baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So the more knowlegeable the expert, the reticent to pretend they know what the final solution will be...at this time. Trace to eight" seems safe. You clearly know nothing about weather forecasting or have ever even given it a try. I have not seen one iota of relevant weather discussion from you here so your comment is a bit unusual. Weather forecasting techniques are highly dependent upon who the customer is, what the relationship is, and what it is they want. I used to forecast for road DOT's (UT DOT), and they wanted yes/no calls 2 days in advance to make personell decisions. The ability to make such calls was highly dependent upon having a solid customer relationship where they understood trust in us was going to end better for them in the long run. We may very well be wrong on occasion (weather is always right, not us!), but they will both save money and time by putting full trust in us. In public forecasting, it is a completely different ball game consisting of threats and impacts. It is not prudent to make yes/no calls 60 hours out when 30 miles can mean the difference between heavy snow and nothing. Hedging and making realistic calls combined with what the potential impacts/timing are is the way to approach the situation with full understanding of what might go wrong. The public does not understand weather like individuals who work in various weather dependent industries do, so we approach the situation differently. Were I forecasting for this event at the local office, I would make light of the potential for periods of heavy snow as well as moderate snow accumulations, timing, and potential road travel impacts. The potential for heavier snow exists and is dependent upon convective development. As a good forecaster, you don't flip-flop run to run like some of you weenies do, and we make the best predictions on what will occur given the atmospheric pattern/setup which includes impacts that are probability driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 You clearly know nothing about weather forecasting or have ever even given it a try. I have ntot seen one iota of relevant weather discussion from you here so your comment is a bit unusual. Weather forecasting techniques are highly dependent upon who the customer is, what the relationship is, and what it is they want. I used to forecast for road DOT's (UT DOT), and they wanted yes/no calls 2 days in advance to make personell decisions. The ability to make such calls was highly dependent upon having a solid customer relationship where they understood trust in us was going to end better for them in the long run. We may very well be wrong on occasion (weather is always right, not us!), but they will both save money and time by putting full trust in us. In public forecasting, it is a completely different ball game consisting of threats and impacts. It is not prudent to make yes/no calls 60 hours out when 30 miles can mean the difference between heavy snow and nothing. Hedging and making realistic calls combined with what the potential impacts/timing are is the way to approach the situation with full understanding of what might go wrong. The public does not understand weather like individuals who work in various weather dependent industries do, so we approach the situation differently. Were I forecasting for this event at the local office, I would make light of the potential for periods of heavy snow as well as moderate snow accumulations, timing, and potential road travel impacts. The potential for heavier snow exists and is dependent upon convective development. As a good forecaster, you don't flip-flop run to run like some of you weenies do, and we make the best predictions on what will occur given the atmospheric pattern/setup which includes impacts that are probability driven. LOL, we just can't win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 winterymix is a little weird; please pay him no mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This winter has screwed the entire US besides Alaska and portions of TX/Colorado front range, so you aren't alone. At least you have a storm to track there. Everyone hates us already B_I. Did you need to rub it in just a little more...?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This storm has brought out the weenie in a TON of you guys from D.C So? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 LOL, we just can't win. In many ways I liked working with the DOT's, lol, because they were weather savvy compared to the average general public who thinks we are goons who are no better than 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 In many ways I liked working with the DOT's, lol, because they were weather savvy compared to the average general public who thinks we are goons who are no better than 50/50. We aren't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Everyone hates us already B_I. Did you need to rub it in just a little more...?... Haha they don't hate us, but we don't have a tiny forum representation. This summer should change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 We aren't? Ha, well I hope we are. In terms of long range prediction I certainly am not. I default to guys like you there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So it's SREF/NAM/GGEM/RGEM/JMA vs. Euro/GFS/Ukie. Maybe if we can put 15 players on the field, we can beat the Yankee's 9... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 RPM the new weenie model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Whatever that thing was...it actually looked pretty crappy for all of us. If I lived in eastern KY or much of WV, I'd be gettin' giddy right about now. I think every model (today at least) has a lot of that area in 10"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Whatever that thing was...it actually looked pretty crappy for all of us. If I lived in eastern KY or much of WV, I'd be gettin' giddy right about now. I think every model (today at least) has a lot of that area in 10"+. It said hr 63 on the map... so I think more would be coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Whatever that thing was...it actually looked pretty crappy for all of us. If I lived in eastern KY or much of WV, I'd be gettin' giddy right about now. I think every model (today at least) has a lot of that area in 10"+. How often does KY and WV get 10 inches and we get nothing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 How often does KY and WV get 10 inches and we get nothing? I'd venture to say not very damn often. BTW...waiting for the Euro to come out remains me of the Ravens driving down the field with <2mins in the AFC Championship. You can smell victory and then Lee Evans drops the pass. Hopefully the Euro gets 2 feet down...(pun intended ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The folks over in Europe hate us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Hopefully the Euro gets 2 feet down...(pun intended ) Guess not. Cundiff-ed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'd venture to say not very damn often. BTW...waiting for the Euro to come out remains me of the Ravens driving down the field with <2mins in the AFC Championship. You can smell victory and then Lee Evans drops the pass. Hopefully the Euro gets 2 feet down...(pun intended ) swing and a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 old snow weenies wishing the euro north fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Oh well, this was a fun one to track at least. Will be hard watching the heavy bands set up just south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 In the words of Billy Packard..."It's OOHVAH" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 LWX should have probably waited until after the Euro came in before changing my forecast to Sunday for 80% snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'd venture to say not very damn often. BTW...waiting for the Euro to come out remains me of the Ravens driving down the field with <2mins in the AFC Championship. You can smell victory and then Lee Evans drops the pass. Hopefully the Euro gets 2 feet down...(pun intended ) GAHHH! Oh well, always next year (for the Ravens and winter) Just a bit bummed that we didn't get a decent snowfall to enjoy that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Dr. No is back, but alot of people take it as 100 % certain. Euro has always been on the south side of the consensus. I'm grasping for straws....I know. What storm would track so far south with such a marginal airmass, only in winter 2011-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 many here are too quick to rush to absolutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 many here are too quick to rush to absolutes. "1-2 is a lock" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 "1-2 is a lock" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 "1-2 is a lock" touche Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 We can probably all plan on 18z runs bringing us all back in and then another downer at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 "pretty much". i still way undercut pretty much everyone else of late and i've said at least 1 million times it can miss to the south and a north trend is not inevitable. i might not be that sexy with snow talk but im not just here to annoy snow lovers. and lol to the weenie ****.. there are 100 people here more deserving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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