Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 i think dc is pretty much a lock for 1-2"... probably more but a lock for that. agreed..I still might chase if it looks like 6-10+ not too far (less than 2 hours) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Can we talk about the GGEM in here? It looks north. NAM/GGEM ftw Yoda should start a GGEM thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So...it's the SREFs/NAM/GGEM/RGEM vs. GFS/Euro/Ukie? It's like hoping the O's are going to sweep the Yankees in a 4 game series...Gotta convince the Euro to change teams. That happens once every 15 years so we still have a chance . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yoda should start a GGEM thread Should I include the ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 agreed..I still might chase if it looks like 6-10+ not too far (less than 2 hours) Makes sense... I'm going to try to get free but I still have the dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I know it's considered an inferior model but the NAM has been steady as well...no reason to think it can't be right. I am reaching because if we whiff I will be quite sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It would hurt to miss a big storm because it went south but winters like this one usually keep finding ways to screw us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Makes sense... I'm going to try to get free but I still have the dog No comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It would hurt to miss a big storm because it went south but winters like this one usually keep finding ways to screw us. This winter has screwed the entire US besides Alaska and portions of TX/Colorado front range, so you aren't alone. At least you have a storm to track there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 No comment. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It would hurt to miss a big storm because it went south but winters like this one usually keep finding ways to screw us. If it's going to miss us, then I'd rather see it slam Richmond than Philly or NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I am alive, got my health, food, plenty of cold beverages and a storm to track. If I get 1-2" it will be biggest snow of the year for me. I'll take it. If more or less than 1-2" nothing I can do about. All good here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 If it's going to miss us, then I'd rather see it slam Richmond than Philly or NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Well Baroclinic does not seem to agree with him and outside of Wes i trust him the most, so i will wait to head to the 14th st bridge until tomorrow. Actually I did agree with him, we just had slightly different thoughts on why the tracks/development were slightly different. In the big scheme of things, that we are even sitting here discussing 30 mile differences with a system of this magnitude 60 hours out given the current atmospheric state is incredible, and it is a nod to numerical modeling and human ingenuity. As for you, I wouldn't worry about jumping off bridges, 2-4" seems pretty darned legit for portions of NOVA including DC, really the bigger question is the higher amount potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 If I end up getting more snow than our northern friends(Balt N) then I will start chilling the BL and Yuengling now. Sledding party! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It looks pretty realistic and normal, and honestly, while folks may want to "lock" onto a solution, that just doesn't happen with systems like this when they have such a GOM tap. Grossly too much latent energy available here, and the final solution of this system will move around like this since the GFS/NAM/GEM/UK/and ECMWF will all be dependent upon the activation of sub-grid convective schemes and how they develop that DMC...which is not necessarily something that will be well handled by the deterministic guidance. So the more knowlegeable the expert, the reticent to pretend they know what the final solution will be...at this time. Trace to eight" seems safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 ok, i'm so out of the loop...Amwx is in Storm Mode? crap...apparently i've missed something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Funny, how people would be panicking if the NAM wasn't on board. We got the NAM, and remain on the northern fringe of a weaker GFS. I remain optimistic for at least another hour, but if we don't get any love or north trend on the Euro, think the writing will be on the wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 why? because it does not show enough snow for your back yard? Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Funny, how people would be panicking if the NAM wasn't on board. We got the NAM, and remain on the northern fringe of a weaker GFS. I remain optimistic for at least another hour, but if we don't get any love or north trend on the Euro, think the writing will be on the wall Don't think so, but I don't know so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This storm has brought out the weenie in a TON of you guys from D.C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So the more knowlegeable the expert, the reticent to pretend they know what the final solution will be...at this time. Trace to eight" seems safe. You clearly know nothing about weather forecasting or have ever even given it a try. I have not seen one iota of relevant weather discussion from you here so your comment is a bit unusual. Weather forecasting techniques are highly dependent upon who the customer is, what the relationship is, and what it is they want. I used to forecast for road DOT's (UT DOT), and they wanted yes/no calls 2 days in advance to make personell decisions. The ability to make such calls was highly dependent upon having a solid customer relationship where they understood trust in us was going to end better for them in the long run. We may very well be wrong on occasion (weather is always right, not us!), but they will both save money and time by putting full trust in us. In public forecasting, it is a completely different ball game consisting of threats and impacts. It is not prudent to make yes/no calls 60 hours out when 30 miles can mean the difference between heavy snow and nothing. Hedging and making realistic calls combined with what the potential impacts/timing are is the way to approach the situation with full understanding of what might go wrong. The public does not understand weather like individuals who work in various weather dependent industries do, so we approach the situation differently. Were I forecasting for this event at the local office, I would make light of the potential for periods of heavy snow as well as moderate snow accumulations, timing, and potential road travel impacts. The potential for heavier snow exists and is dependent upon convective development. As a good forecaster, you don't flip-flop run to run like some of you weenies do, and we make the best predictions on what will occur given the atmospheric pattern/setup which includes impacts that are probability driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 You clearly know nothing about weather forecasting or have ever even given it a try. I have ntot seen one iota of relevant weather discussion from you here so your comment is a bit unusual. Weather forecasting techniques are highly dependent upon who the customer is, what the relationship is, and what it is they want. I used to forecast for road DOT's (UT DOT), and they wanted yes/no calls 2 days in advance to make personell decisions. The ability to make such calls was highly dependent upon having a solid customer relationship where they understood trust in us was going to end better for them in the long run. We may very well be wrong on occasion (weather is always right, not us!), but they will both save money and time by putting full trust in us. In public forecasting, it is a completely different ball game consisting of threats and impacts. It is not prudent to make yes/no calls 60 hours out when 30 miles can mean the difference between heavy snow and nothing. Hedging and making realistic calls combined with what the potential impacts/timing are is the way to approach the situation with full understanding of what might go wrong. The public does not understand weather like individuals who work in various weather dependent industries do, so we approach the situation differently. Were I forecasting for this event at the local office, I would make light of the potential for periods of heavy snow as well as moderate snow accumulations, timing, and potential road travel impacts. The potential for heavier snow exists and is dependent upon convective development. As a good forecaster, you don't flip-flop run to run like some of you weenies do, and we make the best predictions on what will occur given the atmospheric pattern/setup which includes impacts that are probability driven. LOL, we just can't win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 winterymix is a little weird; please pay him no mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This winter has screwed the entire US besides Alaska and portions of TX/Colorado front range, so you aren't alone. At least you have a storm to track there. Everyone hates us already B_I. Did you need to rub it in just a little more...?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This storm has brought out the weenie in a TON of you guys from D.C So? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 LOL, we just can't win. In many ways I liked working with the DOT's, lol, because they were weather savvy compared to the average general public who thinks we are goons who are no better than 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 In many ways I liked working with the DOT's, lol, because they were weather savvy compared to the average general public who thinks we are goons who are no better than 50/50. We aren't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Everyone hates us already B_I. Did you need to rub it in just a little more...?... Haha they don't hate us, but we don't have a tiny forum representation. This summer should change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 We aren't? Ha, well I hope we are. In terms of long range prediction I certainly am not. I default to guys like you there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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