Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I guess the weenie suicides have commended. I still think this is within the drifting back and forth of the models in general. A north OR south shift are not out of the question by a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 perfect time for Midlo's .gif of the soccer coach cheering thinking they scored only to have it not really happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So basically our last hope is the Euro, if it does not come north you are saying we are screwed. Well never say never in this business, but if it slides south, I wouldn't be happy..shall we say. FWIW, it probably won't change all that much, but I know that means little who are on the edge and it shifts like 30 miles or so. These things sometimes surprise, so you'll just have to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 and i'm calling it now that the Euro has initialized wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Well never say never in this business, but if it slides south, I wouldn't be happy..shall we say. FWIW, it probably won't change all that much, but I know that means little who are on the edge and it shifts like 30 miles or so. These things sometimes surprise, so you'll just have to watch. Thanks Scott your input is great and makes for excellent discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Awww did you hurt his feelings? Let me clarify. We are all weenies here. Some more so than others though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 i think dc is pretty much a lock for 1-2"... probably more but a lock for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So...it's the SREFs/NAM/GGEM/RGEM vs. GFS/Euro/Ukie? It's like hoping the O's are going to sweep the Yankees in a 4 game series... Gotta convince the Euro to change teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Thanks Scott your input is great and makes for excellent discussions. Thanks Raven. There are definitely some question marks, so you really can't say much until maybe later today. If the euro holds serve, then maybe you can get that subtle shift north on guidance later tonight or tomorrow, but that isn't a lock. These subtle shifts north are based on experience with how some of these things behave..and it relates back to some physics, but if the nrn stream is too strong with confluence, it means little. When you have such a sharp QPF gradient, and a system trying to come north...a small change in a s/w wave soemtimes has a big outcome, because the difference in distance between the haves and have nots, is small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Can we talk about the GGEM in here? It looks north. NAM/GGEM ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Can we talk about the GGEM in here? It looks north. NAM/GGEM ftw Yoda should start a GGEM thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So...it's the SREFs/NAM/GGEM/RGEM vs. GFS/Euro/Ukie? It's like hoping the O's are going to sweep the Yankees in a 4 game series...Gotta convince the Euro to change teams. That happens once every 15 years so we still have a chance . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yoda should start a GGEM thread Should I include the ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 agreed..I still might chase if it looks like 6-10+ not too far (less than 2 hours) Makes sense... I'm going to try to get free but I still have the dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I know it's considered an inferior model but the NAM has been steady as well...no reason to think it can't be right. I am reaching because if we whiff I will be quite sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It would hurt to miss a big storm because it went south but winters like this one usually keep finding ways to screw us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Makes sense... I'm going to try to get free but I still have the dog No comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It would hurt to miss a big storm because it went south but winters like this one usually keep finding ways to screw us. This winter has screwed the entire US besides Alaska and portions of TX/Colorado front range, so you aren't alone. At least you have a storm to track there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 No comment. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It would hurt to miss a big storm because it went south but winters like this one usually keep finding ways to screw us. If it's going to miss us, then I'd rather see it slam Richmond than Philly or NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I am alive, got my health, food, plenty of cold beverages and a storm to track. If I get 1-2" it will be biggest snow of the year for me. I'll take it. If more or less than 1-2" nothing I can do about. All good here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 If it's going to miss us, then I'd rather see it slam Richmond than Philly or NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Well Baroclinic does not seem to agree with him and outside of Wes i trust him the most, so i will wait to head to the 14th st bridge until tomorrow. Actually I did agree with him, we just had slightly different thoughts on why the tracks/development were slightly different. In the big scheme of things, that we are even sitting here discussing 30 mile differences with a system of this magnitude 60 hours out given the current atmospheric state is incredible, and it is a nod to numerical modeling and human ingenuity. As for you, I wouldn't worry about jumping off bridges, 2-4" seems pretty darned legit for portions of NOVA including DC, really the bigger question is the higher amount potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 If I end up getting more snow than our northern friends(Balt N) then I will start chilling the BL and Yuengling now. Sledding party! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It looks pretty realistic and normal, and honestly, while folks may want to "lock" onto a solution, that just doesn't happen with systems like this when they have such a GOM tap. Grossly too much latent energy available here, and the final solution of this system will move around like this since the GFS/NAM/GEM/UK/and ECMWF will all be dependent upon the activation of sub-grid convective schemes and how they develop that DMC...which is not necessarily something that will be well handled by the deterministic guidance. So the more knowlegeable the expert, the reticent to pretend they know what the final solution will be...at this time. Trace to eight" seems safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 ok, i'm so out of the loop...Amwx is in Storm Mode? crap...apparently i've missed something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Funny, how people would be panicking if the NAM wasn't on board. We got the NAM, and remain on the northern fringe of a weaker GFS. I remain optimistic for at least another hour, but if we don't get any love or north trend on the Euro, think the writing will be on the wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 why? because it does not show enough snow for your back yard? Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Funny, how people would be panicking if the NAM wasn't on board. We got the NAM, and remain on the northern fringe of a weaker GFS. I remain optimistic for at least another hour, but if we don't get any love or north trend on the Euro, think the writing will be on the wall Don't think so, but I don't know so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This storm has brought out the weenie in a TON of you guys from D.C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.