickup with a plow drive through my hood. Must be practicing for next monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I'm sure it will show 5 inches qpf over dca with 12-1 ratios. Cut the qpf in half and I think you have a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Were gonna have to wait a while then bc it did pretty well with the Xmas storm last year The DGEX is a total piece of crap developed by a bored computer nerd at NOAA while high and munching on Doritos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 What *is* up with LWX these days? Not just referring to the snow maps-- but why do the zone forecasts keep changing during these mid-shifts? MDZ009-140300- MONTGOMERY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAITHERSBURG 630 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012 .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. MDZ009-141000- MONTGOMERY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAITHERSBURG 930 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012 .REST OF TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH LATE THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. .TUESDAY...CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING... THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. Edited to add: I mean, what new data could have come in between 3 pm and 6:30 pm for them to insert the snow chances overnight, and then kill the chances three hours later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 is anyone extrapolating the nam yet? Vort over plains is weaker and further W. Southern is also W but stronger. Extrapolation = KU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The DGEX is a total piece of crap developed by a bored computer nerd at NOAA while high and munching on Doritos. I know. There are a lot of models that don't belong on the interwebz. But without them what would weenies munch on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Yeah the southern vort on the Nam looks intense enough to survive it's trek across the lower 48 without getting squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Vort over plains is weaker and further W. Southern is also W but stronger. Extrapolation = KU whoa now, easy. I'm a stickler about this. I think the term KU is thrown out to easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 What *is* up with LWX these days? Not just referring to the snow maps-- but why do the zone forecasts keep changing during these mid-shifts? Edited to add: I mean, what new data could have come in between 3 pm and 6:30 pm for them to insert the snow chances overnight, and then kill the chances three hours later? The 18z model runs? My understanding is that these point and click forecasts are direct outputs of model data with little or no human intervention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The DGEX is a total piece of crap developed by a bored computer nerd at NOAA while high and munching on Doritos. don't forget the Sweet Salsa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The 18z model runs? My understanding is that these point and click forecasts are direct outputs of model data with little or no human intervention. Neither NAM run had precip in here overnight and the GFS went from a spit of snow on the 12Z to nothing on the 18Z. Somehow, I doubt they're generating point-and-clicks with the RGEM (didn't bother to check any differences)... So, again, something went wonky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 . This is the problem with the MA forum. Too many jackasses. Yeoman is every troll's mentor. He is basically the grandaddy of exclusive forum trolling. It all starts with him. I tried to be like Yeoman, but then I started making occasional on-topic posts and next thing I knew BAM... I was a normal poster. They guy is dedicated to his craft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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